Special elections in 2019 have given few signs for 2020. Republicans flipped Democratic seats early in the year. Democratic victories and losses were trailing results in previous statewide and national elections. But not by much. The mixed results continued through June.
Then the Democrats showed up. They flipped a Republican state legislative seat in Pennsylvania. Democrats lost races in the South respectably for state legislative seats where there had been no Democratic opposition for years. A Progressive Mayor (running as an Independent) was narrowly reelected defeating a Republican in San Antonio.
Two primaries that were clues to what was happening within parties. In the race for DA of the Borough of Queens in New York City, the Borough president ran against an upstart, endorsed by the local member of the Squad – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The Borough President may have won by 60 votes, although a lawsuit may require that provisions votes be counted. Early in July 9 there were results in a Republican primary in the Third Congressional District in North Carolina. Dr. Greg Murphy defeated Dr. Joan Perry 60-40. This is a Republican district where the Republican primary winner is the favorite in a special election. This was a race between two doctors. A urologist v a pediatrician. A man v. a woman. The Pediatrician argued that a women can be a conservative, too. She did not convince the Republican primary electorate.
Republicans in North Carolina missed a chance to add to the small number of Republican women in Congress. Furthermore, two Republican women announced they were not running for reelection – Susan Brooks from Indiana’s 5th Congressional District and Martha Robey from Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. The Republican Party is becoming a party of white men.