Did the Democrats achieve an amazing victory? Despite losing a Supreme Court seat, were the Republicans actually successful?
Wisconsin elects Supreme Court justices to ten-year terms. Once upon a time, those elections were non-partisan. Now they are technically non-partisan. Nearly all the voters understand which candidate is a conservative and a Republican and which is a progressive and a Democrat.
Holding the supreme court election in the spring may make it seem non-partisan. Not in a presidential election year. Wisconsin’s presidential primaries are held on the same day and the State Supreme Court election.
Two unusual things happened for the April 7, 2020 election.
- The election was held in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, despite frantic efforts by the Democratic governor to postpone the voting – for public safety and, Republicans would argue, to a later date when the Democratic judicial candidate would have a better chance to win.
- The Republicans did what they could to suppress the vote. Not only did they successfully resist postponing the election. The Republicans successfully resisted a broader use of absentee ballots. Despite the Republican success in the courts, the website 538 reports that 80% of the vote was by absentee ballot.
The total vote in 2020 was substantially less than in 2016. In 2016, about 1.5 million votes were cast in the Supreme Court election. In 2020, with a few precincts still not counted, roughly 1.2 million votes were cast. Were Democratic votes suppressed? In 2016, just over 1 million voted in the heavily contested Democratic primary. In 2020, in an equally heavily contested Democratic primary, just over 900,000 Democrats voted. I suggest that 10% of the Democratic vote was suppressed.
What about Republicans? In 2016, they had a highly contested Presidential primary, won by Ted Cruz. 1.1million Republicans participated. In 2020, there was no contest in the Republican primary. Just over 600,000 participated.
Look at the 2020 votes for judicial candidates. The Democrat, Jill Karofsky received roughly 845,000 votes while just over 900,000 Democrats voted in the primary. The losing Republican judicial candidate received fewer than 700,000 votes as 600,000 Republicans participated in the uncontested primary.
Two lessons from comparing the 2020 primary votes with the 2020 judicial election votes. Not many independents voted in April. More Democrats came out, attracted by the competitive presidential primary.
In 2016, the losing Democratic judicial candidate received almost 930,000 votes while one million Democrats voted in the primary. In 2016, the Republican winning judicial candidate received just over 1 million votes while 1.1 million voted in the Republican presidential primary.
Two lessons from comparing 2016 to 2020. A lot more Republicans voted when there was a competitive Republican primary. Enough more to elect a Republican Supreme Court Justice. In 2016,not many independents voted in April.
Now look at 2019. In 2019, Wisconsin had a Supreme Court election, but, of course, no presidential primary. The Democrat received just over 600,000 votes. The Republican won with 6,000 more votes than the Democrat. Remember from above. In 2020, the Democratic Supreme Court candidate received about 845,000 votes; the Republican less than 700,000 votes.
Lessons learned: Voter suppression can only do so much to reduce the Democratic vote. Even with only five voting sites in Milwaukee, voter suppression can’t offset a presidential primary. But efforts to suppress the Democratic vote in April can reduce the Democratic vote by something in the range of 100,000 votes.
The Democratic Supreme Court Justice won the election. The Republicans succeeded in suppressing the vote. That does not bode well for November. Democrats should not be confident as a result of Jill Karofsky’s election. They should be wary. They should be active. Get people registered. More followers of Tony the Democrat need to remind registered Democratic Wisconsinites to vote. Democrats who can should get absentee ballots for November. Democrats should do everything they can to offset Republicans voter suppression.
Remember the independents. People who would not register to be able to vote in a party primary. People who would not get out to vote for a Supreme Court Justice. In 2016, nearly 3 million people in Wisconsin voted for president and the US Senate race – Republicans winning both. In 2018, about 2.7 million voted for governor – the Democrat winning. In Wisconsin, Democrats have to overcome voter suppression, get out the base, and win over independents
