Political Note #555 Opposing the Vulnerable House Republicans

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April 21st , 2023       Political Note #555 The Vulnerable Republicans

2024            General Election

Adam Frisch CO 03. Sara Klee Hood NY 22. Kirsten Engel AZ 06

Democratic contenders for vulnerable Republican seats

Using a simple and crude measure, the margin of victory in 2022, previously I identified vulnerable Democrats.  Most recently, using that measure, I wrote about Susie Lee of Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. (Len’s Political Note 553). Using the same measure, the margin of victory in 2022, I have compiled a similar list of vulnerable incumbent Republicans.

I created that list so I can recommend Democratic candidates to you; candidates for whom donations could actually make a difference to elect the Democrat.  However, in April, 2023 – 18 months before the 2024 election, we rarely know who the Democratic candidate will be against a vulnerable Republican Member of Congress.  We don’t even know which Democrats will enter each race.  Sometimes, we can make a good judgment about who the probable Democratic nominee will be.

Consider this Political Note a kind of warm up.  It lets you know who the vulnerable Republicans are and what we now know about their opponents.  When it seems clear who the probable Democratic candidate is, I will write a Note about that candidate.

(In the segment below, the Congressional district, the vote margin, and the Democratic candidate are bolded.  The endangered Republican incumbent is underlined. Consider those Republicans targets. The first three below have candidates who I encourage you to support now)

  1. Colorado 03.   546 vote margin in 2022.  Democrat Adam Frisch, former currency trader and former mayor of Aspen, with little or no outside support, lost to the incumbent former restaurateur and gun regulation opponent Republican Lauren Boebert.  Her weakness is her extremism and her national focus to the exclusion of her constituents. Adam Frisch is running again.  He describes himself as a conservative businessman with progressive social values. It is unlikely that another Democrat will enter the race.  Len’s Political Note #523 tells you more about him.
  2. New York 22. 2,631 vote margin in 2022.  Former Naval Officer Democrat Francis Conole lost to former Naval Officer Republican Brandon Williams, whose ties to the District are not strong.  Perhaps embarrassed by the extent to which he was funded by the now arrested entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, Conole has announced he will not run again.  Sarah Klee Hood, an Air Force veteran, software program manager, and DeWitt Town Councilor who lost a close primary to Conole in 2022 while spending nowhere near as much money has announced her candidacy.
  3. Arizona 06.  5,232 vote margin in 2022.  Democratic environmental attorney Kirsten Engel lost to Juan Ciscomani, a senior aide to the former Republican governor.  Kirsten Engel has announced she would run again.
  4. California  13, 564 vote margin in 2022.  Democrat Adam Gray, former State Assemblyman, lost to incumbent Republican John Duarte, former CEO of Duarte Trees and Vines. John Duarte’s strength is his focus on the district’s agriculture and need for water. One weakness is a substantial fine paid to the US Government for violation of water laws.  Adam Gray has not announced whether or not he would be a candidate again. Democrats Phil Arballo, a Financial Advisor and former Congressional candidate Brad Boyd, a Stanford lecturer on foreign and military policy, and Angelina Sigala, a self-employed public health educator have all announced candidacies.
  5. Michigan 10  1,600 vote margin in 2022. 72 year-old Democratic County Judge Carl Marlinga lost to Republican John James, whose strength is his family wealth, whose weakness was the two US Senate races he had lost. He is an African American running in a majority white district.  Neither Carl Marlinga nor former Congressman Andy Levin have expressed interest in running so far. Financial Planner Diane Young , Attorney Brian Jaye, and fun safety activist Emily Bosch have announced their candidacies.
  6. New York 17. 1,820 vote margin in 2022.  Congressman Sean Paul Maloney, who switched to NY 17 thinking it would be an easier place to win lost to political communication specialist and state assemblyman Mike Lawler. Lawler’s weakness is the Democratic lean of the district.  One probable Democratic candidate who is nearing an announcement is media consultant and small business owner Liz Whitman Gereghty whose sister is the governor of Michigan.
  7. Iowa 03. 2,145 vote margin in 2022.  Incumbent Cindy Axne lost to retired Lt. Colonel, state senator, and cybersecurity expert Zach Nunn who proved to be an effective political communicator.  No Democrat has announced for this seat.
  8. California 22. 3,132 vote margin in 2022. Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas lost to the incumbent and former dairy farmer Republican David Valadao one of whose weaknesses is that the farm he and his brother owned went bankrupt.  Rudy Salas has been encouraged to run again.
  9. Arizona 01. 3,195 vote margin in 2022.  Non-profit, community service organization head Democrat Jevin Hodge lost to the incumbent, David Schweikert.  A former Republican state legislator and county official, David Schweikert has been criticized by the House Ethics Committee for financial improprieties.  Hodge has not expressed interest in running again, but several Democrats have: Ex Corporate CEO and Party Chair Andrei Cherny, Orthodontist Andrew Horn, and State Rep Amish Shah.
  10. New York 19. 4,495 vote margin in 2022. Democratic Attorney Josh Riley lost to County Executive and former state assemblyman Mark Malinaro.  2022 Josh Riley has announced his candidacy as has Insurance Manager Dan Buttermann.  State Senator Michelle Hinchey, daughter of the former Congressman is also considering a run.
  11. Nebraska 02. 5,856 vote margin in 2022. Democratic State Senator Tony Vargas lost to Republican incumbent Don Bacon, who has become a spokesperson for “moderate” Republicans in the current Congress. No Democrats have expressed interest though Tony Vargas has been encouraged to consider running again.
  12. Oregon 05. 7,299 vote margin in 2022. Democratic insurgent Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeated incumbent moderate Democrat Kurt Schroder in the primary before losing to the ex mayor of Happy Valley Lori Chavez-DeRemer. One Democrat has announced for 2024 so far – former Congressional aide and campaign consultant Kevin Easton
  13. Montana 01 7,837 vote margin in 2022. Montana gained a seat in Congress after the 2000 census. Democratic Attorney Monica Tranel lost to former Congressman Ryan Zinke, who had resigned as Secretary of Interior under Trump after being accused of ethical violations and lying about them.  No Democrat has yet expressed interest in running for this seat in 2024 though Monica Tranel has been suggested as a possibility.
  14. New Jersey 07 8,691 vote margin in 2022. Incumbent Tom Malinowski, who had failed to follow Congressional requirements for providing information about stock trades, lost to Tom Kean Jr., a former state senate minority leader and the son of a popular former Republican governor. Although ten or twelve possible Democratic candidates have been mentioned, only State Senator Raymond Lesniak has announced.
  15. New York 04 9,751 vote margin in 2022. Former Democratic Town Supervisor Laura Gillen lost to Anthony D’Espositio, Town Councilman and former New York City cop with several complaints against him.  No Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for this seat.
  16. Virginia 02. 10,109 vote margin in 2022. Democratic Incumbent and former Navy Commander Elaine Luria lost to former Navy helicopter pilot Jen Kiggans. No Democratic candidate has yet expressed interest in this seat.
  17. California 45 10,494 vote margin in 2022, Jay Chen, Lt. Commander in the Naval Reserves, community college trustee, with a history as a bright young man lost to Incumbent Republican Michelle Park Steel. She is the daughter of a Korean expatriate from Shanghai and is married to a member of the RNC Executive Committee. She had been elected to the State Board of Equalization and the County Board of Supervisors. Democratic City Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen has announced her candidacy.  She is the program manager for a large health plan, the daughter of a Vietnamese refugee and a Mexican immigrant. Consumer advocate Cheyenne Hunt is also in the race.  Attorney Aditya Pai recenlthy announced his candidacy.
  18. California 41 11,100 vote margin in 2022. Former prosecutor and LGBTQ activist Will Rollins lost to deeply conservative Republican incumbent Ken Calvert. Will Rollins and another former Democratic candidate have been encouraged to run for this seat.
  19. Wisconsin 03 11,766 vote margin in 2022. After the retirement of a moderate Democratic Congressman, agricultural expert Brad Pfaff lost to anti-LGBTQ and pro gun activist Derrick Van Orden. While no Democrat has expressed interest in the race, suggestions have been made about the candidacy of a businesswoman and a CIA agent.  In addition,  Brad Pfaff has been urged to run again.
  20. California 27 12,732 vote margin in 2022. Former School Board Chair Democrat Christy Smith lost a third close race to US Navy Veteran and Republican incumbent Mike Garcia. Probation office commissioner Franky Carillo who had been wrongly convicted and imprisoned for murder and former CEO George Whitesides are competing for the Democratic nomination.
  21. Texas 15 12,881 vote margin in 2022.  Michelle Vallejo, a young businesswoman and a 35 vote winner of the Democratic primary lost to Republican Realtor Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez.  No Democrat has yet expressed interest in running, though some have suggested that Michelle Vallejo run again. 
  22. New York 03 20,420 vote margin in 2022.  Public Relations firm owner and DNC activist Robert Zimmerman lost to fabulist George Santos.   A Republican primary opponent has announced and about ten other Republicans have been mentioned as possibilities.  More than a half dozen Democrats have been suggested as possibilities as well. The only Democrat to announce so far is County Legislator and former Congressional candidate Josh Lafazan.
  23. Iowa 01 20,774 vote margin in 2022.  State Rep and former television anchor Christine Bohannan lost to Incumbent Marianette Miller-Meeks, an ophthalmologist who had previously lost three elections for this seat, but won in 2020 by 6 votes.  No Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for the seat.
  24. Pennsylvania 10 24,116 vote margin in 2022. Late entry, city councilor Democratic attorney Shamaine Daniels lost to incumbent Scott Perry. Perry was a central figure in the effort to replace the acting Attorney General with a more compliant acting figure as Donald Trump was developing plans to avoid losing the presidency by claiming fraud.  No Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for the seat.
  25. California 03 24,677 vote margin in 2022. Attorney and physician Democrat Kermit Jones lost to attorney and libertarian-like Assemblyman Kevin Kiley. No Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for the seat.
  26. Arizona 02 25,018 vote margin in 2022. Former Chicago police detective, former member of the Chicago Board of Trade moderate Democrat incumbent Tom O’Halleran lost to former Navy Seal Eli Crane who joined the extremists in their extortion of Kevin McCarthy before they allowed his election as Speaker.  Democrats suggested for a run in 2024 are retiring District Attorney Bill Ring and Navajo President Jonathan Nez.
  27. Wisconsin 01 26,785 vote margin in 2022.    Businesswoman and President of Downtown Jaynesville Ann Roe lost to Incumbent Brian Steil, who has been an aide to House Speaker Paul Ryan, an executive for a plastics manufacturer, and a Scott Walker appointee to the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents the year after Walker initiated his effort to eliminate the liberal arts from the University.  No Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for the seat.
  28. Florida 13 27,611 vote margin in 2022. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn lost to Anna Paulina Luna who is as brash and outspoken as Lauren Boebert and as reliable as George Santos. Like Santos and Boebert, she joined the Republican extremists holding Kevin McCarthy hostage.   She may be as Hispanic as Santos is Jewish. Her father was named Mayerhofer. A Washington Post story could find little to support her claims of a childhood beset by crime and poverty.   Notwithstanding the apparent fabrications which should make her vulnerable, no Democrats have yet expressed interest in running for the seat.
  29. Tennessee 05. 29,910 vote margin in 2022. Democratic State Senator Heidi Campbell lost to County Mayor Andy Ogles who defeated a former State Speaker of the House in a 7 person Republican primary.  Ogles appears to be the third Republican fabulist in Congress.  This Nashville Rep lied about his college major, about being an economist, and about being an internationally recognized expert in sex trafficking.  Although he stops short of claiming he is Jewish, he makes up for it by sending out Christmas cards showing his family armed with assault rifles.  No Democrats have expressed interest in the race.

Other Republican DCCC targets whose victory margins were too large to be included on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans include:

  1. FL 27             Maria Elvira Salazar won by 34,634
  2. PA 01             Inc Brian Fitzpatrick by 35,762
  3. CA 40            Inc Young Kim who won by 38,867

A few statistics for Len’s list of Vulnerable Republicans

States with more than one vulnerable Republican in the House:
California                   6

New York                   5

Arizona                      3

Wisconsin                  2

Consider this a hint to the DCCC and the DNC regarding where to put resources.

Number of Fabulists among the vulnerable Republicans

Three:  Call them the The Three Stooges

George Santos NY 4, Anna Paulina Luna FL 13, Andy Ogles TN 05

Democrats to donate to.  I have not included districts where more than one Democrat announced.  I recommend waiting until time creates a clear front runner or until a primary creates a nominee. The number of districts in this “Prime Territory” is an indication of just how early in the campaign this is.

Democrats to support now (or soon –  when you receive a Len’s Political Note supporting the candidate)

Adam Frisch                        CO 03            Unlikely to have any primary opposition. Len’s Political Note #523

Sarah Klee Hood                NY 22             Her previous run puts her in a pretty good position to be the probable nominee.

Kirsten Engel                      AZ 06             A former state rep, an environmental attorney, a professor, she ran and came close in 2022. Her principal drawback is that her career had her located all over the country.

Democrats who could evolve to be probable nominees

Liz Whitman Gereghty        NY 17             In the fall, there was a story that former Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones was moving to Sleepy Hollow; that does not appear to have happened.  But Liz Whitman Gereghty has not formally announced yet and does not have an account to accept donations.

Josh Riley                  NY 19             He ran the 9th closest losing Democratic race in the country and has a good chance to win this time.  The other Democrat running is Insurance Manager Dan Butterman. He has no website yet and his presence in the campaign is insufficient to challenge Riley.  However, State Senator Michelle Hinchey, daughter of the late Maurice Hinchey, the former Congressman, is considering a run.