Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #389 Tom O’Halleran AZ 01, Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #423 Gabe Vasquez NM 02, Political Note #417 Abby Broyles OK 05, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15 (now TX 34), Political Note #424 John Lira TX 23, Political Note #399 Colin Allred TX 32
WEST: Political Note #422 Christy Smith CA 25, Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04. MIDWEST: Political Note # 398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02, Political Note #418 Brad Pfaff WI 03SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02NORTHEAST: Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07, Political Note #394 Susan Wild PA 07, Political Note #397 Eugene DePasquale PA 10
November 5th , 2021 Political Note #424 John Lira TX 23
2022 General Election
The 2022 election in TX 23 will not be a fair fight. It is the closest chance the Democrats have, however, to flip a Republican seat in Texas. Prior to redistricting, Republicans have won this seat consistently. But those wins were close. 2014 by 2 points, 2016 by 1.3 points, 2018 by 1.5 points, 2020 by 4 points. With redistricting, Republican are not taking chances. They have added 7 points to the existing lean of the district.
That does not mean the seat is unwinnable. It means a win is tough.
Can John Lira https://liraforcongress.com make a successful run? His Mexican American parents came to San Antonio and lived in the southeast side. He describes his family members as assembly line workers, office assistants, beauticians, musicians, and oilfield workers. Both parents worked, sometimes two jobs. Despite the hard work, John Lira was poor enough to be eligible for free lunch at school. He didn’t leave school, but he did go to work at age 16 – bussing tables at a Riverwalk restaurant. His incentive to service came, in part, from the death of an uncle who was killed in the Oklahoma City bombing. Four years after the bombing, he joined the Marines. He was a Marine for 11 years on active duty and in the Reserves. He had two combat tours in Iraq — the first in 2003, the second in 2005. He served as an intelligence analyst and retired as a Sargent E-5. It may not be a particular help to him politically, but he’s been to school. After leaving the service, he earned a BA from the University of Texas at San Antonio and a Master’s Degree from Carnegie Mellon – both with the help of the GI Bill. He is the father of one daughter. His wife is a tenured professor of higher education studies. Her work includes the study of pathways to success and the obstacles for minority students
Here is what the John Lira and the Democrats are up against. The Republican incumbent is a first termer. He grew up in the Five Points neighborhood of San Antonio – a neighborhood described as walkable and historic. He does not say, in his website, or even in interviews that I’ve found, where his family immigrated from. His grandfather, the rock of his family, was a staunch Democrat with a solid job at the Kelly Air Force base. His family life was more complicated. His father left. His mother married an “angry man.” He quit school at 15 and went on his own. When he was old enough, he joined the navy. In the military, he became a Republican. He got his degrees online — a BA from the State of New York’s university without walls, a Master’s Degree from a national online institution. He’s hoping to get a doctorate from the University of Southern Mississippi. He stayed in the Navy for 20 years, served as a Master Petty Officer and as a cryptologist. Out of the service, among other things, he worked in Marco Rubio’s office. In Congress, the closest he has come from moving away from the party line was to vote in favor of establishing a bipartisan commission to examine the January 6 insurrection. He is the father six children. His wife is at home.
John Lira took his skills to civilian life. He worked for the Small Business Administration and on small business issues in other agencies. VoteVets, in their endorsement of him describes his work: “in six years served in three federal agencies, including AmeriCorps, where he managed the agency’s veterans and military families portfolio, the U.S. Small Business Administration where he helped manage the Boots to Business veterans transition program, and on the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service … he helped write national policy recommendations to expand pathways to service opportunities for America’s youth.” He worked in Congressman Jimmy Panetta’s office as a legislative fellow.
What is there that distinguishes John Lira from the Republican incumbent? The head of the Latino Victory Funds says that electing John Lira “will mean that the district will have a relentless advocate for small business support, voter protection rights, long-term immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship, and access to quality, affordable health care….”
The Fund prefers John Lira for who he is and also for who he is not. The incumbent, they say, supports Republican extreme positions. He opposes mask mandates, Covid-19 vaccination mandates while support the Texas law that, in effect, bans abortions.
TX 23 and the country needs John Lira https://liraforcongress.com . With redistricting, TX 23 becomes more of a long shot. It, nevertheless, remains the Democrats best chance of flipping a red Congressional seat in Texas. Give money now. Money now will generate more money for John Lira. Make him a phenomenon. Let’s see what we can do.
Democrats to flip Republican seats (I will keep adding to this list)
California 25 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org Help her make the third time a charm.
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com Help him get his seat back from a far rightist supporter of Trump and Elder
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com Help this financial planner and former basketball player and defeat a perpetually vulnerable Republican
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com Help this popular U of Iowa law school professor and state rep
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/ Help this formerly incarcerated guy who created a non-profit to help others like him
New Mexico 03 Gabe Vazquez https://gabeforcongress.com Help this outdoorsman who knows how to make government work
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com Help this health care researcher win an open Republican seat.
Oklahoma 05 Abby Broyles https://www.abbybroyles.com Help this young, former television celebrity and investigative reporter defeat a vulnerable Republican
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com Help the former State Auditor defeat Incumbent Scott Perry — the most active Congressional conspirator to overturn the 2020 election
Texas 23 John Lira https://liraforcongress.com Help this military guy with roots in San Antonio defeat a conventional Republican (Redistricting makes winning this seat tougher.)
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com Help this former Marine Colonel and medical exec defeat an extreme Republican in a district hinting at purple
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats and Dems defending Open Democratic Seats.
West
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for her)
Texas 15 (now TX 34) Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020 (He is now running in the safe Democratic TX 34)
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020 (Redistricting makes this seat safer for him)
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Elsewhere in the US
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020=
New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
New Mexico 01 Tom O’Halloran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Wisconsin 03 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com Candidate to replace retiring Ron Kind
REDISTRICTING AND ITS IMPLICATION – in order of map adoption
Oregon Adds a competitive sixth seat. Probable gain of one Democratic seat.
Maine Slight changes in its two seats. Probable no change.
Nebraska Changes in its one competitive seat. Probable no change
Indiana Makes a competitive seat less competitive. Probable no change.
West Virginia Loses one seat. Probable loss of one Republican seat.
Texas Gains two seats from 23 R 13 D. Adds an R seat and a competitive seat. Probable gain of two Republican seats
So far: Probable net gain of one Democratic seat and one Republican seat.
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
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Support Democrats. Sadly, Republicans have become enemies of democracy.
