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April 1st , 2023 Political Note #550 Jon Tester US Senate Montana
General Election. 2024
In 2006, when Jon Tester was elected to the US Senate from Montana, the other Senator was Democrat Max Baucus. Montana’s Governor was Democrat Brian Schweitzer.
Let that sink in for a minute. Less than 20 years ago, the three highest offices that Montana could bestow were held by Democrats. That was not unusual for Montana. Gradually, that dominance slipped away.
This is not to say that Montana was a Democratic state. Since 1920, Montana has voted for four Democratic presidential candidates: FDR (four times) Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Bill Clinton. Note the non-east coast or west-coast origins of the last three – Missouri, Texas, and Arkansas.
Consider the races where Democrats lost their advantage in Montana. And then consider 2024, where we need Jon Tester to continue as the US Senator from Montana.
2014 – US Senate
Max Baucus had been a Senator since 1978. He had an awkward relationship with President Barack Obama who was elected many years after Max Baucus joined the Senate. Strongly opposed to a single payer plan, Baucus was very tough reviewing the Affordable Care Act. He eventually came through and retired from the Senate after being appointed Ambassador to China in 2014. John Walsh, Montana’s former Lt. Governor and Adjutant General, was appointed Senator in Baucus’s place. Walsh withdrew his candidacy for election after accusations that he had plagiarized a paper while at the Army Command and General Staff College. Republican Congressman Steve Daines won the November election, clobbering Amanda Curtis, the President of the state Public Employees — 58-40.
2020 – Governor
A former staffer for the previous Attorney General and for the Secretary of State, a graduate of Columbia Law School, Steve Bullock was elected Governor, replacing international irrigation specialist and fellow Democrat, termed out David Schweitzer who had completed 8 years as governor. Popular for his even handedness and calm, Steve Bullock was the only Democrat elected statewide in 2016. He was particularly appreciated for his effective handling of the pandemic. Bullock was termed out in 2020. The Democratic nominee was Mike Cooney, a local who worked his way up the ladder twice. First elected to the State Senate as a 22 year old, later elected Secretary of State, his elimination of corruption in that office and effort to make it as non-partisan as possible was insufficient to win election as governor in 2000. He returned to the State Senate, was appointed to an Executive Office, and then as Lt., Governor in 2014 to replace John Walsh. He remained Steve Bullock’s Lt. Governor until 2020 when he ran and lost again for Governor, this time by a margin of 54-41 to Greg Gianforte.
Pause
Democrats cannot win in Montana routinely. Someone who represents public employees invites being seen as a stereotypical Democrat. Someone who serves as a Lt. Governor has a substantial task in demonstrating he is a leader. Someone, no matter how popular, as Steve Bullock was, who insists that he does not want to be a Senator is unlikely to get elected to the US Senate.
2024
When Jon Tester ran for the US Senate in 2006, Montana had elected only two Republican Senators since the Constitutional Amendment that made US Senator an elective office. Jon Tester defeated one of them, Conrad Burns.
Jon Tester brought to the contest his experience as a farmer, his story of losing three fingers as a nine-year old working in his father’s farm butcher shop, a Bachelor’s Degree in Music, two years of teaching music while working on the farm, and five years as a school board member and chairman. He had also spent 8 years in the State Senate, serving as Minority Leader and then as President of the Senate. ‘
Through it all, Jon Tester was a farmer. After teaching for two years, in 1980 he turned to farming full time. In 1985, he did something surprising, more than surprising maybe. He became an organic farmer. These days there are 156 organic farms in Montana; 246,000 acres in the state are devoted to organic farming. Jon Tester’s 1800 acres are among those acres. His 1985 decision was unusual. Even now, according to Global Trade, Montana is not among the 15 largest organic farming states in the country.
In 1998, Jon Tester tried partisan politics. His neighbor, a Republican state Senator, retired. Jon Tester won the seat. By 2001, he was minority whip; by 2003; minority leader; and by 2005, with the Democrats in the majority, he was Senate President.
In 2006, when Jon Tester ran for the Senate, he was fortunate in his primary opponent – State Auditor John Morrison. Morrison’s reputation never recovered from disclosure of his affair with the wife of a businessman who the State Auditor’s office had investigated. Outspent 2-1, Jon Tester won the primary easily. He had similar good fortune opposing Senator Conrad Burns. Despite the Republican spending three times what the Democrat spent, Burns could not escape opprobrium for having taken money from the scandalous Jack Abramoff. Burns was so rattled in the campaign that he violated a sacred political rule – do not criticize firefighters. His public complaint that firefighters had done a “piss-poor job” putting out a forest fire was off-putting all by itself.
One way to understand a politician is to consider what or who he or she opposes. Elected to the Senate, Jon Tester opposed lobbyists. He complained that Washington was controlled by K Street cronies and invited a retired Montana Supreme Court Justice to do an audit of his own office to check on any taint of lobbyist influence.
Another way that Jon Tester established his bona fides as a Senator who thought for himself was by not being a routine “yes” for nominations – whether dealing with a Democratic or Republican President.
In 2013, as Chair of the Banking Committee’s Securities, Insurance and Investment subcommittee be opposed President Obama’s plan to appoint Larry Summers Chair of the Federal Reserve. An extremely bright and arrogant economist, Summers, the son of two economists, had a distinctive ability to provoke progressive Democrats and others who are not so progressive. President Obama told those who discouraged him about the appointment not to believe everything they read in the Huffington Post about Summers. Some suggest that the story about Summers’ resigning from his five year stint as Harvard President is actually worse than his remarks about women and math. In any case, Jon Tester’s opposition appears to have led to Larry Summers withdrawing his name from consideration for head of the Fed. Janet Yellen got the job instead.
In 2017, Jon Tester opposed the appointment of Jeff Sessions. More than likely, Trump nominated Sessions to be Attorney General because he saw the Senator from Alabama as sufficiently racist. Jon Tester’s opposition to the appointment did not touch on race. Jon Tester focused on two things – Sessions opposition to the Violence Against Women Act and Sessions support for the Patriot Act.
Those were easy issues for Jon Tester, who had gradually come to grips with and to accept some new cultural issues – same sex marriage, among them. He was clearer on old cultural issues – protecting women, for as an example. Jon Tester had opposed the Patriot Act because of its intrusiveness. It authorized of invasions of privacy to track down terrorists. Jon Tester saw the United States as terrorizing people by tracking their private conversations.
During the Trump administration, Jon Tester opposed the appointment of Mike Pompeo twice – to head the CIA and to be Secretary of State. Jon Tester’s opposition to Pompeo in the CIA was an extension of his concern for the government’s intrusion into people’s privacy. Later, considering Pompeo’s nomination for Secretary of State, he said Pompeo did not measure up to his expectation for someone in that role – an honest broker who was a tough negotiator and who believes that war is a last resort. Had he expanded on that statement, Jon Tester might have had to explain why he thought Pompeo was not honest, not an effective negotiator, and too quick to be willing to go to war.
Jon Tester also opposed one of Trump’s top sycophants – Trump’s physician Ronny Jackson. Complaints about Jackson came to Jon Tester as Chair of the Veterans’ Affairs Committee by which Jackson’s nomination would be considered. People who had experience with Jackson in the military complained he had been drunk on duty, had doled out pills with little consideration of actual need, and created a hostile work environment. Jackson withdrew his candidacy and Trump was energized to prevent Jon Tester’s election in 2018 – which Trump could not do.
Jon Tester opposed each of Donald Trump’s nominees for the Supreme Court. He opposed Neil Gorsuch for refusing to respond to questions on issues that were important to Jon Tester. He saw Gorsuch as a danger to privacy – the same concerns he had about Trump’s executive appointments and the Patriot Act. His other great concern with Gorsuch was the probability of further erosion of limits on funding of campaigns. With Brett Kavanaugh, he focused again on the issue of privacy. Jon Tester expressed further concerns about what position Kavanaugh would take on women’s control of their own health. Finally, he expressed concerned about the allegations of sexual assault. Jon Tester’s opposition to Amy Coney Barrett’s appointment was simpler. An appointment as important as a member of the Supreme Court of the United States of America, he thought, should not be rushed.
No need to rush with your support of Jon Tester. This is an election that will happen in November, 2024. But consider supporting him now, anyhow. There is no Democratic Senator more vulnerable than Jon Tester is. Democrats currently have a 51-49 advantage in the Senate (50-49-1 if you don’t count Kyrsten Sinema as a Democrat). It won’t take much to lose that advantage. Make certain that Jon Tester is one of those you support and keep on supporting him through to November, 2024.
Candidate Donations
A reader asked – all well and good to get advice about candidates to donate to, but if I wanted to donate to just one candidate; or maybe just a few candidates, who should I donate to?
Do not feel obliged to follow my advice. I’m not sure I will follow my advice, I’m not sure that I won’t change my advice. But this is an effort to respond to that request. Maybe it is not such a great effort. I have given you 16 people to give money to. And that is only the beginning. Before November, 2024, there will be many others to donate money to.
Start with the First priority and go on from there. Do the best you can. I have.
First priority
Timing:
Donate to candidates whose elections are coming up soon, though for April 4 it is almost too late.
April 4, 2023
Janet Protasiewicz for Wisconsin Supreme Court. Will this be a progressive or a conservative court? Will the Court support fair redistricting? Will the Court invalidate a very old Wisconsin law prohibiting abortions? Some describe this as the most important election of 2023. (Judge Janet also has a huge advantage in total funds raised. Take that into account.) Len’s Political Note #528
Jodi Habush Sinykin for Wisconsin Senate District 06. While we wait for redistricting, prevent Wisconsin from having a supermajority in its state senate. Her opponent has announced that if he is elected and Janet Protasiewicz is elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, he will begin impeachment proceedings. Len’s Political Note #529
Second Priority
Let’s get a start on flipping the House of Representatives back to the Democrats in 2024. Support the eight most vulnerable Democratic incumbents and the one Democrat who has begun a campaign that could flip a Republican seat.
We will need more victories in the House, but start with monthly donations (at the level you can afford, knowing that you will be donating to others as well.).
Gabe Vasquez NM 02 won in 2022 by 1,350 votes. Len’s Political Note #536
Yadira Caraveo CO 08 won in 2022 by 1,632 votes. Len’s Political Note #537
Jahana Hayes CT 05 won in 2022 by 2,004 votes. Len’s Political Note #542
Marie Gluesenkamp Peres WA 03 won in 2022 by 2,633 votes. Len’s Political Note #543
Pat Ryan NY 18 won in 2022 by 3,592 votes. Len’s Political Note #485
Susan Wild PA 07 won in 2022 by 5,837 votes. Len’s Political Note #546
Matt Cartwright PA 08 won in 2022 by 7.026 votes. Len’s Political Note #547
Andrea Salinas OR 06 won in 2022 by 7,210 votes. Len’s Political Note #548
Adam Frisch CO 03 lost to Lauren Boebert in 2022 by 546 votes and is running again Len’s Political Note #523
Third Priority
Get a start on preserving the Democratic majority in the US Senate in 2024. There are a lot of vulnerable Democrats and very few vulnerable Republicans.
Jon Tester, Montana is, in my view, the most vulnerable Democrat Len’s Political Note #550
Ruben Gallego, Arizona will be the Democratic nominee. Kyrsten Sinema, the former Democrat and now Independent is up for election. She will complicate matters but will not dominate the contest. Len’s Political Note #544
Fourth Priority
More Timing.
November, 2023
Three Democratic candidates for Governor whose victories would be meaningful, both for their states and nationally.
Andy Beshear, Kentucky for reelection. Len’s Political Note #533
Shawn Wilson, Louisiana to succeed a termed out Democrat. Len’s Political Note #549
Brandon Presley, Mississippi to be the first Democratic Governor of that state in 20 years. Len’s Political Note #535
