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February 20, 2023 Political Note #541 Virginia’s State Senate
2023 General Election
It is possible that Virginia Democrats will regain a majority of the House of Delegates. (See Len’s Political Note #539 and Len’s Political Note #540). Can Virginia Democrats keep their State Senate majority? The Virginia Public Access Project’s look at the new districts suggests that, of the 40 Senate seats, 13 are Strongly Democratic and 13 are Strongly Republican. VPAP suggests 6 seats lean Democratic, 5 lean Republican, and 3 are Competitive.
Here are two of the three Competitive Seats (The other needs to wait until after the June. Primary)
Danica Roem for Virginia State Senate District 30. VPAP — Competitive
Inc. Danica Roem’s new district may prove to be less competitive than VPAP expects. West of Fairfax, McAuliffe carried what is now District 30 by less than four points. Danica Roem began 2023 with $175,000 for her campaign. The Republican who appeared to be her opponent is now running for another office.
You might expect Danica Roem to be a target of the Republicans, even a target of national Republicans. She is, after all, the first openly transgendered person to be elected and to serve in a state legislature. She was born in Prince William County, raised in Manassas, located at the southern tip of this newly created district. She attended the local public school through third grade, then All Saints School for grades 4-8, Paul VI high school in Fairfax, and St. Bonaventure for college. After college she worked as a journalist in Virginia and Maryland, as a news editor beginning in 2015. She had begun hormone therapy in 2012 and was elected to the House of Delegates in 2019. In the legislature, she has been a principal Democratic spokesperson on LGBTQ and transgender issues. Expanding Medicaid was a central issue in her 2019 campaign.
Dabica Roem’s initial Republican opponent, Ian Lovejoy, has changed his target. He is running for a safe Republican seat in the House of Delegates. Even though Danica Roem does not have an opponent now, she is likely to have one. This is not a safe Democratic district. Help Danica Roem get ready for her unknown opponent.
Inc Monty Mason for Virginia State Senate District 24. VPAP — Competitive
Incumbent Monty Mason is defending his seat in a district on the north side of the bay from Norfolk. It is north of Hampton and includes part of Newport News as well as all of Williamsburg. Two-thirds of the district is his former District 1. Governor Youngkin carried what is now District 24 by 3.5%. 55% of the district is white. More than 25% of the district is Black.
At the end of 2022, Monty Mason had available $575,000 – nearly doubling the amount Republican Danny Diggs had. Monty Mason is a senior figure at Visa, specializing in managing risks and preventing fraud. He was born in Farmville, graduated from William & Mary, was elected to the House of Delegates in 2013 and to the State Senate in a special election in 2016. His website says his principal interests in the legislature have been child welfare, including the Foster Care system, and the development of an offshore wind project. The Follow the Money project notes that his largest contributors have included finance, insurance, and real estate interests. Planned Parenthood is among his donors.
Monty Mason’s opponent, Danny Diggs, retired as York County Sheriff after 45 years in law enforcement. He is proud he was a leader in requiring body cams and replacing batons with tasers. The top of his website includes a picture of him in uniform aiming a pistol. He calls himself a common-sense conservative which appears to mean he is “tough on crime,” opposed to abortions, and for competition in health care.
Winning this competitive district is a big part of creating a Democratic majority Virginia Senate. Provide Monty Mason with the resources to win.
Are any of the six Lean Democratic districts vulnerable?
Senate District 29 could be vulnerable. The district has two Democrats running, so the analysis will wait until after the June primary.
Are any of the five Lean Republican Districts vulnerable?
Senate Districts 04 and 17 are worth looking at now. Senate District 27 should be considered after the June primary when we will know which of two Democrats is the candidate.
Incumbent John Edwards for Virginia Senate District 04. VPAP – Lean Republican
Virginia Senate District 04 is southwest of Lynchburg. Youngkin carried it by 10 points, and the Republican has a $40,000 lead in funds available. That is not nothing, but it is not enough to be intimidating.
Democrat John Edwards was the incumbent in State Senate District 21. Born in 1943, he is younger than Joe Biden. The son of a Judge, he grew up in Roanoke and lives there still. He graduated from Princeton, went on to the Union Theological Seminary, but dropped out to go to the University of Virginia Law School. Before Antonin Scalia was on the Supreme Court, John Edwards worked for him as a writing assistant.
After a decade during which John Edwards was with the Marine Corps JAG and in private practice, he was appointed US Attorney for the Western District of Virginia by President Jimmy Carter. In 1993, he was elected to the Roanoke City Council where he served as Vice Mayor. In 1995, he defeated an incumbent Republican for the State Senate and has been in the State Senate ever since. Among notable achievements he describes are requiring character education in schools, requiring health insurers to cover pre-existing conditions, expanding solar energy in the state, and developing rules of evidence for the State Courts.
The Republican candidate, Dave Suetterlein, is the former Senate District 19 incumbent. The principal achievements Suetterlein describes as a legislator include a fight against high electricity rates, legislation authorizing concealed carry reciprocity with other states, and an increase in the standard deduction for the Virginia income tax. A Realtor, he was elected to the Senate in 2015. Before that, he was a staffer for Senator Ken Cuccinelli, who, as Virginia’s Attorney General rejected climate science and opposed homosexuality by defending anti-sodomy laws. Later, Cuccinelli served as Donald Trump’s Acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security and Acting Director of the US Citizenship and Immigration Service. Dave Suetterlein is a Ken Cuccinelli Republican.
Help John Edwards win this election.
Delegate Clint Jenkins for Virginia Senate District 17. VPAP – Lean Republican
Virginia Senate District 17 runs along the Virginia-North Carolina border with an extention north to Norfolk on the eastern side of the district and another extention north to Petersburg on the western end of the district. Youngkin carried this area by 5 points. This State Senate district is 50% white, 40% Black. Clint Jenkins has not filed a campaign finance report. Nor has one of the Republican candidates. The other Republican, Hermie Sadler, had $286,000 to start 2023.
Clint Jenkins joined the army after graduating from John F. Kennedy High School. He earned a BA from St. Leo and worked in a shipyard when he returned home. Now he manages a Real Estate office. He has continued his schooling, studying at the Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary.
Clint Jenkins was elected to District 76 of the House of Delegates in 2019, reelected in 2021. While serving as a Delegate, he was a Presidential Elector in 2020, voting, of course, for Joe Biden. He is Chair of Virginia’s Third Congressional District Democratic Party for which Bobby Scott is the Representative.
In the legislature, Clint Jenkins has opposed efforts to restrict voting including prohibitions against drop boxes, restrictions on who can vote absentee, and limits on early voting. He has supported gun safety – opposing the repeal of the red flag law. And he has supported reforms in the juvenile justice system including a study of transferring the Juvenile Justice Department to the Department of Health and Human Services. His top donor was the conservation oriented Clean Virginia Fund.
The Republican opponent will be either Republican Delegate Emily Brewer or former stock car race driver and current professional wrestler promoter Hermie Sadler. She is owner of a wine and beer shop, advocate for gun ownership, opponent of abortions, and supporter of what she calls pro-business positions. He raced stock cars from 1993 to 2019. His effort to promote professional wrestling has been complicated by feuds with other promoters. He describes himself as a non-politician fed up with politics as usual.
Virginia and Senate District 17 would be well served with Clint Jenkins as a State Senator. Provide him with some resources to get there.
After the June primary, I will look at the following:
House of Delegates District 57 – Competitive District
House of Delegates District 84 – Competitive District
House of Delegates District 82 – Competitive District
House of Delegates District 55 — Lean Democratic District
House of Delegates District 41 – Lean Republican District
Senate District 27 – Lean Republican District
With support, Democrats could regain a majority in the House of Delegates and maintain the majority in the State Senate.
UPCOMING ELECTIONS TO INVEST IN (INCLUDING LAST MINUTE OPPORTUNITIES)
February 21 and April 4
Virginia Fourth Congressional District Special Election on February 21
Jennifer McClellan is running to replace the only current vacancy in the US Congress – Virginia’s Four Congressional District. A state senator representing the 9th Senate district, she is the child of a civil rights activist and a university professor. She ran Terry’s McAuliffe’s transition team when he was elected governor in 2013, is vice chair of the Virginia Democratic Party and of the legislature’s Black Caucus. She is the favorite to defeat Pastor and Navy veteran Leon Benjamin, Sr. See Len’s Political Note #527.
New Hampshire Special Election on February 21
House District 8, Rochester Ward 4
Incumbent Chuck Grassie is running because of a rarity. In November, he and former mayor Republican David Walker tied. Because New Hampshire’s House of Representatives is so large, you would not expect that a single seat would matter much. This election in February will matter. Republicans have a narrow majority – 201-198. Make it a little narrower (201-199) by helping to reelect Chuck Grassie.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Multiparty Primary on February 21 followed by a General Election on April 4
Janet Protasiewicz is running for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Her win in the February 21st primary and the April 4th General Election would flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court from 4-3 Republican to 4-3 Democrat with enormous implications for issues such as abortion and redistricting. This is an open seat because a Republican Justice retired. The election is in the spring rather than November because Wisconsin strives to limit partisanship in judicial elections. See Len’s Political Note #528
Wisconsin Primary on February 21 followed by a Special Election on April 4
Jody Habush Sinykin is running in the special election for Wisconsin’s State Senate District 08. She is also running to prevent Republicans from having two thirds of the seats in the Wisconsin State Senate. If the current State Senator for the District were not retiring, Republicans would have 22 of the 33 State Senate seats. See Len’s Political Note #529
Kentucky Special Election on February 21
Democratic Metro Councilwoman Cassie Chambers Armstrong is running to fill an open Democratic State Senate seat. She is running against Misty Glin. When Glin ran and lost a race for School Board, she was described by All Eyes on Kentucky as supported by hate groups and election deniers. That may be. Her website for the State Senate race is refreshingly missing those kinds of Republican tropes. Whichever kind of Republican Glin is, you should help out Cassie Chambers Armstrong. She has a political future. Born poor in Eastern Kentucky, she went to Yale, London School of Economics, and Harvard Law School. After Harvard, she chose Kentucky rather than high paying jobs in big firms. As an attorney, she has been representing low-income women suffering from domestic violence. As a member of the Metro Council, she has helped pass legislation such as parental leave and legal representation for renters facing eviction.
