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November 1st 2025. Len’s Political Note #763 Haley Stevens Michigan US Senate
2026 General Election
Haley Stevens
Pundits agree on which US Senate races are toss ups:
Georgia’s Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is in a toss up race with whoever the Republican candidate proves to be – probably Congressman Mike Collins. See Len’s Political Note #713, DONATE to Senator Ossoff’s campaign
North Carolina’s former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is in a toss up race with whoever the Republican candidate proves to be – probably former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. See Len’s Political Note #744. DONATE to Governor Cooper’s campaign to flip a Republican seat
New Hampshire’s Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas is in a toss up race with whoever the Republican candidate proves to be – probably former US Senator John Sununu, but maybe former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown. See Len’s Political Note #743. DONATE to Congressman Chris Pappas’s campaign to hold a Democratic Senate seat after a retirement.
Michigan’s Democratic candidate, probably Congresswoman Haley Stevens, but maybe County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed or State Senator Mallory McMorrow, is in a toss up race with former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. Haley Stevens is a slight front runner. She has the edge in money raised: $4.7 million to McMorrow’s $3.9 million and El Sayed’s $3.6 million. The most recent poll, in May, 2025 – a year and a half before the election, so not very meaningful, had Haley Stevens leading Rogers by a point, McMorrow trailing Rogers by 4 points, and El Sayed trailing Rogers by 6 points.
Things could change. but the Michigan primary is not until August 4. If we wait to donate money to Mike Rogers’ Democratic opponent, he will have accumulated a huge lead in the money race.
We don’t want to choose the wrong candidate — one who would lose in the primary or worse, one who would lose in the general election. The odds are the current situation will remain as is. Haley Stevens will continue to have a little more to spend than the other two Democrats and polls will continue to show her doing better against Mike Rogers than the other Democrats. She will probably win the August primary.
Decide for yourself, of course, whether Haley Stevens is sufficiently appealing to you to support for the nomination and election. But remember. Democrats must protect all of their vulnerable seats and gain four more seats if they are to gain a majority in the Senate. They can begin flipping Republican seats by supporting Roy. They need to protect the New Hampshire seat and the Georgia seat described above.
Democrats begin their march to flipping four Republican seats by electing Roy Cooper in North Carolina. They protect vulnerable Democratically held seats by supporting the incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia and the consensus Democratic nominee Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. They need to protect the open Democratic seat in Michigan. My advice is to protect it by supporting Haley Stevens.
INTERLUDE
These are not normal times. Our collective hair should be on fire. Donald Trump is demonstrating that the guardrails are gone. He is demolishing the White House, the building created as the “People’s House.” He is planning on a 230 million dollar gift from the Justice Department.
Notwithstanding the occasional feint, Trump emulates Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin. Trump seeks to gain as much power over and more wealth from his country than Putin has achieved in Russia. Without a majority in the House or Senate, with no sway in the Supreme Court, Democrats are nearly helpless as they fight a rear-guard guerilla war via the Senate filibuster along with a few state by state battles.
Haley Stevens was born and grew up in Detroit suburbs. In her official website as a member of Congress she describes her parents as entrepreneurial. They ran a business, a business that is central to life in the suburbs. They were landscapers. They kept your lawn green, put in your bushes, trimmed your trees so they weren’t dangerous.
The Stevenses raised their daughter as a Democrat and as a communicator (She won a school district-wide speaking competition as a 5th grader). Her parents divorced and her stepfather had a different kind of job. He worked for Chrysler.
After high school, Haley Stevens left home for Washington DC. She got a BA in political science and philosophy from American University in 2005, came home to Michigan to work for the state’s Democratic party, went back to Washington and American University and, in 2007, got a Master’s Degree in social policy and philosophy. With that degree in hand, she went to work for the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign.
Barack Obama became the Democratic nominee, not Hillary Clinton. Haley Stevens’ work on that campaign was for the Vice-Presidential candidate – Joe Biden. After the election, she became part of the transition process and, like many who work on transitions, landed a job in the administration. In her case, she was in the Treasury Department, the department that was in the forefront of dealing with the financial collapse Barack Obama was faced with as he took office.
Haley Stevens would say that, in the treasury department, especially in a time of crisis, (the crisis was the potential collapse of the economy), the incoming Obama administration approached that crisis as problem solvers. Some regret that they looked first to solve the problems of banks and insurance, but Haley Stevens expresses no regret.
Consider what Haley Stevens observed and helped with – the preservation of this country’s banking system and a good part of its insurance industry.
In 2009, from Treasury, Hillary Stevens was appointed Chief of Staff to Steven Rattner, head of the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry. When the Task Force was created, the automobile industry in the United States was in deep trouble as a result of the 2007/8 recession. Without a bailout, this industry, symbolic of the country’s strength and the employer of as many as 4 million people, was in danger of liquidation. As a consequence of the Task Force’s recommendations, Chrysler and General Motors went in and out of bankruptcy, received $25 Billion in loans, restructured wages and benefits, replaced its corporate leadership, and restructured the nature of the automobiles they manufactured. They restarted the industry. The US spent close to $80 Billion dollars on the project and received nearly 80% back from the industry as it grew healthy.
Consider what Haley Stevens observed and helped with – the preservation of the automobile industry in the United States
In 2009, Haley Stevens went to the Digital Innovation and Design Institute which was located in Chicago. The Institute operated a nearly 100,000-square-foot innovation center assessing advanced manufacturing equipment. The institute has awarded research and development projects worth tens of millions of dollars in states throughout the country.
The culmination of Haley Stevens work at the Institute began in 2014 when she became the Director for Workforce Development and Manufacturing Engagement. She oversaw a national strategy to train and educate the current and future workforce in digital manufacturing technologies and processes. She was also responsible for the engagement of small and medium sized manufacturers and the development of programs to assist efforts to prepare workers in these businesses to use digital technologies
Consider Haley Stevens involvement the effort to transform the American workforce.
After her work on workforce development, she returned to politics, but this time electoral politics of her own. She went back to Michigan to run for Congress. Elected to Congress, she presented herself as fighting for Michigan’s manufacturing and auto industries. She was a leader in writing and passing the CHIPS and Science Act and a leader in creating ways for middle and high school students to learn the skills required for digital manufacture. She was a part of the transformation of vocational high schools into technology centers.
Consider the depth of Haley Stevens knowledge of American manufacturing and its transformation to the use of 21st century technology.
Haley Stevens is a business oriented Democrat. She does bring a commitment to Democratic priorities that range from health to education to ensuring opportunity for all. After the 2026 primary (assuming I am correct in my judgment that she will win) , she will be running against former Congressman Mike Rogers.
Previously an FBI agent in Chicago, Rogers returned to Michigan to run for the state senate and then to be elected to Congress in 2000. He won by 111 votes to replace Debbie Stabenow who, that election year, ran successfully for the US Senate.
In the House Rogers served on the Select Committee on Intelligence and on the Energy and Commerce Committee. He retired in 2014, planning a late career in talk radio, moved to Florida and undertook something of a career as a lobbyist. He returned to Michigan in 2024 to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate when Debbie Stabenow retired. He has supported Trump’s tariff proposals, opposed Medicare negotiating drug prices, blamed crime rates on “open borders,” and supported Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
Haley Stevens is a rare figure in American politics. Her business orientation and her understanding of partnerships between the government and the private sector is grounded in her experience as a participant and an observer of the preservation of the American economy. Her further work on training American workers for the 21st century only adds to that distinctiveness. DONATE. Help Haley Stevens get elected to the US Senate.
Other Michigan Races
Michigan 07 Democrats lost this seat to Republican Tom Barrett in 2022 when Elise Slotkin left to run successfully for the US Senate. I see no polls for Michigan Congressional districts, but there is a money race that can be reported. Former Ambassador to Ukraine Democrat Bridget Brink appears to be the front runner. See Len’s Political Note #742. As of September 30, she had raised $1.2 million. She will need to defeat, among others, retired Navy SEAL and Obama advisor Democrat Matt Maasdam who had raised $600,000. DONATE to Bridget Brnk’s campaign. The Incumbent Republican Tom Barrett: has raised $2.1 million
‘Michigan 08 In 2024, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected to this open Democratic seat even though Donald Trump carried the district. She has raised $2.4 million. The only Republican candidate to day, Navy Veteran and postal inspector Amir Hassan has raised $200,000. DONATE to her campaign if it becomes more competitive.
Michigan 10. This seat’s incumbent Republican, John James, is the leader for the Republican nomination for Governor. In the Democratic financial race for MI 10, there appear to be two front runners – Tim Greimel, the mayor of Pontiac, Michigan, who has raised $1 million, and former prosecutor Eric Chung, who raised $900,000. Others may be competitive – former prosecutor Christina Hines raised a little more than $400,000 and former bomb disposal officer Alex Hawkins raised a little less than $400,000. .
The only Republican who has announced and made a financial dent is former Prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj who raised $650,000.
Winning this seat would be a pick up for the Democrats. When it appears clear who the Democratic primary winner will be, DONATE so that the candidate has the resources to defeat the Republican candidate.
Michigan 11 This is the seat that Haley Stevens is leaving to run for the US Senate.No Republicans have made a sufficient dent to consider their fund raising success. Democratic Attorney Jeremy Moss had raised $600,000 on September 30.
Michigan Governor. There are polls for this race. An October poll, funded by independent candidate and former Detroit mayor Mike Duggan, showed Democratic Secretary of state Joyce Benson leading with 30 points followed closely by Republican Congressman John James at 29 and Mike Duggan at 26. A poll in May had Benson at 35, James at 34, and Duggan at 22. Duggan may have gained enough to be competitive. Or the three-way race described in the October poll is a product of the being funded by Duggan.
As for the financial race, the information we have is from July. Benson had receipts of $3.5 million, but more than a million of that was transferred from her 2022 Secretary of State race. Duggan had slightly less revenue, but all $3.2 million was raised in the old-fashioned way. John James was a little behind with $2.3 million.
DONATE to Jocelyn Benson, the current Michigan Secretary of State. She is a former staffer for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the former Dean of Wayne State Law School. See Len’s Political Note #747.
Races in Ohio, Michigan’s Neighbor and Rival
US Senator
Sherrod Brown, ousted in 2024 by multi-millionaire car dealer Bernie Moreno is running against former Lt. Governor Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. Initial polls after Sherrod Brown entered the race showed him trailing 50-44. The most recent poll, however, found him leading Husted 49-48. We are a year from the election and money counts. On June 30, Sherrod Brown had receipts of $7 million; Husted had $6 million. DONATE to the Sherrod Brown campaign. Flip that seat back to the Democrat. See Len’s Political Note #750
Two Ohio Democratic House seats are in jeopardy. That is especially the case because Ohio must redistrict before 2026 based on state law that mandates redistricting if no minority party member in the legislature or on the redistricting commission supported the districts established for 2022. The redistricting could jeopardize more Democratic seats.
Ohio 09 Marcy Kaptur is 79 years old and seeking her 23rd term in Congress. Now a moderate Democrat, her roots were in the Roman Catholic left. Republicans thought they had redistricted her out of office in 2022, but their candidate’s lies about his military service did him in. The 2024 election was closer. She defeated a state legislator by 2,282 votes. Republicans think they have her this time with the same candidate – Derek Merrin. Help her extend her record as the longest serving member of Congress ever. DONATE. She raised $1.1 million as of September 30. Her probable opponent had raised $400,000 by that same date. See Len’s Political Note #718.
Ohio 13 Emilia Sykes is 39 years old and seeking her third term in Congress. The scioness of an African American political family, her mother and her father each served for years in the Ohio state legislature representing the City of Akron. Before being elected to Congress, Emilia Sykes was the Ohio House minority leader. Even before further redistricting, Ohio 13 is 75% white. Help Emilia Sykes remain in Congress. DONATE. She raised $1.3 million as of September 30. Her probable opponent, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin had raised $500,000. See Len’s Political Note #728
Governor. Former state medical director and child of poverty and divorce Dr. Amy Acton is the Democrat in the race for this seat — open because Governor Mike DeWine is term limited. Dr. Amy Acton is compared to Dr. Anthony Fauci by her admirers and her detractors. Her Republican opponent is Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk’s DOGE collaborator until they had a falling out. By June 30, Amy Acton had raised $1.35 million. A Pennsylvania billionaire donated $10 million to a Ramaswamy PAC. Ramaswamy’s net worth is $1.3 billion. His campaign website pleads for help: ‘We can’t do this without you.’ Even without his billionaire friends, he certainly can raise all the money he needs on his own. Money, however, is not necessarily enough. The most recent poll, published on October 17, suggests a close race – Ramaswamy led 50 – 47. This is a year before the election and you can make a difference. DONATE to the Amy Action campaign. See Len’s Political Note #724.
Dan Democrats flip the US Senate?
Democrats will need to hold their toss-ups: Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire. And Democrats will need to flip four seats. North Carolina and Ohio are two possibilities already mentioned today.
The two others?
Maine if Democrats can choose a candidate early. That is probably Governor Janet Mills.
If Maine is the third seat to flip, where do we find the fourth?
Alaska – If former Congresswoman Mary Peltola runs
Iowa – if the Democrats can choose among their three candidates soon enough.
Kansas – If independent Dan Osborn can do even better in 2026 than he did in 2024
Texas – if Democrats can choose among their four candidates soon enough while Republicans have a bitter battle among their three. Former Congress Colin Allred is probably the Democrats choice.
There are a few others states where the Democrats could find a winner; though the chances are slimmer.
Florida – Democrats have two unknown candidates – former school board member Jennifer Jenkins and economic opportunity advocate Hector Mujica each wanting to run against the relatively unknown recently appointed US Senator.
Kentucky – The underfunded House Minority Leader Pam Stevenson and, when she last ran and lost to Mitch McConnell, the extremely well-funded Amy McGrath are competing against whoever the Republicans choose to fill Mitch McConnell’s seat.
Mississippi – An appealing African American with ten years as an elected District Attorney, Scott Colom, is running against the Senator who blocked his appointment as a federal district judge
South Dakota – Emulating Kansas, retired AF Lt. Col Brian Bengs is attempting to be the independent alternative to a Republican US Senator who does not excite the MAGAa.
