|
Flipped in or flipped out
……Give President Donald J. Trump credit. He is an effective politician. He beat a field of Republicans to be the nominee. They were governors, senators, corporate leaders. He won election to the presidency –– by virtue of a gift from the undemocratic Electoral College. He has spent a lifetime honing his ability to demean those who get in his way. He frightens people so they will do what he wants. He got his base to fear sexual assault charges after the Kavanaugh hearings. He got his base to fear a 4.000 person caravan of foreigners seeking asylum. He generated a passion in his electorate that matched the Democratic passion to oppose him. He got his voters out.
……The Midterm elections were played to a draw. We saw approximately 114 million votes for U.S. House races compared to 83 million in 2014. (Democrats won the total vote by at least 6%) There were 114 million votes in 2018 compared to 126 million votes in the 2016 presidential election — a 20 year low for a presidential race. We can expect a lot of voters in 2020. A triumph for democracy. Maybe.
……Republican gains in the Senate. Democratic control of the House. Democrats flipped 7 governor races. Democrats lost a big one – Florida. They appear to be losing another big one — Georgia.
……Democrats can look forward to 2020, to a presidential election, a renewed battle for control of the Senate and a defense of the Democratic House. There will be a lot of voters in 2020. A triumph of democracy. Maybe.
……Some thoughts (Not asking you to send money anywhere. Not asking you to do anything right now. Just read what I have to say and think about it.)
……1. Claims that the Democrats had no message are wrong. Virtually every Democrat running for office described the following goal: Create a fair society, a society that taxes fairly, that provides health care to all affordably, that has a thriving economy driven by public infrastructure spending, that offers educational and business opportunities to those willing to work for them, jobs for those willing to work at them, and an equal shot at the jobs and opportunities for all. A lot of non-college educated men did not believe the Democratic message was meant for them. Will they think the same in 2020? Trump will get the votes out. Will Democrats?…2. Fears about radical or socialist Democrats were unfounded. I can count a few urban Democrats who, in replacing other Democrats, moved the party to the left. I can count a few suburban or rural Democrats who wanted to move the party to the left who lost in the general election. If those four had won (NE 02, NY 24, PA 01, PA 10) they still would not have moved the party to the left. The Democrats who flipped seats and are listed below, with the possible exception of OK 05, are political moderates.…3. Women are the base of the Democratic Party. They were responsible for flipping Republican seats and were the beneficiaries of flipping those seats. Look at the list below: 19 women, 9 men. …4. African-American Democrats found new territories to represent. Think Delgado in exurban NY 19, Underwood in suburban Chicago, Allred in a predominantly Latino district in Houston and, maybe, McBath in suburban Atlanta. The two African-American Republicans in Congress are hanging by a thread (the thread might hold them) —Hurd along the Texas-Mexico border and Love of Utah.…5. African-Americans finding places to govern was a different story. African-Americans came close, but did not win Florida and probably did not win Georgia. Big states. Big losses.…6. Women governing may be OK. Seven flips, four by women. …5. Harry Reid can pick ‘em. His protogee, Jacky Rosen, is, so far, the only Democrat to flip a Senate seat.…6. Beto O’Rourke ran a great campaign. Let’s see what he does with his moral victory.…7. We are going to have a very conservative judiciary. McConnell and Trump will complete a transformation in the next two years.…8. Nancy Pelosi is an extremely effective leader. A Democratic House will have an impact. She needs to do something to protect the new Members of the House who promised not to vote for her. Otherwise, her majority will go away in two years.
We needed to flip a net of 23 House seats to gain control of the House. We would have liked more and got a little more. So far, a net of 27, 28 if you count incumbent Conor Lamb. About 20 seats are outstanding.
- AZ 02 Former Member of Congress Ann Kirkpatrick
- CO 06 Veteran and advocate Jason Crow
- FL 26 Non-Profit Fund Raiser Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- FL 27 Former HHS Secretary and University President Donna Shalala
- IL 06 Scientist and entrepreneur Sean Casten
- IL 14 African American Nurse and former HHS official Lauren Underwood
- IA 01 Young state legislator Abby Finkenauer
- IA 03 Behind the scenes state-level administrator Cindy Axne
- KS 02 Native American attorney, MMA fighter, and advocate ShariceDavids
- MN 02 Health executive Angie Craig
- MN 03 Philanthropist Dean Phillips’
- MI 08 Former CIA official EiissaSlotkin
- MI 11 Former auto company bail out official Haley Stevens
- NJ 02 Conservative state legislative leader Jeff Van Drew
- NJ 07 Human rights leader and former State Department official Tom Malinowski
- NJ 11 Attorney and Veteran Mikie Sherrill
- NY 11 Veteran and Health executive Max Rose
- NY 19 Attorney, ex rapper, Rhodes Scholar Antonio Delgado
- NY 22 Moderate state legislator Anthony Brindisi
- OK 05 Former non-profit head and feminist activist Kendra Horn
- PA 05 Civil rights lawyer Mary Gay Scanlan
- PA 06 Entrepreneur and daughter of a holocaust survivor ChrissyHoulahan
- PA 07 Attorney Susan Wild
- TX 07 Corporate attorney Lizzie Fletcher
- TX 32 Civil Rights lawyer and former NFL football player Colin Allred
- VA 02 Veteran Elaine Luria
- VA 07 former CIA official Abigail Spanberger
- VA 10 State legislator Jennifer Wexton
Flip Out
- MN 08 County Commissioner and former NHL player Pete Stauber
We needed to flip a net of two Senate seats to gain control of the Senate. So far, we have lost a net of three. We could still lose Montana and still could flip Arizona and, implausibly, Mississippi.…
Flip…Nevada Congresswoman Jacky Rosen……
Flipped Out…Indiana Congressman Mike Braun…North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer…Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley…Florida Governor Rick Scott (Maybe not. Bill Nelson is considering asking for a recount.)……
We wanted to flip as many governor races as possible. We flipped seven without losing any. Georgia, Connecticut, and Alaska are still out. ……
Flip…Colorado Congressman Jared Polis…Illinois Venture Capitalist JB Pritzker…Kansas State Senator Laura Kelly…Maine Attorney General Janet Mills…Michigan Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer…New Mexico Congresswoman Michele Lujan Grisham…Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers
|
