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June 20th , 2023 Political Note #569 Vicente Gonzalez Texas 34
2024 General Election
Before the 2022 election, Vicente Gonzalez, a business oriented, moderate Democrat had a decision to make. Should he run in Texas 15, which he had been representing? Should he switch to nearby Texas 34 which, after redistricting, could be more appealing? Vicente Gonzalez won the 2000 election for Texas 15 by 2.9 points in 2020; Joe Biden carried the district by the smallest bit more – 3.1%.
Texas 15 was a long, skinny, north-south district beginning at the Mexican border near the City of McAllen. The straight line continued east of San Antonio to a point near the city of New Braunfels. The district is 82% Hispanic and has a median household income of a touch above $50,000.
Texas 34 was east of and nearly parallel to Texas 15. Wider and stubbier than Texas 15, it also begins on the Mexican border, in this case near the city of Brownsville. The district continues north along the Texas coast, including barrier islands, up to, but not including, Corpus Christi. Texas 34 is 85% Hispanic and has a median household income of close to $45,000. Joe Biden carried the district in 2020 by 15 points. Beto O’Rourke would carry the district by 13 points in his US Senate race.
Vicente Gonzalez chose District 34, the district from which Filemon Vela resigned in March, 2022. Vicente Gonzaelz won the 2022 election by less than 9 points, by a margin of 11,432 votes. Not exactly a stranger to the district, he was, nevertheless, not quite as welcome as Beto O’Rourke. The relatively poor margin of victory may have been a result of pro-Gonzalez blogger Jerry McHale attacking Flores with anti-Hispanic rhetoric.
Fileman Vela, Jr. had represented Texas 34 since 2012. When he resigned, he announced he would resign to take a position with Aikin Gump, presumably as a lobbyist. The special election to replace him was scheduled for June, 2022. Although two Republicans and two Democrats ran, one of each were serious – Republican Mayra Flores and Democrat Dan Sanchez. Dan Sanchez may have anticipated that Vicente Gonzalez would run in Texas 34 in 2024 after serving out his term in in Texas 15.
Sanchez was a respected County Commissioner and was bitterly disappointed that the DCCC, under Sean Patrick Maloney provided no financial support at all. Election to Congress would have been an honor. He was defeated by Mayra Flores 51-43. In this election during which only 28,990 people voted, a 2019 graduate of South Texas College, an anti-abortion and pro QAnon convert to the Republican Party was elected – without even requiring a run off.
As a Member of Congress, Mayra Flores expressed her support for school choice and her opposition to same sex marriage as well as abortion. The wife of a Border Control Agent, she served on the Border Security subcommittee of the Homeland Security Committee. She was unable to serve beyond the portion of a term for which she was elected.
Vicente Gonzalez defeated Mayra Flores in the 2022 General Election by a 53-44 margin, by 11,355 votes. More voted than in the special election, but the general election attracted only 134,239. For 2044, two Republicans have so far lined up hoping to defeat Vicente Gonzalez – Businessman Mauro Garza and Pastor Luis Carbrera. Carbrera is an evangelical preacher whose political activism included the slogan Make America Godly Again. Mauro Garza, CEO of M. Garza Enterprises, Inc., a regional waste management firm, is reported to have a net worth of $1 million. He has enough resources to contribute to his own campaign, but he cannot self-fund.
Vincent Gonzalez, however, is an experienced politician. He parents did not have academic expectations for their kids. He had childhood businesses for himself, but his route did not initially appear to be through college. He dropped out of high school and later got his GED. Trying to make his way, he saw the value in a college education. He completed an Associate’s Degree in Business and Finance at a local community college, a BS degree from the Emory-Riddle Aeronautical University, which is situated at the Corpus Christi Naval Air Station, and finally his law degree from Texas Wesleyan. His experience at Emory-Riddle, a school dominated by members of the military, sharpened his ambitions. He would travel the world. And he has. He is proud of having visited more than 100 countries,
In 1997, the year after Vicente Gonzalez graduated from law school, he settled in McAllen, 150 miles south of his Corpus Christi home. He founded his own law firm in McAllen working as a plaintiff’s attorney. He was good at that, earning membership in the Million Dollar Advocates Forum. Attorneys are eligible for the Forum if they achieve a court award or a settlement of a million dollars or more. He was admitted to the New York Bar and authorized to appear before the US Supreme Court.
Immersed in the life of South Texas, where immigration, the local agriculture, and the local oil industry dominate local politics and local culture, Vicente Gonzalez will not be successfully attacked for being insufficiently pro-business. He brought his views as a moderate Democrat to Congress and joined the Problem Solvers Caucus composed of an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. He has stayed away from ideologically oriented caucuses and focused on local issues. He belongs to the Hispanic Caucus, the Oil and Gas Caucus, and the Renewable Energy Caucus. He tied his local and international interests together by joining the Uzbekistan Caucus – following the needs of a country that shared a crop with South Texas (cotton) and a resource (fossil fuels). He represented his state and country on the US – Mexico Interparliamentary Group. In 2021, he was one of the nine moderate and conservative Democrats who insisted on separating the Infrastructure bill from the rest of Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan. The result was a bipartisan law that has already begun to be successful enough to attract Republican Congressional opponents to local groundbreakings and ribbon cuttings for crucial local improvements.
In general Vicente Gonzalez has been scandal free. The closest to a scandal was a discovery that, for several years, he and his wife, the former Lorena Saenz, a teacher and school administrator in McAllen and nearby Edinburgh, claimed a homestead exemption on the house they lived in and, inappropriately, on the house she owned and was living in before they married. He promised to repay any taxes that he owed – an amount in the low five figures.
Vicente Gonzalez is #16 on my list of vulnerable incumbents because his victory margin was only 11,432 votes. Because so few people vote in districts that are overwhelmingly Hispanic, an 11,432-vote margin might be considered comfortable. Our national politics, especially during a Presidential year, are unpredictable. Who knows what might prompt a large vote from just one segment of a community. We need both national policies and Democratic Party strategies to get the entire community of eligible voters to vote regularly.
Provide Vicente Gonzalez the support he needs to encourage a large turnout. He is an important voice and we need his voice and his vote in Congress.
Five More Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents in the Southwest
Incumbent Gabe Vasquez New Mexico 02. In his first term, he is an environmentalist for the people and was elected to a district that keeps swinging back and forth from D to R and back to D. He is #1 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell, who he ousted from Congress, is running to get the seat back. See Len’s Political Note #536
Incumbent Yadira Caraveo Colorado 08. In her first term, she is a pediatrician and a state legislator whose personal commitment has been to serve low income children, her political commitment is to create a society where everyone has a decent opportunity for a good life. She is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republican has announced a candidacy for this seat yet. See Len’s Political Note #537
Incumbent Susie Lee Nevada 03. In her third term, beginning in 2018, she has won by 10 points, 3 points, and 4 points. He is #13 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents. Now divorced from the owner of several casinos, she was a philanthropist and community leader before she was a politician. Two Republicans have already announced their candidacy for this seat – a former state senator and a right wing columnist. See Len’s Political Note #533
Incumbent Steve Horsford Nevada 04. In his fourth term, an African American, he Igrew up with the responsibility of being head of the family from a very early age. He is a former majority leader of the State Senate and is #15 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. See Len’s Political Note #568
Incumbent Dina Titus Nevada 01. In her 8th term in Congress, she served 20 years in the Nevada Senate after coming to Nevada from the South to be an academic and to teach history. In her most recent election, she won by almost 6 points and is #20 on Len’s List of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. No Republican has, as yet, announced for this seat. See Len’s Political Note #444 for 2022
Five Vulnerable Republican Incumbents in the Southwest and, where we have them already, Democratic Challengers.
Republican Incumbent Lauren Boebert Colorado 03. In her 2nd term in Congress, she is a former restaurateur and far right activist with a particular interest in supporting gun rights. In her most recent election she won by 546 votes. She is #1 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and will be facing Democrat Adam Frisch, a former member of the Aspen City Council, and the candidate who came close to defeating her in 2022. See Len’s Political Note #523
Republican Incumbent Dave Schweikert Arizona 01. In his 8th consecutive term and 9th term as a Congressman, the House ethics committee has been critical of his handling campaign funds. He is #8 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents. Five Democrats have already announced they are running for this seat and there are rumors about a fifth. These include ex Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroeme, ex CEO of the financial firm Aspiration Inc Andrei Cherny, State Rep Amish Shah, orthodontist. Andrew Horn, and ex TV anchor Marlene Galan Woods.
Republican Incumbent Juan Ciscomani Arizona 06. In his first term as a Congressman, he was a senior advisor to the Arizona Governor. #10 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents, he will almost certainly face Kirsten Engel, who was his opponent in 2022. She is an environmental attorney, a former state rep and state Senator, and a faculty member at the University of Arizona Law School. Two other Democrats have announced – Businessman Jack O’Donnell and Regional Legislator Vieri Tenuta. See Len’s Political Note #558
Republican Incumbent Monica De La Cruz Texas 15. In her first term as a Congresswoman, she was a realtor before she was elected to Congress. She is #20 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and will face Michelle Vallejo, who runs, with her father, a flea market. In 2022, she was was handicapped by a very close primary run off and a lack of funds. She will be handicapped by neither in 2024. See Len’s Political Note #567
Republican Incumbent Eli Crane Arizona 02. I A former Navy SEAL in his first term as a Congressman, he joined with the most extreme Republicans in Congress after defeating a popular moderate Democrat in a district gerrymandered so that a Democrat would find it difficult to win. He is #25 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and could lose only in a heavily Democratic year against a strong Democrat who could be a moderate to his extremism. No Democratic candidate has yet announced for this seat.
