Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website:
July 22nd , 2023 Len’s Political Note #576 Frank Mrvan Indiana 01
2024 General Election
From 2000 to 2020, every Democratic Presidential candidate carried IN 01, a district that includes Gary and Hammond. By 14 points in 2000. By 9 points in 2020. This is a predominantly white working-class district: 60%+ white, almost 20% Black, almost 15% Hispanic. Median household income is a little over $64,000.
Compare that to, say, MI 08, a poorer, whiter working-class district that includes Flint and Saginaw and has also had a Democratic Congressman for years and years. Median household income is around $53,500. The district is more than 80% white. Since 2000, the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the district was Barack Obama in 2008.
Or compare them both to OH 09 which includes Toledo and Sandusky, stretches west to the Indiana border, and has had the lengthy tenure of a Democratic Member of Congress. It has a median household income of less than $60,000 and is just under 70% white, 16% Black, 10% Hispanic. Donald Trump carried the district in 2016 and 2020.
The districts have changed with redistricting and generalizations probably based on past votes should not be made based on three Congressional districts. MI 08 has become more Republican with redistricting, but still elected a Democratic Member of Congress in 2022. OH 09 became much more Republican after redistricting and still elected a Democratic Member of Congress in 2022. IN 01 did not change a lot after redistricting. In 2022, it reelected its Democratic Member of Congress – but by a closer margin than in the past,
Why then should we be more worried about IN 01’s Frank Mrvan than we are about MI 08’s Dan Kildee or OH 09’s Marcy Kaptur? Marcy Kaptur is a Democratic dynasty all by herself. First elected in 1982, the mid-term of Ronald Reagan’s first term, she is the longest serving woman in the history of Congress. Dan Kildee was elected in 2012, replacing his retiring uncle. Frank Mrvan, elected in 2020, is the son of a long-standing State Senator from Hammond. What is it that made Frank Mrvan’s 2022 race closer in IN 01 than in those other two districts?
Of the three districts, IN 01 is the least white. A more diverse district did not make for an easier Democratic win. Of the three districts, IN 01 has the highest median household income. Prosperity may make a working class district more likely to vote Republican. Nevertheless, Frank Mrvan has a lot going for him
Frank Mrvan had a political life before running for Congress. He grew up in Hammond, a small city whose current third largest employer, after Franciscan Health and the Hammond school district, is a hotel/casino that opened in 1996. The casino is part of the revitalization of this small city that has grown to be slightly larger than its steel town neighbor Gary.
Frank Mrvan graduated from the local high school and has his BA from Ball State University in Muncie – 3 ½ hours from home. After college, he worked briefly as a pharmaceutical salesman and as a licensed mortgage broker. Following in the footsteps of his father, it appears as if it never occurred to Frank Mrvan that he would have other than a political life. He was elected as a Township Trustee and served in that role for 15 years. He was President of the Lake County Young Democrats, Treasurer of the Highland Democrats, and a member of the Hessville Democrats and the FDR Club.
Frank Mrvan saw his opportunity in 2020 and ran for a Congress. Peter Visclosky, who had represented Indiana’s First congressional district since 1984, announced he would not run for reelection in 2020. Visclosky had been a pro-union, anti-free trade guy and had served as chair of the Congressional Steel Caucus. He had hopes that hi-tech would provide jobs for America’s blue-collar workforce. He wanted to ensure that the American military was supplied with weapons manufactured in America while, at the same time, opposed military adventures. He had been one of the 100+ Democrats who opposed the Iraq War Resolution.
Ten Democrats ran in the 2020 primary. Frank Mrvan defeated the mayor of Hammond, Tom McDermott, Jr. by a little more than 4,000 votes. McDermott was another politician following in his father’s footsteps. His dad had been Mayor of Hammond before him, but as a Republican. Frank Mrvan won the general election in 2020 by a substantial margin.
He has been a Congressman following in Peter Visclosky’s footsteps. Frank Mrvan was chosen as co-chair of the Congressional Steel Caucus before he was sworn into office. He entered office as the country was reeling from the pandemic. One of his earliest votes was for the America Rescue Plan as a result of which Gary became a federal vaccination site. Cautious about being too quick to ease up on pandemic controls, he opposed lifting vaccination mandates for health care workers and ending the Covid national emergency early. His focus was to serve his constituents.
Frank Mrvan is a Roman Catholic and long-time member of the Knights of Columbus. He went to public schools and separates religion from his public service. He highlights his support of the Women’s Health Protection Act and counts support for women’s reproductive rights as one of his most important legislative goals – along with ensuring health care for everyone, strengthening the local economy, and responding effectively to emergencies.
Frank Mrvan has relished being on the Veteran’s Affairs Committee and is the ranking member of the Subcommittee on oversight and investigations of veterans’ matters. When there is a focus on whether the country is serving its veterans well, his role can be powerful. He describes his goal as ensuring that the United States spends enough to take care of veterans while it spends lavishly on weapons of war.
Frank Mrvan warrants support our support. He is establishing himself as Marcy Kaptur and Dan Killdee have and as his predecessor, Peter Visclosky did. Provide Frank Mrvan with the support he needs.
Vulnerable Democratic Members of Congress in the Midwest
First term incumbent Eric Sorensen of IL 17 which runs from Rockford south to Dekalb, Champaign, and Springfield is #12 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats. A local prosperous businessman is the only Republican opponent so far.
First term Akron based incumbent Emilia Sykes of OH 13 is # 24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats. Three Republicans have announced including the candidate Emilia Sykes defeated in 2022.
First term Cincinnati based incumbent Greg Landsman of OH 01 is #26 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats. One Republican has announced his candidacy.
Angie Craig was first elected in 2016. She represents MN 02 which is south of Minneapolis and St. Paul and is #27 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democrats. Two Republicans have announced their candidacy.
Democratic State Senator Curtis Hertel will be the Democratic candidate for Lansing and E. Lansing based MI 07. He has not yet announced his candidacy for Congress. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin would have been #29 on Len’s List of vulnerable incumbents if she were running for Congress instead of running for the US Senate. The seat is much more vulnerable without an incumbent running. A Republican former State Senator has announced his candidacy for what is expected to be a close race.
Democrats Midwestern Republican Congressional Targets
Republican first term incumbent John James of Warren based MI 10 is #3 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans. Four Democrats have raised announced their candidacy: Gun Safety Activist Emily Bush, Attorney Brian Jaye, Ex County Judge and 2020 candidate Carl Marlinga, and Financial Planner Diane Young.
Republican first term incumbent Zach Nunn of Des Moines based IA 03 is #5 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans. So far, the only Democrat to announce is Life Coach and Therapist Tracy Limon
Don Bacon was first elected to Omaha based NE 02 in 2016. He is #11 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans. He will be opposed by former State Senator Tony Vargas who gave him a tough race in 2022.
Republican first term incumbent Derrick Van Orden in WI #03 along the state’s southwest border with Minnesota is #18 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans. So far the only Democrat to announce is Businesswoman Becky Edwards.
Marianette Miller-Meeks in Davenport and Iowa City based IA 01 is #22 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans. So far no Democrats have announced for this position.
