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February 28th , 2025 Len’s Political Note #709 Three Virginia House of Delegates Seats to Flip
2025 General Election
Do you live in a state other than Virginia? You may think Virginia is outside of your interests? I urge you to consider otherwise. Every state affects us. Virginia’s neighbor to the south, for instance, has joined the Republican tendency to care about outcomes rather than the law. Consider North Carolina.
In November, 2024, North Carolina had a Supreme Court election. Just one seat. The Republican lost – which would maintain the Republican 5-2 majority on the Court. The Republican candidate will not give up. The Democrat, Allison Riggs, has still not returned to her seat on the Supreme Court. Whether she returns or not will be up to the 5 Republicans and 1 Democrat on the Court. We will see just how fair that Court will be.
We know that Court approved gerrymandered Congressional districts that elected 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats instead of the existing 7-7 split. In November, if the North Carolina Court had insisted on the previous districts, the House of Representatives result would have been 118 Democrats and 117 Republicans. Think what the United States would be like today with a House of Representatives that had a Democratic majority.
Virginia is not like your state or mine (unless your state is New Jersey). Virginia elects its Governor, its Lt. Governor, its Attorney General, its House of Delegates, and its Senate the year after a Presidential election. You may have read Len’s Political Note #705. That Note encourages you to support former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. She will be the Democratic nominee for Governor.
Virginia’s House of Delegates (like a House of Representatives) has 100 members. Right now, there are 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. That is not a comfortable majority. If we want Virginia to have a Governor who can stand up to Donald Trump we need a Democratic legislature in Virginia as well as a Democratic governor
Here are a three legislative remaches which Democrats can flip this time. With a change of fewer than 1,000 votes, all three districts would have elected the Democrats in 2023. The filing deadline for 2025 is not until April 3, but we appear to know now who the Democratic and Republican candidates are for these three districts.
Virginia House District 82
Kimberly Pope Adams is running again against the incumbent Republican Kim Taylor. In 2023, the margin between the two candidates was 53 votes. This is a Republican leaning district south of Richmond that stretches west from Newport News and includes Petersburg. Kimberly Pope Adams is entering this phase of the election with a financial advantage: $55,000 to $12,000. We are not talking big money here. You can make a difference.
Kimberly Pope Adams grew up in Hopewell, the youngest of three daughters. She graduated from Hopewell High School, and earned enough scholarship funds to attend Virginia Tech. Her parents had been divorced young. Her mother was a school crossing guard. Both parents retained enough of a connection with their daughter to encourage education.
After college graduation, Kimberly Pope Adams got a job with a CPA firm and then went to work for Virginia State University. Initially, an auditor, she became the manager of Foundation Accounting, which included serving as financial liaison with the VSU Foundation. She has worked for the University and the state for more than 25 years, becoming Director of the University’s Auxiliary Services before leaving to serve as a Senior Internal Auditor for the State Treasuring Department. She returned to Virginia State where she continues to serve as its Assistant Director of Financial Compliance and Operations. Along the way, she earned an MBA from Liberty University (You will recognize that as Jerry Falwell’s school).
Having lost an election by 53 votes, this is what Kimberly Pope Adams has to say: “Yet, even amid [the political] turmoil, the value of accepting defeat is a powerful reminder of democracy’s strength.”
She is back again for another try and begins her discussion of issues by emphasizing public safety. She seeks a law enforcement work force that can work easily with the community it serves and will cooperate with communities which seek innovative solutions. She will work with the legislature to ensure sufficient funds for the police departments and sheriff offices.
Her second priority is education. She acknowledges the frustrations of parents and teachers – the problems of old and deteriorated school buildings and funding that is so inadequate that the education community has to do fund raising for basic educational needs.
Her third priority is reproductive rights. Having observed the efforts of a Republican governor and a legislative minority that continues to believe it can gain a majority, one way or another, she promises to oppose attempts to ban abortions in Virginia, attempts to create obstacles to obtaining an abortion such as mandatory waiting periods, and to oppose limits to women’s access to contraception.
Her opponent is incumbent Kim Taylor. So far, Taylor has won two extremely close races in a row. A graduate of Virginia Commonwealth University, she initially worked in real estate, then, with her husband, opened two automobile repair shops. She entered politics understanding that her district was not extreme and, in office, was one of only five Republican members of the House of Delegates to support same sex marriage. She is a Republican though. She promises to reduce corporate and personal income taxes. Her second priority is expanding broad band access to help small businesses; students, too. Her third focus is education. She believes that Virginia schools have a politicized curriculum, which she would help eliminate.
Help Kimberly Pope Adams win this one. DONATE.
Virginia House District 41
Lily Franklin is running again against the incumbent Chris Obenshain. In 2023, the margin between the two candidates was 183 votes. From its geographic apex, Virginia slopes southwest toward a point where it meets Kentucky and Tennessee. About one third of the way from point to point, across from West Virginia, is Blacksburg, the home of Virginia Tech and the anchor for House District 41. If a Democrat is going to win an election in this district, a large turnout of college students in needed. Lily Franklin is entering this phase of the campaign with a financial advantage — $50,000 to $13,000.
A 2015 graduate of Longwood University, Lily Franklin is the right age to attract students. Longwood is a small public university in Farmville, Virginia – 70% women, 75% white, 5% from out of state. After graduation, Lily Franklin taught as part of Teach for America. After teaching, her career has been in politics. She has been a staffer in state-wide political campaigns and an aide to an elected delegate. For the past two years, she worked for the Town of Christiansburg in District 41.
Having lost a close election, she recalled her experience. “I sat with thousands of people on their front porches and in their kitchens, listening to their stories. It was through those conversations that I learned just how much people are struggling.”
She committed herself to trying again. “What I saw [in my campaign] was more than frustration; it was a need for leaders who address everyday challenges—affordable homeownership and fair rental options, meaningful tax relief, accessible childcare, protecting reproductive freedom, and quality education. These are not just political talking points; they’re urgent needs that can’t be put off.”
Her opponent, Chris Obenshain, attended Bridgewater College, a private school affiliated with the Church of the Brethren. He has a law degree from the University of Virginia and served as a prosecutor in Montgomery county. He now lives in and was elected to office from Blacksburg where his grandfather had been a doctor.
Obenshain describes his priorities as including “a parent-first education system,” communities made safer through tough law enforcement as well as a prohibition of parole, and reductions in the cost of living through elimination of the grocery tax, reductions in electric rates, and returning budget surpluses to tax payers.
Help Lily Franklin flip this seat. DONATE. We need a Democratic Virginia during the time of Trump.
Virginia House District 71
Jessica Anderson is running again against the incumbent Amanda Batten. In 2023, the margin between these two candidates was 667 votes, less than 1%. With Williamsburg on its southeastern border, the district extends north, much of it along the York River. This is a swing district – carried by Kamala Harris and Tim Kaine in 2024, by Glenn Youngkin in 2021. Jessica Anderson will have to overcome a financial disadvantage — $275,000 in funds available to $75,000.
Jessica Anderson is a community college graduate who touts herself as a non-politician, an ordinary member of the community. Her life experience reflects that. Her divorce was so difficult, she and her children experienced food insecurity. A 41 year old, now in her second marriage, with school age children and college age children from her first marriage, she is working as a school receptionist. Before her divorce she worked for a dentist, managing bills and insurance
As a political candidate Jessica Anderson describes her priorities as “strengthening the public education system, protecting reproductive rights, enacting family care policies, and passing common sense gun safety reforms that will keep our kids and communities safe from senseless violence.”
These priorities are what you would expect from a Democrat. Her responses to questions, though, are unexpected. They are remarkably lucid.
On the governor’s proposed 15 week abortion ban: ‘Governor Youngkin’s ultimate goal is a total ban on abortions and a 15 week ban is nothing more than an attempt to appear moderate and garner votes. Youngkin refuses to acknowledge that elective abortions do not occur after 15 weeks and a ban like that would simply cause physicians to hesitate, out of fear of legal ramifications, when dealing with life-threatening medical decisions. Politicians have no business interfering in private, personal medical decisions made between a patient and their healthcare provider. I do not support abortion restrictions that endanger the lives of our citizens and criminalize them or their doctors. We currently have sound laws in Virginia as it pertains to abortion access and it should remain as such.”
On the politicization of public education: “Our public schools serve the majority of our K-12 students and deserve nothing less than to be fully funded so that we can ensure the success of all of our students. As a public school front office receptionist, I know that teachers, school staff, and the parents in our community want nothing but the best for our children. Those attempting to politicize public education and send our taxpayer dollars to private schools, at the detriment of the majority of our families, do not have our children’s best interests at heart. I will always be a steadfast supporter of public education and ensuring its success.”
On what she believes is Virginia’s most important issue: “[W]e seem to have countless issues facing Virginians, one being the support of our hard working families. Virginia has consistently been one of the top states for business in the nation, but not for workers, ranking near the bottom with cost of living and capital needed to start a new business. We need to continue to grow our economy, attract the best businesses to Virginia, and create jobs in new sectors while ensuring that our workforce is skilled and compensated fairly. With pro-business and pro-worker policies, we can achieve both and ensure Virginia remains prosperous for years to come.”
On why she is running for office: “Years ago, while going through a difficult divorce, I struggled to provide food and health insurance to my 3 young daughters. My experience navigating our social safety nets gave me a unique perspective on how we can better uplift and support Virginians during their toughest times. Like many in my community, I’m a working class mother who believes that all families deserve the same opportunities to thrive as I have had. I’m ready to serve the 71st District in the Virginia House of Delegates and get to work on the issues affecting my community the most.”
The incumbent, Republican Amanda Batten, is a graduate of Ashford University. She worked as a legislative aide before running for office successfully. Currently she has served and still serves on several boards including the Jamestown–Yorktown Foundation and the Governor’s Aerospace Industry Advisory Council. In 2023, she celebrated teacher appreciation day by bringing donuts to the teachers in several schools in her district. The teachers’ union blasted her, pointing out that the donuts were labeled as having been purchased from Battens’ campaign funds and argued that her political positions were anti-teacher; that Batten was an opponent of collective bargaining in public schools and was an advocate for alternatives to public schools.
I urge you to DONATE to and support Jessica Anderson. With your help, she will make up those 667 votes and more.
More on Virginia later
There are at least two seats that are close enough to flip. We will have to wait, though. At least two Republican seats should be vulnerable: VAHD57 and VAHD89. Both have two Democrats contesting to be the nominee. The primary is June 17. After we know who the Democratic nominee is, I will ask you to support that candidate and flip those seats.
November, 2025 is soon. Even sooner, though, we have elections a month away. Now would be a good time to donate money to candidates for those elections.
Florida Special Congressional Elections. April 1
Some time before April 1, Republicans will have a 217-215 majority in the US House of Representatives. Does that mean that a victory in all three elections would create a 218-217 Democratic majority? Accurate, but unlikely. Both districts have voted 2-1 Republican. Keeping the Republicans below 60% would be a kind of triumph and encourage Democrats in their planning for 2026 Congressional elections. Donate to reduce the Republican margin and to take the chance that Democrats could win one or both of these races.
Don’t forget Mike Zimmer’s recent special election victory in Iowa’s 35th State Senate District, a district that had voted 2-1 Republican in past elections including the 2024 presidential election. On January 28, this contractor and former educator defeated a Republican activist and flipped the State Senate seat by a 52-48 margin. The Downballot blog, reporting on two state senate special election victories in Delaware noted those results made it six out of seven times that Democrats in 2025 did better in a special election than the Democratic candidate for president did in 2024. On average, Democrats are doing 9 points better than Kamala Harris. In addition, pundit James Carville reports that the polls he sees suggest that the generic pols gove Democrats a 13 point margin natinoally in House of Representatives races.
Democrats appear to be on track to a special election year resembling 2017/2018 when they did an average of 11 points better than Hillary Clinton did, heralding a blue wave. If these special elections are a sign for the future, Democrats can be hopeful and Republicans should be afraid.
While a 9 point or even 13 point swing would not be enough to win Florida 01 or Florida 06, 9 would be very close in New York 21. Donate to these races. Some candidates do better than average, some even raise the average. Keeping the Republicans under 60% in these districts is a kind of triumph. Help these Democrats out.
Florida 01: Gay Valimont is the Democratic nominee. Gay Valimont is the former head of the Florida Chapter of Mom’s Demand Action, a gun safety organization. She has returned to politics after two family tragedies. She understands how Republican her district is. She is both courageous and energetic enough to give it her all in a very tough cause. Her opponent is the former CFO for the state of Florida. He proposed using Florida tax money to defend Donald Trump in his criminal trials. That proposal was too extreme even for the Florida legislature. DONATE to Gay Valimont. See Len’s Political Note #694.
Florida 06: Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee. He is a teacher of middle school boys who have not been able to remain in typical classrooms, a job that may be tougher than seeking election as a Democrat in FL 06. Originally exercised by the 2020 Democratic losses in Florida, he describes his commitment to his own children and his students as energizing his campaign. His opponent is Randy Fine, wealthy from the gaming industry, an opponent of rights for members of the LGBTQ community, an opponent of abortion. Fine is convinced that God saved Donald Trump so he could be president. DONATE TO Josh Weil. See Len’s Political Note #704.
New York Special Election – Date still unknown
New York 21. Blake Gendebien will be the Democratic nominee. There was opposition, but no primary. He persuaded all 15 of the Democratic Party Chairs, who New York state law give the authority to select the candidate, to support him. He is a dairy farmer, not a politician. But he knows enough about politics to be successful. We have no idea who the Republican nominee will be. It appears that the Republican Party chairs don’t know much more than we do about who their nominee will be. Furthermore, none of us know when this special election will be. We won’t know until the Congresswoman, who has been nominated to be Trump’s Ambassador to the UN, is confirmed by the Senate and resigns from Congress. Help Blake Gendebien maintain his head start. DONATE to his campaign.
Wisconsin – General Election April 1
State Supreme Court
Support Democratic County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford against former Attorney General Brad Schimel. Currently Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority. Susan Crawford is running to replace a Democratic justice who is retiring. A Republican win would give the court a 4-3 Republican majority. This race is crucial for preserving the right to abortion in Wisconsin, for preserving an un-gerrymandered state legislature and eliminating voter suppression. This will be a very expensive election. Republicans are geared up. DONATE to Susan Crawford. See Len’s Political Note #684
State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Support Democratic incumbent Jill Underly in the primary and in the general election. Jill underly serves as a bulwark against right wing culture war positions. DONATE. Keep a successful Democrat in a leadership role in Wisconsin. See Len’s Political Note #693.
North Carolina Supreme Court
Support Allison Riggs in her post-election legal battles. DONATE. Help her win the election months after she actually won her election. See Len’s Political Note #594
