Let’s Keep the early states: Len’s suggestion
Look at our demographics · The United States is 73% white – or was in 2017 as estimated by the Census Bureau (which is still operating despite Donald Trump’s best efforts to destroy it.) · The United states is 17.6% Hispanic, regardless of race · The United states is 12.7% black or African American. · The only other large group are Asians at 5.3% My suggestion is twofers. Two pairs of caucuses. Keep some traditions. Modify the order to fix the demographics. First Pair of Caucuses Begin with two caucuses. On the same day. Iowa. And Nevada Iowa is a small state. It is also overwhelmingly white. 91%. It has 3.1 million people and about 628,000 Democrats, almost exactly the same number as there are Republicans. In 2016 about 170,000 Democrats voted in the caucuses, a little less than the 180,000 Republicans who voted. The Democrats can straighten their caucuses and not make the mistakes they made in 2020. Iowa Is small enough for retail politics.. Nevada is a touch smaller than Iowa. It has 3 million people and is more diverse. 51% non-Hispanic white plus 16.8% Hispanic white, 8.6% African American, and 7.8% Asian. Pretty close to the national figures. There are approximately 289,000 Republicans in Nevada and 578,000 Democrats in Nevada. About 100,000 Democrats participated this year. 75 % submitted early votes. 25% showed up for the caucuses. Second Pair. Primaries. A week or two later. New Hampshire can still have its first in the nation primary. It would have to share the day (or maybe the week). New Hampshire is a small state. More opportunity for retail politics. Only 1.35 million people. It is whiter than Iowa – 94%. There are more Asians—2.2 % — than blacks – 1.1%. There are slightly fewer registered Democrats than Republicans – 267,000 v 274,000. New Hampshire is right for retail politics as we have seen. A little over 250, 000 voted in the Democratic primary; About 280,000 voted in the Republican primary. These numbers are so large because New Hampshire allows people to vote in Primaries even if they are not registered in that party.’’ South Carolina is larger. More than 5 million people. It is 68% white, 27% black. With a lot more Republicans than Democras. About one million Democrats and about 1.8 million Republicans. These four states are enough. Paired they provide the diversity we need. |