Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com  Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.  Political Note #359 Maggie Hassan US Senate New Hampshire, Political Note #365 Catherine Cortez Masto US Senate Nevada, Political Note #379 Raphael Warnock US Senate Georgia, Political Note #387 Mark Kelly US Senate Arizona, Political Note #400 Val Demings US Senate Florida

June 24, 2021           Val Demings Florida US Senate

2021                         General Election

Democrats have had a revelation.  Moderate Joe Biden could win the presidency.  Having won the presidency, moderate Joe Biden could be bold.

The Federal Register lists 52 Executive orders between November 2, 2021 and July 7, 2021.  These Executive Orders focus on making the United States a more equitable, more ethical, more prosperous country; on making the country safer and healthier; on defeating Covid and fixing the economy damaged by Covid; on addressing the Climate Crisis, and on reducing privatization of institutions intended for the public good.

Joe Biden has had legislative successes.  The biggest was the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. That will be followed, I’m sure, by an infrastructure plan, and, I hope, by legislation protecting the right to vote.

In doing more than was expected of him, Joe Biden has restored confidence that a progressive vision shared by all Democrats is possible.  That vision is not only shared among Democrats, but is popular in the country.  The vision is popular even where Democrats have had differences.  On the whole, Democrats have stopped accusing each other of any purpose other than finding the best way to help Americans.

Joe Biden could use more Democrats in Congress – both in the House of Representatives and the US Senate.  With 50 Democratic Senators whose politics range from that of Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) to Bernie Sanders (VT) and Elizabeth Warren (MA), notwithstanding the vision that these Democrats do share, it is a challenge to get to 50 so the Vice President can break a tie.  Since Republicans have committed themselves to unanimously opposing the Democrats on anything the least bit controversial, Democrats cannot get to 60 to break a filibuster.

Elect Val Demings https://valdemings.com in Florida. If nothing else changed, her election would get us to 51.  Elect Val Demings in Florida. Her election could help us get well above 50.  We could get well above 50 because the American people are beginning to recognize that Republicans are the enemy of democracy.

Val Demings is the perfect Florida Senate candidate to represent the constituency that made Joe Biden President of the United States.  Led by Jim Clyburn, the powerful African-American Congressman from South Carolina, he and his state created Joe Biden’s success in the presidential primaries.  Some  argue that Joe Biden was a favorite of Black Americans because of his electability.

Consider this possibility.  Joe Biden was a favorite of Black Americans because he could connect with White working-class voters and Black working-class voters. He was not only electable; he could promise policies that would work for workers.

Val Demings is an ex-cop.  Not only a cop, but a police chief.  Here’s how she got there.   She was the youngest of seven children.  Her father was a janitor, a gardener, an orange picker. Her mother was a maid. She cleaned houses.  They lived in a section of Jacksonville, Florida called Mandarin.  After the Civil War, Harriet Beecher Stowe, author of the abolitionist novel “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” spent her winters in the neighborhood. She described it as a tropical paradise.

Mandarin and Jacksonville was not a tropical paradise for Val Demings and her family.  This was a segregated southern community.  Val Demings started out in segregated schools.

Val Demings would not want Mandarin or Jacksonville or Florida or the South to return to what it was in the 1960s when she was growing up.  Nevertheless, she has good memories of her life. Her first consciousness of the possibility of doing police work was her stint in the “school patrol” in junior high school.

Her first experience of a desegrated school was in sixth grade and that was a challenge.  She thought that she might sleep over at a White girl’s house until the girl’s mother said she didn’t want that n………. in her house.  Junior high school was better.  There was the “school patrol.  She and Vera Hartley, a White friend with whom she created what they called “the Charisma Club,” won first place in a talent show singing and dancing to Aretha Franklin’s “Respect.”  Val Demings was on the Junior High School’s student council, captained the band’s flag corps, played softball, and was elected Miss Congeniality.

Val Demings is conscious of her parents’ values and the aphorisms that reflected those values.  She puts that she puts those aphorisms in her campaign website.  “Work hard and play be the rules.”  “Have faith.” “Treat others as you want to be treated.” “Never tire of doing good.”  Consider these statements as life-long guidance for a politician or for a police who was elected to Congress.  Consider another aphorism of her parents that she did not put in her website, but the Tampa Bay newspaper has cited: “There will always be people who try to put obstacles in your way and remind you that you’re different.  And you’ve got to push back.”

Val Butler Demings was a worker and a charmer who pushed back.  At 14, she took her first paying job as a dishwasher.  Some of the money she earned was helpful in going to college – the first person in her family to go to college.  She almost didn’t go to college – at least right away.  She told her parents she would continue working at McDonald’s to earn a little money and apply the following year.  Her mother warned that if she waited, she might never leave home.

Val Demings left home for college.  She went 165 miles away, a 2 ½ hour drive west from Jacksonville, Florida’s northernmost big city (with a population of nearly a million people close to the Atlantic), to the state capital and a state university.  Tallahassee, with a population of less than 200,000 people was different from Jacksonville.  Situated at the elbow between the huge Florida peninsula and the beginning of Florida’s panhandle, it was dominated by the university and state government. Val Demings graduated from Florida State University in Tallahassee in 1979 with a degree in criminology.

Moving on to a career in criminology was not automatic.  Val Demings had wanted to go to law school, but didn’t have the money.  She worked as a kind of social worker for 18 months and still didn’t have the money.  She applied to the Orlando Police Department.  Orlando is 140 miles south of Jacksonville, but in central Florida rather than on the coast.  Orlando’s population is now approaching 300,000. In 1980, just before Val Demings moved there, it had exceeded 100,000 people.  Disney World, the economic engine for Orlando’s growth, opened in 1971.  Orange County, of which Orlando is a part, has also grown enormously.  Its population is now more than one million people.

The story about her application to the Orlando Police Department involves her future husband, Jerry Demings.  You can’t consider Val Butler Deming’s experience in Orlando without considering Jerry Demings.  In 1983, ready to move on from her social work job, she heard on the radio that the Orlando Police was in Tallahassee recruiting. She went to pick up information and wound up completing all of the application process except a mandatory mile and a half run.

She decided not to go back in the afternoon for the run, moving to Orlando was not for her.  The recruiter told a friend that a good-looking candidate named Valdez Butler hadn’t shown up for the run.  Jerry Demings, the friend, remembered her from Florida State and insisted she was terrific.  In a 2016 joint interview in the local press with the two of them while Val Demings was being considered as a Vice Presidential possibility, it wasn’t clear who made the phone call to her – Jerry or the recruiter.  In either case, notwithstanding that Val Demings insists that she has no memory whatsoever of Jerry Demings at Florida State, she was persuaded by the phone call.

Val Demings did the run the following morning and not long afterwards was accepted into Orlando’s police academy.  The conversation with her parents, especially with her father who wanted her to go to law school, was not easy.  The training and, eventually the actual work, was not easy, either. But she was a worker and a charmer and a pusher-back. At the police academy, she was elected president of her class. As a member of the police force, she moved up in the ranks. So did Jerry Demings.

Jerry Demings was an Orlando local, though his parents had moved there from Alabama. His father drove a taxi.  His mother was at home.  He had joined the Orlando police in 1981, became a detective and, in 1998, became Orlando’s first African-American Chief of Police.  In 2002, he retired to become the Director of Public Safety for Orange County, of which Orlando is a part.  And then he ran for office.  In 2008, he was elected Sheriff of Orange County – putting him in charge.  He was reelected in 2012 and 2016.  In 2016, he was elected by his peers as president of the Florida Sheriff’s Association.

Meanwhile, Val Demings moved up in the ranks in the Orlando Police Department.  Jerry had become a detective during her first year as an officer.  In 1984, they dealt with a case together, Val Butler surprised Jerry and others with tough questions coming from a rookie.  They met socially, mostly in groups, and eventually dated – the only police officer she ever dated, Val Demings says.  They married in 1988.  Working in the Orlando Police Department, she trained for using and then grew to love riding a motorcycle.  She was promoted to captain and, in 2007, five years after her husband had left for the County job, was chosen as Orlando’s police chief – its first female police chief.  She remained in that role until 2011.

What kind of police chief was she?  An AP story published as Joe Biden was considering her as a Vice Presidential possibility said:  “[Val] Demings has honed the charisma she learned in high school to build a rapid national profile. …. But she’s also facing scrutiny, particularly over her four years as Orlando’s police chief.  ‘She’s out here touting a national plan for criminal justice reform, said Mike Cantone, an Orlando liberal activist who previously supported Demings’ bid for Congress. “But she’s never once called for that kind of reform right here in her backyard.”

People agree that during her tenure as police chief, violent crime in Orlando declined by 40%.  A study of police violence by the Orlando Sentinel for the five-year period beginning with Val Demings’ last year as police chief suggests an increase in police violence.  The story notes the several police on trial for criminal acts of violence, but does not make those trials part of the narrative except as proof of violence.  You might take a different view – that those trials were a part of Val Demings and the Orlando Police leadership using what she described as the “tools available to them to address excessive force…”.

Val Demings’ retirement from the Orlando Police Force coincided with her decision to run for Congress in 2012.  She ran and lost against Republican Daniel Webster 51-48.  After a court-ordered redistricting and after she rejected other political possibilities in 2014, she ran again to represent Florida’s 10th Congressional District in 2016.  Webster had fled for Florida’s 11thVal Demings got 65% of the vote.  She ran without opposition in 2018 and won with 64% of the vote in 2020.

In the House of Representatives, Val Demings has served on the Homeland Security Committee, the Judiciary Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  She has been a member of the mainstream New Democratic Coalition and the Congressional Black Caucus.  In 2019, she served as one of the seven impeachment managers in the trial of Donald Trump.

Organizations assess the votes of politicians.  Val Demings received a 100% rating from NARAL, a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood, and an F rating from the anti-abortion Susy B Anthony List.  She also received an F rating from the NRA.  She received a 70% rating from the ACLU.  She was particularly forceful in her response to the January 6 insurrection and the Republican Members of Congress who refused to certify the electoral college vote.  She joined Representative Cori Bush in sponsoring a resolution to expel them.

Val Demings believes she can defeat Senator Marco Rubio.  So do a lot of other people.  The Cook Report consider the seat as only Leaning Republican.  Florida elections have been close, but close with Republican winners:

2020   Republican Donald Trump won 51-48

2018   Republican Ron DeSantis was elected Governor 49.6-49.2

2018   Republican Rick Scott was elected US Senator 50.1-49.9

  1. Republican Donald Trump won 49-47

2016   Republican Marco Rubio was elected US Senator 52-44

  1. Republican Rick Scott was elected Governor 48-47

Let’s move a Florida election so that it breaks for the Democrat, rather than the Republican.  Val Demings https://valdemings.com cannot win in 2022 without resources.  Make a donation now.  Make more donations later.  We all need your help to elect Val Demings.

This will be an enormously expensive election – a competitive state-wide election in the third largest state in the country.  Val Demings has been helping herself.  She announced that she was running on June 9 and raised one million dollars that day.  For the quarter ending on June 30, she has reported that she raised $4.6 Million.  That is a little more than the $4 Million that Marco Rubio reported for the quarter.  The Val Demings’ campaign reported that the average campaign donation was $26.  Join the average donors or donate more than the average donor.  But help her out.

The Cook Report projects the following incumbent Democratic Senators as Likely, or Leaning Democrat for 2022 rather than Solidly Democratic. These are seats we have to defend.  Donate to these candidates, too.

 Arizona                     Mark Kelly (Likely D) https://markkelly.com

Georgia                     Raphael Warnock (Lean D) https://warnockforgeorgia.com

Nevada                      Catherine Cortez Maestro https://catherinecortezmasto.com (Likely D)

New Hampshire      Maggie Hassan (Likely D) https://maggiehassan.com

There are no Democratic retirements.

 As we learn who the Democratic candidates are, we can focus on helping them defeat Republican Targets. Protect endangered incumbents and win some Republican seats.

 Florida                       Marco Rubio is a target (Likely R) Congresswoman Val Demings https://valdemings.com will be the Democratic nominee.

Ohio                           Rob Portman is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Lean R) Tim Ryan https://timforoh.com will be the Democratic nominee. 

 

Knowing who the Democratic candidate will be is more difficult in some of these states.  Wait until the primary? Wait until who the primary winner is likely to be?  Support someone in the primary?  Do what makes sense to you.

 Missouri                    Roy Blunt is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Solid R) So far there are two Democratic candidates in the race and there may be more. And Missouri make select a vulnerable candidate.

Alabama                   Richard Shelby is retiring.  The seat is Open (Solid R) Is there a Democrat in Alabama who can create a Doug Jones-like surprise?

North Carolina        Richard Burr is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is the likely Democratic nominee

Pennsylvania          Pat Toomey is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Four Democrats are currently in the race; double that number are still thinking about it.

Wisconsin                Ron Johnson is a target (Lean R) Five Democrats are currently in the race; about the same number are still thinking about it.

Kentucky                  Is not on the list of seats Republicans are vacating.  Rand Paul is up for election and he is vulnerable.  (Kentucky may be Mitch McConnell’s home, but it also has a Democratic governor.). Charles Booker, a young former state rep who narrowly lost the primary to Amy McGrath in 2020 to run against Mitch McConnell is, so far, running a strong campaign.  

Organizations to support as well

 The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org  The campaign arm of the Democratic US Senators.

 The Democratic National Committee (DNC).   https://democrats.org  The official organization of the Democratic Party.

 Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Promotes fair elections around the country

Three Cautions while donating through Act Blue (most Democratic candidates use Act Blue for online donations)

  1. Take care to hit the donate button only once. If you hit it a second time, you could be charged for two donations instead of one.
  2. Take care to watch for an already clicked recurring donation. You can unclick it and donate only once if that is your intent.

Watch for your receipt.  If the receipt indicates a donation different from your intention, reply to Act Blue via the receipt right away.  They will fix your donation.  They want you to donate only what you intend to donate

While those credentials could blunt [an] argument that a Biden administration would lead to lawlessness, they could also spur unease among progressives who are leery of law enforcement….. In a recent interview, Demings argued she used the tools available to her to address excessive force and bad actors on the police force.

“I think people don’t really fully understand sometimes the restraints that law enforcement executives have as it pertains to discipline,” she said.

She insisted she “found some creative ways to get around” those rules and developed her own way “to force officers who I believed should not have been law enforcement officers to resign, pending termination.”

In retrospect, Demings says, one of her biggest problems is that throughout her career, she’s not been the flashy or outspoken type, and didn’t speak up publicly about those efforts. Her parents, she said, “taught me to be pretty humble.”

 

 

The Cook Report projects the following incumbent Democratic Senators as Likely, or Leaning Democrat for 2022 rather than Solidly Democratic. These are seats we have to defend.

 

Arizona                     Mark Kelly (Likely D) https://markkelly.com

Georgia                     Raphael Warnock (Lean D)  https://warnockforgeorgia.com

Nevada                      Catherine Cortez Maestro https://catherinecortezmasto.com (Likely D)

New Hampshire      Maggie Hassan (Likely D) https://maggiehassan.com

There are no Democratic retirements.

As we learn who the Democratic candidates are, we can focus on helping them defeat Republican Targets. Protect endangered incumbents, then win some Republican seats.

 Alabama                   Richard Shelby is retiring.  The seat is Open (Solid R) Is there a Democrat in Alabama who can create a Doug Jones-like surprise?

Florida                       Marco Rubio is a target (Likely R) Congresswoman Val Demings will be the Democratic nominee.

Missouri                    Roy Blunt is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Solid R) So far there are two Democratic candidates in the race and there may be more.

North Carolina        Richard Burr is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is the likely Democratic nominee

Ohio                           Rob Portman is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Lean R) Tim Ryan, the subject of this piece, will be the Democratic nominee. 

Pennsylvania          Pat Toomey is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Four Democrats are currently in the race; double that number are still thinking about it.

Wisconsin                Ron Johnson is a target (Lean R) Five Democrats are currently in the race; about the same number are still thinking about it.

 Kentucky                  Is not on the list of seats Republicans are vacating.  Rand Paul is up for election and he is vulnerable.  (Kentucky may be Mitch McConnell’s home, but it also has a Democratic governor.). Charles Booker, a young former state rep who narrowly lost the primary to Amy McGrath in 2020 to run against Mitch McConnell is, so far, the only Democratic contender.  He is a strong one. 

Organizations to support as well

 The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org  The campaign arm of the Democratic US Senators.

 The Democratic National Committee (DNC).   https://democrats.org  The official organization of the Democratic Party.

 Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Promotes fair elections around the country

Three Cautions while donating through Act Blue (most Democratic candidates use Act Blue for online donations)

  1. Take care to hit the donate button only once. If you hit it a second time, you could be charged for two donations instead of one.
  2. Take care to watch for an already clicked recurring donation. You can unclick it and donate only once if that is your intent.
  3. Watch for your receipt. If the receipt indicates a donation different from your intention, reply to Act Blue via the receipt right away. They will fix your donation.  They want you to donate only what you intend to donate.