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California is our largest state. With almost 40 million people, it has 2 Senators and will have 52 Members of the House of Representatives in 2022, down one from the previous decade. California has multiparty primaries with the top two vote getters, regardless of party, competing in a runoff. Right now, neither the US Senate race nor the governor’s race nor the down ballot races seem competitive. But there is a lot of competition for seats in the US House of Representatives. Take a look. Invest in California.
CA 03 Political Note #439 Democrat Physician Kermit Jones vs (probably) Sheriff Scott Jones for this Open Republican seat rated R+8
CA 09 Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder against one of two Republicans for this D+8 rated seat.
CA 13 Two Democrats, Probably Assemblyman Adam Gray vs. either of two Republicans for this D+7 rated district.
CA 22 Three Democrats and three Republicans, among them the Incumbent David Valadao competing for this D+10 District. Local Democratic leaders and the DCCC have joined together to support Assemblyman Rudy Salas, minimizing the likelihood of two Republicans in the run off.
CA 27 Political Note #422 Christy Smith and four other Democrats plus Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia are competing for this D+8 rated district.
CA 40 Political Note #456 Democratic physician Asif Mahmood is the only Democrat running, while the Republican incumbent Young Kim is one of three Republicans competing for this toss-up R+4 rated district.
CA 41 Five Democrats are competing for this R+7 leaning district to unseat the incumbent Republican Ken Calvert. As with CA 22, the DCCC could endorse one Democrat and minimize the likelihood of two Republicans in the run off.
CA 45 Political Note #405 Community College Trustee and Lt. Commander in the Naval Reserves Jay Chen is running against incumbent Republican Michelle Park Steel in what is now a D+5 leaning district.
CA 47 Democratic incumbent Katie Porter will face one of seven Republicans competing to get enough votes to be in the run off in this district with a modest D+6 lean.
CA 49 Democratic incumbent Mike Levin will face one of three Republicans competing to get enough votes to be in the run off in this district which hovers between a toss-up and a Democratic lean at D+5.
032422 Political Note #456 Asif Mahmood CA 40
2022 General Election
Eighteen Members of Congress belong to the Pakistani-American Caucus in the House of Representatives. The Caucus’s co-chairs are Trumpist Republican Jim Banks of Indiana and Democrat Tom Suozzi of New York who is running for Governor of that state. Four of the eighteen are African-Americans. One is Mexican-American. One is Greek-American. One is a Hindu whose parents immigrated to the United States from Punjab, India. None are Pakistani-Americans.
If Asif Mahmood https://www.drasifmahmood.com were to be elected, he would be the only Pakistani-American in Congress. Asif Mahmood would also be a member of a larger bloc in Congress. A pulmonary and internal medicine specialist, he would join what are currently twelve medical doctors in the House of Representatives.
Getting elected will be a challenge for Asif Mahmood. It is certainly not impossible. California 40 has a slight R+4 lean. That modest lean would make the district a toss-up, all things being equal. The incumbent Republican, Young Kim, is running for her second term. One of four Korean-Americans in Congress, she has some challenges and some advantages.
After redistricting, Young Kim announced she would move from CA 39 to CA 40. Young Kim had won her election in CA 39 which had a D+6 Lean. Had she stayed in CA 39, in its new configuration she would be facing another incumbent and a D+23 lean. The new CA 40, to which she is escaping, has an R+4 lean – making it 10 points easier for her to win. The new district includes Yorba Linda and Chino Hills, which Kim previously represented, and other parts of Orange County that Katie Porter represented. A constituent going from Katie Porter to Young Kim is going from left to right.
CNN described how Kim would sell her candidacy to her new, more Republican district. ” I’ll continue to fight to combat inflation, lower taxes on Californians, and bolster our national security,” Kim will also continue her fight to limit student loan forgiveness to those on the verge of bankruptcy. She will continue to oppose the Affordable Care Act. She will continue her opposition to abortion. With a new district that is more inland, she will continue to oppose bans on offshore oil. And she will oppose immigrants coming to the United States to join members of their family. She will probably continue her support of an important exception to uniting families. She is concerned about Korean Americans with family in North Korea. She and New York Democrat Grace Meng proposed a law to require the Secretary of State to prioritize reuniting divided Korean-American families.
Asif Mahmood has some experience in electoral politics. In 2018, he ran for California Insurance Commission. He finished third and failed to reach the top two run off. He raised over $2 million dollars for this state-wide race and got 13.5% of the vote. Endorsed by local and state-wide political leaders, Asif Mahmood has cleared the field of other Democrats and will earn a run off spot. Young Kim has not have cleared the field of other Republicans. Two Republicans are running to her right, though neither has raised any money to speak of. City Councilman Greg Raths and extremist Nick Taurus may drive her to the right. If that happens, come the run off, being too far right won’t help her.
Asif Mahmood describes himself as a problem solver. He points to his medical work and his roles in the medical community and the community at large. He volunteers at a free clinic and serves on the California Medical Board. He is an active supporter of UNICEF, is on the board of Southern California’s largest homeless shelter, the Valley Rescue Mission, and chairs the Organization for Social Media Safety which opposes cyberbullying.
He addresses the problem of facing an incumbent Republican by attacking her political positions – her opposition to abortion, her openness to drilling for oil in the Pacific, her opposition to the infrastructure bill passed into law by the current Congress. Young Kim is not among the worst of the Republicans in Congress. She voted, for instance, to strip Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s committee assignments. Nor the worst is pretty faint praise. Asif Mahmood argues that politicians like her don’t help California families. He describes her opposition to bans on oil drilling and to the infrastructure law already passed by Congress are examples of her being against “common sense solutions that have broad bipartisan support.”
Asif Mahmoon https://www.drasifmahmood.com has a case to make. If he can raise enough money, he can make that case successfully. He will have to raise a lot. Kim started 2022 with $2.6 million to spend on her campaign. He began the year still not a candidate, carrying over just a teeny bit of money from his Insurance Commissioner race. Asif Mahmood raised $1 million after announcing. Help him keep building a war chest.
Consider Democrats running in Republican leaning districts and EVEN districts*
PA 01. Retired Army Pilot Ashley Ehasz vs Incumbent Republican Member of Congress in the EVEN Congressional district.
MI 08. Incumbent Democrat Dan Kildee has been redistricted into an R+1 leaning district. His opponent is former Trump Official Paul Junge
CO 08. Democratic State Rep Yadera Cardero is running in the newly created and, therefore, Open district against one of five Republicans in this districted rated R+3
NE 02. State Senator Tony Vargas is opposing Incumbent Republican Don Bacon in this district which has been shifted from an EVEN district to R+3
CA 40 Democratic Physician Asif Mahmood is running against incumbent Republican Young Kim in this district reconfigured to be an R+4 lean Republican district.
MI 07. Incumbent Democrat Elissa Slotkin has been shifted into an R+4 district and is running against Republican State Senator Tom Barrett.
PA 07. Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild has been shifted into an R+4 district and is running against 2020 Republican nominee Lisa Scheller who Susan Wild defeated in a close race.
*Ratings are drawn from the 538 Website.
