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Turning the states blue
…There is still time. There is work to be done. What happens in the several states reverberates around the country. If there had been a Democratic Secretary of State in Florida in 2000, we might have had a President Gore. Different Supreme Court Judges. A different country. If we had Democratic state legislatures in 2010, we would have had a different Congress in 2012. Less gerrymandered. Different tax laws. A different country.
……Time after time, analysts say the Democrats need to win by six to eight points to win a majority in Congress in 2018, In a democracy, that should not be. The party that gets the most votes by the people should get the most votes in the national legislature.
……In gaining majorities in state legislatures, we should seek neutral processes that create fair and representative state legislative districts, fair and representative Congressional districts. Not gerrymandering in favor of Democrats. We can take a step toward strengthening democracy in the United States of American and the member states. Unlike the Republicans, we don’t need gerrymandering to win
……Politico says there that there are thirteen Republican trifectas that are vulnerable. Trifectas occur when the governor and both branches of the legislature are in the hands of one party. When a Republican trifecta is broken, it prevents Republicans from imposing their radical agenda.
……Toss Up Opportunities……Colorado Senate
- Colorado has a term limited Democratic Governor who will probably be replaced by another Democrat
- Democrats have a 36-29 majority in the State House of Representatives which they should keep
- Republicans have an 18-16-1 majority in the State Senate. A victory here along with a Democratic victory for governor would create a Democratic trifecta.
- 17 of the 35 Senate Seats are up for election. Ballotpedia considers 5 to be battleground districts. Democrats will need to hold their three (SDs 5, 11, and 11). They can win the two Republican seats (SDs 16 and 24:
- Support them viathe Colorado Democratic Party https://www.coloradodems.org
Ballotpedia reports: Democrats gained a majority in the 2018 elections for the Colorado State Senate —19 seats to Republicans’ 16.
Maine Senate
- Maine has a Trump-like Republican Governor not running for reelection. He will probably be replaced by the Maine Democratic Attorney General
- Democrats have a 77-72 majority in the State House of Representatives. They can expect to extend that majority
- Republicans have an 18-17 majority in the State Senate. A victory here along with a victory for governor would create a Democratic trifecta.
- All 35 Senate seats are up for election. Ballotpedia considers nine seats to be battlegrounds. 5 seats held by Democrats. Four by Republicans. Democrats need to hold all five seats (SDs 1,2,12,14, and 23) and flip one of the following four Republican seats (SDs 3,11,13, and 16).
- Support them via the Maine Democratic Party https://www.mainedems.org/
Ballotpedia reports Democrats won control of the Maine Senate winning 21 seats to the Republicans’ 14.
New Hampshire House and Senate
- New Hampshire has a Republican Governor. He is favored to win reelection, but is getting a strong challenge from Molly Kelly. A victory for Kelly along with doable victories in the House and Senate would move NH from a Republican trifecta to a Democratic trifecta.
- Republicans have a 212-167 majority. Of the 400 members, 2 are Libertarians and 19 seats are vacant.
- All 400 seats are up for election. 105 are single member seats. 99 are multi-member seats with between 2 and 11 members.
- Elections to the NH House are volatile. Wide swings are possible. Ballotpedia identified 103 seats as battlegrounds. 35 are single member seats with 18 held by Democrats and 17 held by Republicans. 18 of the mulit-member Battleground seats are held by Democrats, 20 are held by Republicans, and 30 are split.
- Support House candidates through the New Hampshire Democratic Party at https://www.nhdp.org/
- Republicans have a 14-10 majority in the New Hampshire Senate.
- All 24 seats are up for election. Ballotpedia identifies 8 seats as battlegrounds. Two are held by Democrats — SDs 1 and 16. Six by Republicans — SDs 2,7,8,9,12. and 24
- Support them via the New Hampshire Democratic Party at https://www.nhdp.org/
Democrats gained a majority in the New Hampshire House of Representatives — 234 seats to the Republicans’ 166
Democrats reversed the situation in the New Hampshire State Senate. Democrats now have 14 seats to the Republicans’ 10.
Democrats do not have a trifecta in New Hampshire because New Hampshire has a Republican governor
New York State Senate
- All 63 State Senate seats were up for election.
- Republicans held 32 seats (one of which was a Democrat who voted with the Republicans). Democrats 31.
- The eight members of the Independent Democratic Caucus (IDC) had agreed abandon their agreement with the Republicans to organize with them.
Democrats gained control of the New York Senate – 40 seats to 23. Six of the eight IDC members had been defeated in Democratic primaries. The one Democrat who was not a member of the IDC, but had organized with the Republicans, was reelected.
New York is now a Democratic trifecta – with a Democratic House, Senate, and Governor.
Lean Republican Opportunities……Arizona Senate
- The Governor of Arizona is a Republican. He has a contest this year, but is the favorite.
- Republicans have a 35-25 edge in the Arizona House — probably too large a gap to overcome in a single year. The goal is to end the Republican trifecta by winning the Senate.
- Republicans have a 17-13 edge in the Airizona Senate. Ballotpedia has identified five battleground districts — two held by Democrats (SDs 10 and 18), three held by Republicans (SDs 6, 8, and 28).
- Support them via the state Democratic Party https://www.azdem.org
Democrats could not gain control of the State Senate or gain seats. Republicans still have 17 seats to the Democrats’ 13.
Florida Senate
- Florida has a gubernatorial election this year. The Democrat seems to have an edge. A victory for governor and in the Senate would eliminate the Republican trifecta, but still leave the House with a Republican majority.
- Republicans have a 79-41 edge in the Florida House. If they win one additional seat, they would be able to override vetos, if the Senate were to go along.
- Republicans have a 22-16 majority in the Senate. Of the 40 seats, 22 are up for election — 14 held by Republicans, 2 vacant seats formerly held by Republicans, and six held by Democrats.
- Ballotpedia identifies seven seats up for election as battleground seats. One of the Democratic seats — SD 40. Six Republican seats — SDs 8, 16, 18, 22, 24, and 36. If three seats were flipped and a Democrat were Lt. Governor, Democrats would be in control of the Florida Senate.
- Support them via the website of the Florida Democratic Party https://www.floridadems.org/.
Democrats lost a seat in the Florida Senate, leaving them with 17 seats to the Republicans 23.
Michigan House
- The current Michigan governor is a Republican. He is not running for reelection. The Democrat is favored in this election. A victory here plus a victory in the House would leave only the Senate remaining Republican from what had been a Republican trifecta.
- The Republicans have a 27-10 majority in the State Senate.
- The Republicans have a 63-47 majority in the House. All 110 seats are up for election.
- Ballotpedia has identified 21 Battleground seats. Democrats hold seven of them. Republicans hold 14. Democrats need a net of nine seats to control the Michigan House of Represents. Summaries of the 14 vulnerable Republicans would be a lot.
- You can support the Democrats through the Michigan Democratic Party at https://michigandems.com/
Michigan Democrats gained seats in the state House of Representatives, but not enough to get a majority. Democrats have 52 seats to the Republicans 58.
Wisconsin Senate
- The governor of Wisconsin is a Republican. He is running for reelections. The Wisconsin Gubernatorial race is a toss up. A win for governor and a win in the Senate would leave only the State Assembly from what had been a Republican trifecta.
- Republicans control the State Assembly by a 64-35 margin.
- Republicans have an 18-15 margin in the state senate. Seventeen of the 33 seats are up for election.
- Ballotpedia identifies six battleground seats, 3 held by Democrats, 3 held by Republicans.
- Support these candidates viathe website of the Wisconsin Democratic Party http://www.wisdems.org/.
Democrats lost a net of one seat in the state senate. There are now 14 Democratic seats and 19 Republican seats.
Other Republican trifectas that could be ended:…Georgia
- Georgia has a very close gubernatorial race. If Minority Leader Stacy Abrams wins the election, she would be the first African American woman governor and would break the Georgia trifecta.
- After the 2016 election, Republicans held 118 seats, Democrats 62. Even though all 180 seats are up for election, there are no expectations that Democrats can gain a majority. However, this is only two votes short of a two thirds majority needed for overriding vetoes. Increasing the number of Democrats is an important goal.
- Republicans hold a 37-19 advantage in the Senate. This is one vote short of a two thirds majority for overriding vetoes. Increasing the number of Democrats is an important goal.
Democrats gained two seats in the state senate – giving them 21 of 56 seats, enough to sustain a veto had the Democrat been elected governor. Democrats gained ten seats in the state House of Representatives bringing them to 74 of 180 seats. Republicans still have a trifecta – the House, the Senate, and the governor.
Iowa
- Businessman Fred Hubble is in a very tight race against the incumbent governor who gained that position by virtue of her being the Lt. Governor. His victory alone would eliminate the Republican trifecta in Iowa.
- Republicans have a 58-41 majority in the House of Representatives with one seat vacant. All 100 seats are up for election. Democrats would need to flip nine seats to gain a majority. Ballotpedia sees nine battleground seats held by Republicans and six battleground seats held by Democrats. To gain control of the Iowa House, Democrats would have to defend successfully all six of their battleground seats and win all of the Republican held battleground seats. That would be some Blue Wave.
- Half of the 50 Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold 29 seats, Democrats 20. There is one independent. Republicans are expected to maintain control of the Senate
Democrats lost three seats in the Iowa state Senate. They now have 18 seats out of 50. Democrats gained five seats in the state House of Representatives and now have 46 of 100 seats. Having won the governor’s race, Republicans retain their trifecta in Iowa.
Nebraska
- A former Republican state legislator is running as a Democrat for governor. The incumbent governor will be very difficult to beat.
- Nebraska is the only state that has only on branch of its legislature — sometimes called the Senate. It is officially non-partisan/ Nevertheless, the political affiliation of Senators usually can be identified. The legislature came out of the 2016 election with 32 members identified as Republicans and 15 identified as Democrats in a 49 seat body.
Nebraska has a unicameral, ostensibly non-partisan legislative body they call the Senate. It appears that the Democrats gained two seats, the Republicans only lost one because they gained a seat from a Libertarian. If that appearance is correct, there will be 31 Republicans and 17 Democrats.
Ohio
- Richard Codray, the former head of the US Consumer Protection Bureau is in a tight race for governor with the Ohio Attorney General. If he were to win, that would break the Republican trifecta in Ohio.
- Republicans control 66 of the 99 seats in the House — seven more than the required 60% for a veto. Democrats would make a big difference if they could win the governor’s race and win seven additional seats.
- Republicans control 24 of the 35 senate seats — four more than the required 60% for a veto. Democrats would make a big difference if they could win five additional Senate seats.
Republicans still control 24 state Senate seats. Democrats gained 5 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them 61 seats in the 99 seat body. With a Republican elected governor, Republicans retain a trifecta and a veto proof majority in both Houses.
Tennessee
- Even though the Governor’s seat is open and former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean is a strong candidate, Democrats are not as competitive for this position as they are for the US Senate. Democrats can break the Republican trifecta only at the Governor level.
- Republicans came out of the 2016 election with a 74-25 majority. If Democrats can progress toward eliminating the Republican two-thirds majority, that would be progress.
- Republicans came out of the 2016 election with a 28-5 majority in the Senate. They need seven more seats to exceed one third of the Senate.
Democrats still have only 5 seats in the 33 seat state Senate. They lost 4 seats in the House, leaving them with 26 seats in the 99 seat body.
West Virginia
- The West Virginia governor switched parties from Democrat to Republican after the 2016 election. He is not up for election until 2020.
- The West Virginia House of Delegates has a 63-37 Republican majority. Democrats will not flip the fourteen seats needed to gain a majority.
- The West Virginia Senate has a 22-12 Republican majority. Of the 17 seats up for election, 12 are held by Republicans and seven are held by Democrats. There is a mathematical possibility that Democrats could hold all of their seats and flip the six seats needed to gain a majority in the Senate. Should that happen, it would break the Republican trifecta in West Virginia.
Democrats gained two seats in the state Senate. That gives them 14 seats in the 34 seat body. Democrats gained 6 seats in the House of Delegates bringing them to 41 seats of 100.
Please Note that this summary, still too long, has been edited so that it is briefer than the originally published Note.
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