Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com  Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.  Political Note #359 Maggie Hassan US Senate New Hampshire, Political Note #365 Catherine Cortez Masto US Senate Nevada, Political Note #379 Raphael Warnock US Senate Georgia, Political Note #387 Mark Kelly US Senate Arizona

June 18, 2021           Political Note #392 Tim Ryan US Senate Ohio

2022                              General Election

Tim Ryan https://timforoh.com is one of several Democrats who could flip a Republican Senate seat.  Some Democrats argue that the route to making the Democrats the dominant party is to recruit candidates who will bring white blue collar voters back to the Party.  Tim Ryan fits that profile.  Ohio fits that profile.

Ohio’s other US Senator is gravelly voiced Sherrod Brown.  Brown is an advocate for labor and labor unions, a Democrat who has succeeded with white blue collar voters.  He’s also unequivocally on the side of liberal Democrats on such cultural issues as equality for members of the LGBQT community.

Tim Ryan was elected to represent Ohio’s 17th district from 2002 through 2010 and then to represent what became Ohio’s 13th district from 2012 to 2020.  The notorious Jim Traficant represented the 17th until he was convicted of taking bribes, filing false tax returns, racketeering, and forcing his staff to work on his farm and do personal chores.  Tim Ryan, who had been an aide to Traficant, was elected to replace him.  In 2002, Tim Ryan defeated a Republican and Traficant who ran for office from his prison cell.

Ohio’s 17th district abutted Pennsylvania. It included Youngstown in the southeast of the district, Kent in the more rural southwestern part of the district, and two towns north of Youngstown famous in Ohio for their high school football teams – Warren and Niles.   Tim Ryan’s new district in 2012, the 13th, resembled his old district except that it stretched farther west to Akron.

Tim Ryan won every election in the 13th convincingly – though his margins dropped from 100,000 in 2016 to 50,000 in 2018, to 25,000 in 2020 (a 53- 45 win).  OH 13 has a median household income of $46,600 — $22,000 below the national average.  The district is 83% white, 12% Black and overwhelmingly blue collar.  The district leans Democratic.  Since 2012, the district voted Republican once for governor — for John Kasich in 2014, It voted Republican once for Senator – for Rob Portman in 2016.  Donald Trump did not carry the district in his two runs for President.  You might say that OH 13 is blue collar enough and poor enough that it never really left the Democrats.  It may be that many of the people who left the Democrats think of themselves as blue collar, but are prosperous enough to be Republicans.

Ohio as a whole is more prosperous than Tim Ryan’s Congressional District.  The state’s median household income is $54,000 — $14,000 below the national average. Ohio’s other demographics are similar to OH 13.  In 2010, Ohio was 83% white and 12% Black.  Ohio as a whole is more Republican than OH 13.  The Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer are all elected and all are Republicans.  The only Democrat currently in state-wide office is Sherrod Brown.

You’d think that Tim Ryan would do just fine representing white blue collar voters.  He was a high school quarterback in Warren, Ohio.  His BA is local — from Bowling Green State University in Ohio.   His JD is from away, but far from elite.  He earned his degree at the Franklin Pierce Law Center in New Hampshire.  Can Tim Ryan win enough Republican voters?  Can he turn out minority voters?  Can he excite Democratic liberals?

When Tim Ryan was first elected to Congress, he was 29, the youngest member of Congress.  He was early to an anti-China position. In 2010, he proposed punitive tariffs on China for their currency manipulation.  He supported tax increases to deal with the deficit and to protect social security.  In 2016, he ran against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House – gaining 63 votes in the Democratic Caucus.

Tim Ryan’s political positions are often told as stories.  He supported the agreement to limit Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, putting that in the context of support for Israel.  He recalls a visit to Israel during which he observed a constant consciousness of the possibility of terrorist attacks.  He expressed his openness to immigration through his unsuccessful struggle with the Trump administration.   Tim Ryan attempted to prevent the deportation of an undocumented immigrant who had lived and prospered in Youngstown for nearly 40 years. Tim Ryan’s movement to being pro-choice on abortion was a product of a decade of reflection on the issue.  Caucus membership can be a clue to wear a Member of Congress stands. Tim Ryan is a member of the Blue-Collar Caucus and the Medicare for All Caucus.

Like Sherrod Brown, Tim Ryan integrates a blue-collar sensibility with progressive views.  His campaign against Nancy Pelosi was generational and cultural, not ideological.  He’s written a book called “A Mindful Nation,” and argues that stress reduction increases health, work performance and makes people more resilient.

Tim Ryan’s campaign is more about anger than mindfulness.  His condemnation of Republican support for the January 6 insurrection is a paean to the cops who were attacked.  A video of Tim Ryan’s brief speech on the topic has been viewed millions of times.  His initial travel around the state is billed as a “Workers First Tour.” Here’s what he said to a Shelby, Ohio audience alluding to a Bruce Springsteen song:  “It’s on the back of the middle class that won the wars, that built the economy, that built the big cities. And then when times changed, we forgot who everybody was… I’m running because it’s time this country remembers your hard work.”

Tim Ryan has a response to Republicans on cultural issues.  He says: “I think this campaign in Ohio is going to be ground zero … Where do workers go in Ohio when they get a choice between a Tim Ryan/Sherrod Brown, worker-based candidate, and a bunch of people who want to talk about Dr. Seuss and every other crazy issue that is irrelevant to the needs of the vast majority of the people in this state?”

If Tim Ryan is going to win this race for the US Senate, he’s going to have to energize the people in Cleveland.  He’s going to have to earn support from Ohio’s Black voters. Toward that end, he is a member of the Black Maternal Health Caucus.  In January on behalf of the Black Maternal Health Caucus, Tim Ryan, Senator Cory Booker and Congresswomen Lauren Underwood and Alma Adams announced the Black Maternal Health Momnibus Act of 2021.  The goal is to end maternal mortality and to close racial and ethnic disparities.

Visible support for the right kind of policies is a start.  Being in the picture with Cory Booker and the two African American Congresswomen is being in the right place.  If Tim Ryan can generate the enthusiasm and momentum in Ohio’s big cities that he generates when he alludes to Bruce Springsteen elsewhere in Ohio, he will be a formidable candidate against whomever the Republicans pick to run.  A half dozen Republicans are already campaigning for this seat and another dozen thinking about it.

These Republican candidates for Ohio’s Senate seat seem to think that this open seat is theirs for the picking; that it belongs to them.  Prove them wrong.  Help Tim Ryan https://timforoh.com win this election.  Help him now.  As Emily’s List says, early money is like yeast, it makes the dough rise.  Give Tim Ryan some early money

The Cook Report projects the following incumbent Democratic Senators as Likely, or Leaning Democrat for 2022 rather than Solidly Democratic. These are seats we have to defend.

 Arizona                     Mark Kelly (Likely D) https://markkelly.com

Georgia                     Raphael Warnock (Lean D)  https://warnockforgeorgia.com

Nevada                      Catherine Cortez Maestro https://catherinecortezmasto.com (Likely D)

New Hampshire      Maggie Hassan (Likely D) https://maggiehassan.com

There are no Democratic retirements.

 

As we learn who the Democratic candidates are, we can focus on helping them defeat Republican Targets. Protect endangered incumbents, then win some Republican seats.

 Alabama                   Richard Shelby is retiring.  The seat is Open (Solid R) Is there a Democrat in Alabama who can create a Doug Jones-like surprise?

Florida                       Marco Rubio is a target (Likely R) Congresswoman Val Demings is the likely Democratic nominee.

Missouri                    Roy Blunt is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Solid R) So far there are two Democratic candidates in the race and there may be more.

North Carolina        Richard Burr is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is the likely Democratic nominee

Ohio                           Rob Portman is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Lean R) Tim Ryan, the subject of this piece, will be the Democratic nominee. 

Pennsylvania          Pat Toomey is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Four Democrats are currently in the race; double that number are still thinking about it.

Wisconsin                Ron Johnson is a target (Lean R) Five Democrats are currently in the race; about the same number are still thinking about it.

 

Kentucky                  Is not on the list of seats Republicans are vacating.  Rand Paul is up for election and he is vulnerable.  (Kentucky may be Mitch McConnell’s home, but it also has a Democratic governor.). Charles Booker, a young former state rep who narrowly lost the primary to Amy McGrath in 2020 to run against Mitch McConnell is, so far, the only Democratic contender.  He is a strong one. 

Organizations to support as well

 The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org  The campaign arm of the Democratic US Senators.

 The Democratic National Committee (DNC).   https://democrats.org  The official organization of the Democratic Party.

 Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Promotes fair elections around the country

Three Cautions while donating through Act Blue (most Democratic candidates use Act Blue for online donations)

  1. Take care to hit the donate button only once. If you hit it a second time, you could be charged for two donations instead of one.
  2. Take care to watch for an already clicked recurring donation. You can unclick it and donate only once if that is your intent.
  3. Watch for your receipt. If the receipt indicates a donation different from your intention, reply to Act Blue via the receipt right away.  They will fix your donation.  They want you to donate only what you intend to donate.

 

A Special Interest of Mine

If you live in Part A of the district, please support and vote for Rebecca Weintraub in the June 22 Democratic Primary.   If you know people who live in the district, please encourage them to vote for her,  New York City has its own small town politics.  Many of the readers of Lenspoliticalnotes are New Yorkers.  Some may live in or know people in Part A of Assembly District 76 (roughly east of 3rd Avenue and south of 79th Street to and including Roosevelt Island).

We and the other Democratic Club in District 76 are supporting Rebecca Weintraub’s candidacy to be one of four leaders of the 76th Assembly District — the female leader of Part A of Assembly District 76.  District Leaders are a kind of liaison between political parties and the community.  You can learn more about her at her Website www.VoteRebecca.nyc or at Twitter @RSWinNYC or at Instagram /RSW_in_NYC or at Facebook /VoteRebeccatraub.  In her non-political life, she is Vice President of a public relations firm, mother of Benjamin, and wife of Evan.  In her political life, she has been an active member of our club, a leader in an innovative effort collecting video responses from NYC candidates for public office used to assess who to endorse and who to vote for.