Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02
NORTHEAST: Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07, Political Note #394 Susan Wild PA 07, Political Note #397 Eugene DePasquale PA 10
MIDWEST: Political Note # 398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #389 Tom O’Halleran AZ 01, Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15, Political Note #399 Colin Allred TX 32
WEST: Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS: Political Note #393 Allison Russo OH 15 (Election is in November, 2021), Political Note #364 Jana Lynne Sanchez TX 06 (lost), Political Note #382 Melanie Stansbury NM 01 (won)
October 4th, 2021 Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01
2022 General Election
Virginia has changed. Democrats have been winning in a state that, not long ago, was controlled by Republicans. We’ll see, of course, on November 2, 2021, how true that statement is. Will Terry McAuliffe get himself elected back into the Governor’s office. He’s been leading in most polls, but not all. After the November election, will Virginia still have a Democratic governor, a Democratic Lt. Governor, a Democratic Attorney General, and a Democratic House of Delegates?
Virginia has eleven Members of congress. Seven are Democrats. When November 8, 2022 is over, will Democrats still have seven Members of Congress? Five Members of Congress? Nine Members of Congress?
Virginia may have changed, but has VA 01 changed?
|2012||President||Republican 53||Democrat 45||Republican +8|
|2016||President||Republican 53||Democrat 40||Republican +13|
|2020||President||Republican 51||Democrat 47||Republican +4|
|2012||Senator||Republican 53||Democrat 47||Republican +6|
|2016||Senator||Republican 56||Democrat 42||Republican +14|
|2018||Senator||Republican 49||Democrat 48||Republican +1|
|2013||Governor||Republican 52||Democrat 41||Republican +11|
|2017||Governor||Republican 54||Democrat 44||Republican +10|
|2012||Congress||Republican 56||Democrat 42||Republican +14|
|2014||Congress||Republican 63||Democrat 34||Republican +39|
|2016||Congress||Republican 60||Democrat 37||Republican +23|
|2018||Congress||Republican 55||Democrat 45||Republican +10|
|2020||Congress||Republican 58||Democrat 42||Republican +16|
If we look selectively, we can be hopeful about VA 01. In 2018, Republican Corey Stewart carried this Republican district by only a point. In 2020, Trump carried the district by 4. Other races, particularly the Congressional races, have been Republican blowouts. November 8, 2022 is 14 months away.
If Terry McAuliffe can get himself elected again as Governor, defeating a very high spending Republican challenger who has tried to hide his extreme right-wing views, Democratic chances in VA 01 will be better. For the first time, Virginia’s Congressional and state legislative districts will be drawn by a commission. If the 16-member commission’s plan is rejected by the legislature and its second plan is rejected by the legislature, then redistricting would be created by the seven-member state Supreme Court, which has four members with Republican backgrounds and three with Democratic backgrounds. The second most populated district in Virginia, VA 01 will lose some of its population. Will it lose Democratic suburbs or Republican rural areas? Will its Republican lean decline from the currently calculated +6 Republican?
Could VA 01 conceivably elect a Democrat? Could VA 01 elect Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.comas their representative? Could VA 01 elect the son of Ohio farmers Dorothy Stewart and Roderick Navarre? Stewart Navarre’s father was so devoted to his own and his children’s military service that his obituary lists his children’s and grandchildren’s military affiliation. Virginia likes its politicians to have had military service, particular service in the Navy or the Marines.
We are talking about retired Marine Colonel Stewart Navarre, a graduate of the US Naval Academy in the 1970s. By the mid-1990s, he was an operations officer for Special Operations. He spent two years in the Pentagon coordinating and deploying Special Operations force around the world with a particular focus on the security arrangements at US embassies. After that, he commanded the 2nd Battalion of the 7th Marine Regiment, became Branch Head at Marine Headquarters, and then was Regimental Commander of the 5thMarines, 1st Marine Division – in charge of training Marines for deployment to Iraq. He completed his military service as Chief of Staff for Marine Corps Installations West overseeing seven defense installations west of the Mississippi. While Chief of Staff, he announced charges against seven Marines who appeared to have shot an Iraqi man for no reason after removing him from his house. Col. Stewart Navarre said that the Marine Corps is proud of holding its members accountable for what they do, that the Corps “takes allegations of wrongdoing very seriously and is committed to investigating such allegations.”
In 2018, he retired a second time – from the private sector. Living in Virginia, he had been CEO of Galinios Pharmaceuticals, a medical instruments manufacturer. Before that, his civilian life was on the West Coast. His first civilian job was as a project manager for an enormous real estate company in southern California. His familiarity with defense contractors and the real estate they needed was important for that job as well as for a similar job with Bethel Services. Then, for fifteen years, he served as Vice President of MYnd Analytics. He engaged with government entities toward gaining FDA support for medical technologies. Then he came east to Galinios.
Stewart Navarre saw himself as a man of integrity. Others saw that as well – in the military and out of it. No one saw him as a political progressive. No one would mistake Stewart Navarre for Bernie Sanders or Alexander Ocasio-Cortez. In Congress, he would be a former corporate executive and a former career military officer. He is campaigning to be the alternative to the Republican incumbent, Robert Wittman.
Robert Wittman is an extremely conservative Republican in a conservative Republican district. When Democrats have an opportunity to oust someone like Wittman, we should take advantage of that opportunity. Wittman has been in Congress since 2007. He has a record a conservative Democrat can criticize. His idea of dealing with the financial crisis the country faced shortly after his election was to suspend taxes. Granted, he would not suspend all taxes. He proposed a two year moratorium on taxes on capital gains and dividends. He would have cut some other taxes in half. When the possibility of closing some military bases arose, he had what he thought was a better idea. Save the bases by cutting the pay and benefits of the military. Not all the military. Only the ones who join the service in the future.
Wittman does have good thoughts for the environment. He has a doctorate in public health and focused on shellfish sanitation. He is an advocate for offshore wind power and, before he was elected to Congress, advocated for public libraries and teacher salaries. In Congress, though, he has voted to declare that personhood begins at conception. Regarding immigration, he has propagated the falsehood that 85% of immigrants don’t show up for court hearings. While advocating for construction of a wall at the southern border, he advocated for eliminating the visa lottery and family unification as a basis for an immigration visa. He supported abolishing the Affordable Care Act and replacing it with the Republican health proposal. He was one of 126 Republican Members of Congress to support the amicus brief contesting the results of the 2020 election and was one of 147 Republican Members of Congress who objected to certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election. He voted against creating a non-partisan commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection. He insisted that he really did want to know the truth of what happened, but he feared that the non-partisan commission would become politicized.
When Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com announced his candidacy, he said he would focus his campaign on Wittman’s opposition to the Covid-19 relief bill, Wittman’s opposition to the Affordable Care Act, and his acquiescence to the lies about the 2020 election results and the violence that was a product of those lies. Help Stewart Navarre make his case. Discomfort the Republicans. Maybe win a seat. Maybe win a seat that, in previous years, didn’t seem like it could be won.
Democrats to flip Republican seats (I will keep adding to this list)
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com (Special election November, 2021.)
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats to support. Democratic Members of Congress who won with less than 52% of the vote or are otherwise vulnerable
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
New Mexico 01 Tom O’Halloran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020
Texas 15 Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Organizations to support
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org The official organization of the Democratic Party.
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Promotes fair elections around the country
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Support Democrats. Sadly, Republicans have become enemies of democracy.