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Getting from 51-49 to 51-49
……Pundits say it will be harder to get a Democratic majority in the US Senate than in the House of Representatives. There are a huge number of Democratic Senators up for election and the very few Republican Senators.
…Still, Democrats are tantalizingly close to winning a majority in the Senate. Coming into what may be a wave election for Democrats: Six Senate elections are toss-ups — four are held by Democrats, two by Republicans. Three more, currently held by Democrats, tilt Democratic.
……Piece of cake, right. Win the tilts, win the toss ups, and keep the incumbents. Sadly, even in a Democratic wave, some candidates lose. In a wave, they lose when they make mistakes or when events catch up to them. A bad bounce can make a Lean or even a Likely lose.
……Tina Smith https://tinaforminnesota.com/ is a Lean Democratic. Nevertheless, I am nervous. Tina Smith should be, too. She knows the dangers. She managed Ted Mondale’s unsuccessful campaign for Governor. When Senator Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in the middle of his campaign for reelection, the safe replacement was former Vice President, former Senator, Walter Mondale. He lost. Tina Smith managed that campaign, too.
……Tina Smith was appointed Senator by the Governor when Al Franken announced he would step down. She was a safe choice — competent and unlikely to have harassed anyone. Franken had been accused of touching women.
……Safe choices are not always safe.
……Smith has been involved in Minnesota politics for a long time. She came to Minnesota from Arizona to take a marketing job at General Mills. She later worked on her own as a marketing consultant. She also worked for the Planned Parenthood office serving Minnesota and the Dakotas.
……Smith became Minneapolis mayor RT Rybak’s chief of staff. She managed his gubernatorial campaign. He didn’t win the primary.
……Smith did work on one successful statewide campaign — Mark Dayton’s. Governor Dayton asked her to be his chief of staff. The next term, he chose her as Lt Governor before appointing her Senator.
……I’m nervous. The Rybak, Walter Mondale, and Ted Mondale campaigns all make me nervous.……I am not nervous about her competence. She was a more than effective chief of staff. I am not nervous about her politics. She wants to work on the wage gap for women. She wants a tax system, a government that focuses on doing right by working men and women. We can count on Tina Smith taking progressive positions on women’s issues, labor issues, equality issues, health care issues. ……Can we count on her winning? Can we count on ourselves? Will we help her win? Will we make sure that Tina Smith https://tinaforminnesota.com/ gets a win?
……Tina Smith‘s supporters would tell me not to be nervous. They would tell me not to underestimate her. They would remind me of her role in a state senator’s campaign, her first political involvement. A volunteer, she focused some of the ground game on usually ignored apartment buildings with transient populations. The election win was by less than a percentage point. The winning margin came from those buildings.
……Supporters of Tina Smith and Governor Mark Dayton would tell me not to be nervous. They would remind me of Tina Smith’s competence. They would tell me how quickly and successfully she grasped the constituent service role of a Senator.
……Still. I’m nervous. Help Tina Smith out. Calm my nerves.
……I am also nervous about the special Congressional election in Arizona 08. The special election is April 24. Republicans are spending a lot to defeat physician and cancer researcher Hiral Tipirneni and to moderate the Democratic wave. This District is more Republican than Conor Lamb’s Pennsylvania district. Help Tipirneni now. ……Don’t forget Shelley Mayer’s campaign for SD 37 in New York and the election on April 24. A win in this Westchester County District helps Democrats gain control of the New York State Senate.……………………………………
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