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April 5th Len’s Political Note #717 Derek Tran California 45
2026 General Election
I wrote the following in anticipation of the April 1 elections.
In Florida, if the Republicans are held to less than 60% of the vote in the Florida 01 and Florida 06 special congressional elections, that will be a slight turn of the tide against Donald Trump and his Republican followers. If they are held to less than 55% of the vote, that will be a genuine turn of the tide against Donald Trump and his Republican followers. If one of those races is a Democratic win, that will promise a tsunami against Donald Trump and his Republican followers.
In Wisconsin, if Susan Crawford is elected to the state Supreme Court, we will know the tide has turned against Trump puppet master Elon Musk as well.
The Republican votes in Florida 01 and Florida 06 are right about the 56% mark, Republicans won by half or less than half of what they were accustomed to in those districts. We are between a “slight turn of the tide” against Donald Trump and the Republicans and a “genuine turn of the tide.”
If Wisconsin is the tie breaker, Susan Crawford’s ten point victory for the Supreme Court and Jill Underly’s six point win in a state accustomed to wins by a point or two should give Democrats confidence, but not overwhelming confidence, as we move toward additional elections in 2025 and decisive elections in 2026.
Below, we continue our effort to identify and help the most vulnerable Democratic Members of Congress. We cannot flip the House of Representatives in 2026 unless we first protect the Democratic incumbents who need our help the most.
Derek Tran is the second most vulnerable Democratic Member of Congress according to the Len Lubinsky simple-minded measure of vulnerability. Derek Tran’s was the second closest Democratic win in 2024. He ousted the Republican incumbent by 998 votes. And that was not Derek Tran’s closest race. He came in second in the District’s top two non-partisan primary defeating the third place finisher by 367 votes.
The election run-off, the general election was not polite. Like the combative, local attorney Derek Tran had been, he attacked. He attacked Incumbent Michelle Steel’s husband Shawn, a wealthy businessman, formerly the head of California’s Republican Party and a former head of the national Republican Party’s leadership.
One starting point was a private dinner that Shawn Steel had hosted in 2020 for Chinese citizens which included a member of the central government’s leadership. Derek Tran claimed Shawn Steel had been paid to bring Chinese spies to America. The Steel response was that the guests had not paid to attend the dinner. Derek Tran pressed his point that people could not expect Congresswoman Michelle Steel to stand up to the Chinese Communist Party.
Michelle Steel’s claims were equally inflammatory. She claimed, inaccurately, that Derek Tran has been endorsed by “socialist” Bernie Sanders. She further claimed that Derek Tran was hiding thousands of dollars of Chinese connected cryptocurrency. Derek Tran owned up to a cryptocurrency account that included Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He insisted his accounts had no link to China, that China had actually banned all cryptocurrencies in 2021.
Ethnicity underlay the tense exchanges of mailers about trust and Chinese connections. California 45 is south, west, and north of Anaheim, nearly encircling that city of 340,000 people. The district includes the largest concentration of people with Vietnamese heritage outside of Vietnam. Many of these people left Vietnam to escape the Communist victors in the war. As they became American citizens, many of them voted anti-Communist Republican.
Derek Tran was born in the United States. His father had escaped Vietnam after the fall of Saigon as a boat person. He could not escape the dangers of the open seas. His wife and children were killed in an overturned boat. He returned to Vietnam, began life again, remarried, and again left Vietnam for the United States.
Forty-four years old, 25 years younger than the incumbent Michelle Steel, Derek Tran’s credentials ring true in his community and in this district. His family created a little grocery where Derek worked until he graduated from high school. Derek Tran joined the army after graduation. With the army’s help, got a BA from business oriented Bentley University. His JD is from closer to home – Glendale College of Law.
After spending eight years in the service, Derek Tran moved to Orange County in 2012. He opened up his own law practice in 2014 – The Tran Firm. Married to a pharmacist, they are raising three children. He focused on consumer law and personal injury cases. He is on the board of the Consumer Attorneys Association of California as well as the Los Angeles branch of that Association. He describes himself as a fierce litigator, fierce enough to get local recognition for his successes. He mentors students and donates to local causes and to local and national Democrats.
Derek Tran portrays himself as challenging greedy corporations. He speaks about his his family’s sacrifice to make their store run while they were saved by the American safety net. He is a passionate supporter of programs like SNAP (supplemental nutrition), WIC (nutrition for women, infants, and children), and Section 8 housing vouchers. He argues he can work across the aisle with Republicans. His fierceness, his passions, his view of how to live in America are the qualities that brought him to his extremely narrow victory over Congressional incumbent Michelle Steel.
Asked about her background in a political interview, Michelle Park Steel once claimed she was more Vietnamese than her opponent, Derek Tran. She was attempting to describe her sympathies, not her actual background.
Her father’s expatriate Korean family was living in Shanghai China when he was born. Michelle Park Steel was born in Seoul, South Korea and educated in Japan as well as the United States. Her college degree is from Pepperdine, her MBA from the University of Southern California. Connected to powerful Republicans, she was elected to the California Board of (Tax) Equalization before being elected to the Orange County Board of Supervisors and, in 2020, to Congress.
Among non-ethnic related issues, Derek Tran exploited the difference between lhis views and the incumbent’s on reproductive freedom. He is fully supportive of women’s reproduction freedom. In contrast, Steel had co-sponsored the Life Begins at Conception Act. When she came to understand that the proposal would make IVF illegal, she retreated to a more moderate “pro-life” position. After all, she had had her own difficulty in conceiving children.
Michelle Park Steel’s positions had earned the enmity of the Hews Media Group. Their community newspapers reported that Michelle Steele had opposed
- The Women’s Health Protection Act of 2221 and 2022 both of which protected the right to an abortion.
- The Ensuring Access to Abortion Act which would have protected the right to cross state lines to get an abortion.
- The Right to Contraception Act which would have protected men and women against a potential supreme court judgment to eliminate that right.
- The Right to Marriage Act which recognized the equality of same sex marriages
She opposed other proposals unrelated to Reproductive Freedom
- The Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 which sought to limit access to these weapons
- The Workplace Violence Prevention for Health Care and Social Services Workers Act which would have set a standard to enforce expectations of employers
And there is more. She opposed aid to Ukraine and funds for the Peace Corp. She opposed efforts to reduce the cost of insulin and efforts to reduce the cost of gasoline.
Her Congressional votes gave Derek Tran enough of an edge so that he was elected by a 50.1 to 49.9 percent margin. DONATE to Derek Tran. Donate now and throughout the campaign. Keep him in Congress.
I have already suggested making regular donations to a few 2026 candidates.
California 13’s Adam Gray A former California Assemblyman who flipped a Republican seat by a 187 vote margin in 2024. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #716
Georgia’s US Senator Jon Ossoff. A former Congressional aide and investigative documentary reporter. He was elected in 2020 (2021 including the runoff) by a 50.6-49.4 margin. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #717
Arizona’s Governor Katie Hobbs. A former social worker and secretary of state. She was elected in 2022 by a 50.3 – 49.7 margin. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #712
Arizona’s Attorney General Kristin Mayes. A law professor and former Republican state Corporate Commission Member. She was elected Attorney General as a Democrat in 2022 by 280 votes, a 50.01-49.99 margin. DONATE. See Len’s. Political Note #714
Ohio’s Democratic Secretary of State candidate Bryan Hambley. An appealing Dr. Smith goes to Columbus running for an open Republican seat.
North Carolina’s Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs. She won the 2024 election by 634 votes (a 50.1-49.9 margin). Formerly a leader in the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, she was appointed by the governor as an Association Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. Her opponent in the 2024 election has been suing to invalidate some votes and the 5-1 Republican State Supreme Court has not allowed her to take her seat. DONATE. In this case, support her law suit to allow all votes to count. See Len’s Political Note # 594
