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October 17th , 2024 Len’s Political Note #678 Defending Six Democratic seats in the House and More
2024 General Election
First. Play defense.
According to my calculations (made, out of necessity, before the September 30 financial reports were published. My wife and I will be away when that information is published). I project 214 Democratic seats, 204 Republican seats, and still have 17 toss ups.
My numbers differ from many pundits. The Cook Political Reports projected 203 Democrats, 206 Republicans, and 26 Toss ups.
I looked at the polls from 538, where there were polls, looked at the June 30 financial reports, considered the candidates, and shifted 10 seats from Toss up to Lean Democrat.. I also shifted two seats from Lean Republican to Toss up.
So, unlike pundits who get paid for their work, I projected 215 Democrats, 204 Republicans, and 16 toss ups. Gradually, I made a few more shifts and got to 214 D, 204 R, and 17 toss ups.
It will be harder getting a House majority of 218 if Democrats lose any of the seats listed below. Help keep these seats Democratic.
Six vulnerable Democratic seats
California 47. Dave Min
California 47 was Katie Porter’s seat. A stellar member of Congress in a swing district, Porter ran for the Senate this year, coming in third in the multi-party primary behind fellow Democrat and Member of Congress Adam Schiff and retired Major League baseball player for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Republican Steve Garvey.
Dave Min is a particularly appropriate replacement for Katie Porter. Like her, he taught at the University of California, Irvine. Like her, he specialized in financial issues and banking. Katie Porter had left Irvine to work for state Attorney General Kamala Harris monitoring California’s implementation of the state’s $9.5 billion share of a national $25 billion settlement of a lawsuit that had targeted banks’ unfair treatment of home mortgage borrowers. Dave Min had spent two years on the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission, three years as an associate at the WilmerHale law firm, two years as Counsel for Chuck Schumer and the Senate Joint Economic Committee, and three years at the Democratic-oriented policy shop Center for American Progress.
Dave Min had a clearly articulated interests in politics. In 2018, he ran for CA 45 and came in third behind Katie Porter. IN 2020, he ran for the state senate and won, defeating a Republican incumbent. In the Senate, he introduced legislation addressing violence, including bills to expand protections for survivors of domestic abuse as well as bills to prevent anti-Asian violence. He sought a study of harassment on California’s transit systems, proposed a reduction of gun shows and sales on state-owned property.
Dave Min’s opponent is Scott Baugh, a former chair of the county Republican Party. Baugh is a graduate of Liberty University. He opposes abortions without exception, opposes same sex marriage. Supports cutting taxes and school choice. He opposes the regulation of cryptocurrencies as well as other business regulations. He has been endorsed by the Club for Growth which gave Katie Porter a 4% rating.
Dave Min needs some help now. There has been one poll in September. Baugh led by 3 points. By June 30, Baugh had raised $2.9 million and had $2.3 million left on June 30. Dave Min had raised $2.3 million and had only $1.5 million left on June 30. DONATE to Dave Min. He can replace Katie Porter; Scott Baugh cannot.
Michigan 08 State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet is running against former Trump official Paul Junge to represent this district which is the inside of Michigan’s thumb. Dan Kildee is retiring after 47 years of public service. He started in politics, at age 18, when he was elected to the Flint school board.
When Kristen McDonald Rivet announced at the beginning of January that she was running for Congress at least one newspaper offered the headline that the Democrats got their candidate. The Michigan Midlander described her as “a lifelong Michigander, mother of six, and an advocate for children and working families.” She has served as Executive Director of the Michigan Head Start Association and was a staffer for the Michigan State School Superintendent. She became the Skillman Foundation’s Vice President for program and policy.
After that, Kristen McDonald Rivet went into electoral politics, getting herself elected to the Bay City Commission, to the Michigan House of Representatives and to the Michigan State Senate. Her most supportive constituencies have been parents and educators, union workers, and, with the Supreme Court attack on abortion, women.
Her opponent for the seat that Dan Kildee is retiring from is Paul Junge, is a graduate of University of Michigan. During the Trump administration, he worked at US Citizenship and Immigration Services on border issues. He has worked as a criminal prosecutor focused on domestic violence.
During the past two and a half weeks, he has been subject to critical news. He was exposed as having an Ashley Madison Account, a dating service he seems to have been using to meet married women. An October 3 story reported how, years ago, he had fought against a proposal for the safe disposal of harmful drugs in a California county. Will his website address these issues? At the moment I am writing, it is undergoing maintenance.
There are no polls. Junge had raised over $2 million but had only $300,000 left as of July 17. Kristen McDonald Rivet had raised $1.7 million. She had $800,000 on July 17. Outside spending included $1.2 million attacking Junge and less than $200,000 supporting Kristin McDonald Rivet. There was no outside spending on behalf of Junge and about $500,000 opposing Kristin McDonald Rivet. DONATE, The tide seems with her at the moment. See Len’s Political Note #617.
Pennsylvania 08. Matt Cartwright
Every year, Matt Cartwright faces an opponent who believes he or she can win because the district leans Republican. In 2024, Rob Bresnahan, who has been described as a venture capitalist and is the president of a construction and electrical company founded by his grandfather, thinks he is the man for the job. Bresnahan has a point. The district has changed. Matt Cartwright used to win by double digits. In 2020, he won by 4 points. In 2024, he won by 2 points.
Matt Cartwright grew up in Erie. His dad was a prosperous international businessman, formerly the CEO of GE Canada. Matt Cartwright went to prep school in Canada, to Hamilton College where he graduated with a Phi Beta Kappa key, and the University of Pennsylvania’s law school. He met a girl. She went to Temple University’s law school. Life took its course. They both joined her father’s law firm in Scranton, a firm that described itself as the nation’s “leading personal injury firm,” a firm where, even now, every partner is named Munley.
Not a local and a member of the family by marriage, Matt Cartwright faced a challenge to establish himself. So he went on television. He had a show answering legal questions through which he earned the trust of the people of Scranton and the surrounding area. By 2012, after redistricting, he was better known and better liked in the newly formed PA 17 than the long-time and very conservative Democratic incumbent Congressman. It seemed as if Matt Cartwright had been invited to run for the newly created congressional seat.
Maatt Cartwright was more progressive than the incumbent he defeated in the primary and may be a little more progressive than his constituents. He supported DREAMers. He has supported some gun safety efforts. He sought and found a middle ground regarding the LGBTQ community – opposing discrimination, but allowing clergy to decline to perform same sex marriages.
Matt Cartwright’s opponent Rob Bresnahan’s campaign website says not a word about his political views. He is marketed as a good neighbor. Local news will tell you he believes states should regulate abortion and, in Pennsylvania, he is opposed to abortion. We also can read about a little controversy because he violated Venmo’s terms of service which prohibits its use for purchasing firearms or ammunition. He purchased ammunition for an AR-15 via Venmo. As for immigration, Rob Bresnahan was clear on X. “Illegal immigration is a crime, and officials in Washington must treat it as such.” You can’t necessarily attribute a candidate’s views by looking at his donors, but one donor, a former candidate for governor, described immigrants as being like a “raccoon infestation.”
Keep Pennsylvania 08 in Matt Cartwright’s safe hands. There have been no recent polls. By June 30 Cartwright had raised $5.7. million to Bresnahan’s $2.6 million; On June 30 Cartwright had $4.5 million available. Bresnahan had $1.2 million. Keep Matt Cartwright in the lead. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #547
Jared Golden Maine 02
Jared Golden is a conservative Democrat in a Republican leaning district. Donald Trump carried the district in 2016 and in 2020, getting its electoral college vote.
Jared Golden has been a contrarian Democrat. He was one of three Democrats voting against Article II to impeach Trump in the first trial. He was one of two Democrats to oppose the American Rescue Plan. He was concerned about its cost. He is one of the nine Democrats who pressed for an immediate vote on the bipartisan infrastructure plan. Opposed to the elimination of the cap on the SALT tax deduction and to the failure to include prescription drug pricing reform, he was the only Democrat to vote against a version of Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act.
Jared Golden was also the only Democrat to oppose expanded background checks for gun purchases and one of only two Democrats to oppose other gun restriction measures. He was one of two Democrats to oppose student loan debt cancellation when that proposal was before Congress. He was one of a handful of Democrats to support ending vaccine mandates and ending the Covid emergency early. A former intern for Republican Senator Susan Collins, he has said he would never campaign against her.
That internship is an important part of Jared Golden’s story. His dad owned a golf course. Jared Golden preferred hanging out with the workers to meeting with the golfers. He went to a local state college, but quit school and joined the military. He had a bad war in Iraq and Afghanistan and ultimately came home with PTSD.
At home, he hung out and took low paying jobs. He was discovered like a prospective Hollywood star. A Bates College professor chatted with him in the pizza joint he was working at. The professor sent someone from the admissions office to see him. Jared Golden wound up as a student at Bates. Despite his bad personal experience, he provided a positive view of the military to these students. After graduation, he had experiences that ranged from some productive work in Iraq to his internship with Susan Collins. He ran for the state legislature – as a Democrat, honoring his dad’s love of John F. Kennedy. And he ran for Congress. He would not have won without Maine’s adoption of ranked voting as votes for two more left wing candidates were reallocated to him because of how they ranked him in order to get candidate over 50%.
This year he is running against former race car driver and state rep Austin Theriault. Theriault is another candidate who does not list his position on issues in his campaign website. Asked about his views on abortion in a debate with Jared Golden, he is quoted as having said: “Let’s get back to the issues that matter.” Both candidates insist they are party mavericks. In the debate, Theriault was proud of his endorsement by Trump. Theriault argued that Golden’s support of Joe Biden’s climate bill will fund wind energy which will hurt lobstermen. In a discussion of the mass shooting in Lewiston, Golden supported banning assault style weapons. Theriault countered with a proposal for a massive mental health investment.
Help Jared Golden stay in the House. There have been no polls of this race. We do know about money raised as of the June 30 deadline. Golden raised $4.8 million, Theriault raised $1.8 million. Keep Jared Golden in the lead. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #575.
Michigan 07. Former State Senator Curtis Hertel versus former State Senator Tom Barrett. This race is a tribute to term limits. Two men in their forties who, without term limits, might have stayed for years in the State Senate.
Curtis Hertel’s grandfather worked in his wife’s family café until he was in his late forties when he was able to become what he always wanted to be — a teacher. His three sons all became politicians. One ran the Michigan state fair and served on many authorities and boards. Another was an attorney and a state rep. Curtis Sr. became Speaker of the House and was public service commissioner.
Curtis Sr’s sons remained in politics. Kevin was a lobbyist for Blue Cross/Blue Shield, a state rep and a state senator. Curtis Jr was a state senator, skilled and effective while in the minority, he was able to help labor by ensuring that manufacture of electric vehicles remained in Michigan and to help education by achieving tax credit for Michigan public college graduates who remained in state. In 2023, termed out, he became Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s liaison on health services with the legislature, negotiating with the legislature about the health services budget on her behalf.
His Republican opponent, Tom Barrett, came to the State Senate after a career in the military and the National Guard, retiring in 2022. He defeated a Democrat to become state senator and was one of only eleven state senators to support Donald Trump by requesting an independent investigation of “credible allegations for misconduct” in the 2020 election. Asked in 2022, Barrett said the legitimacy of the 2020 election was “unknowable.”
Curtis Hertel Jr and Tom Barrett are competing for the seat Elissa Slotkin has held. Slotkin is running for the Senate seat formerly held by Debbie Stabenow. There are no recent polls of the Congressional race.. Curtis Hertel Jr is leading in the money race. As of July 17, he had $3.3 million to Barrett’s $1.2 million. If you choose to DONATE to Curtis Hertel, you would help fund him finish the race strongly.
New Mexico 02. Gabe Vasquez
If the past is prologue, Gabe Vasquez has to be on any list of endangered Democratic incumbents. He was elected in 2022 by 1,350 votes – the closest Democratic win. He defeated an incumbent Republican, Yvette Herrell, who, once before, defeated an incumbent Democrat who had previously defeated her. In 2024, Yvette Herrell would like to do it again — defeat a Democrat who had defeated her. This is certainly a swing district.
Gabe Vasquez is a former Las Cruces city counselor. In that role, he demonstrated what he had become – a conservationist for ordinary people. A former Deputy Director of the New Mexico chapter of the Wilderness Society, he became Deputy Director for Federal Lands for the Western Conservation Foundation. On the City Council, he sought to create a Civilian Conservation Corps to “address a severe youth unemployment problem, address racial and social inequities, and help our nation reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change.”
He has helped establish the Outdoor Equity Fund to award grants toward ensuring that “access to the outdoors should be low-cost and ubiquitous for all New Mexicans.” His version of conservation is not only for the elite. His small business oriented ambition is best expressed by the Outdoor Equity Fund’s Incubator and Accelerator … [which awarded] grants to support “early stage outdoor businesses…..”
With Yvette Herrell, New Mexico’s second congressional district and the United States would get the return of a Congresswoman endorsed by anti-abortion groups, who had voted against gun safety proposals in Congress and received funds from the gun lobby, She has even been funded by supporters of white nationalist theories though she is a Native American.
Here are a few more Democratic seats in jeopardy
Mary Peltola AK AL There were two Republican funded polls in September. One had Peltola ahead by a point; another her behind by 4 points DONATE
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA 03 A Democratically funded poll in October had her even with an extremist Republican candidate DONATE
Don Davis NC 01 Neutrally funded polls in September had him ahead by 8 points DONATE
Emilia Sykes OH 13 No recent polls DONATE
Susan Wild PA 07 Neutrally funded poll in October had her up by 6 points DONATE
Yadira Cordero CO 08 Neutrally funded polls, one in September had her +3, one in October had her even with the Republican challenger. DONATE
Don’t forget the Senate
The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents
Jon Tester, seeking his fourth term representing Montana is probably the most vulnerable Democrat. DONATE
Sherrod Brown, seeking his fourth term representing Ohio is probably the second most vulnerable Democrat. DONATE
The most promising Democratic challengers
Nebraska Union Leader Dan Osborn could flip Incumbent Debbie Fischer’s seat. Fischer has been nondescript. DONATE to Osborn
Texas Congressman Colin Allred could flip Incumbent Ted Cruz’s seat. Cruz is generally considered the least popular man in the Senate. DONATE TO Allred
Florica former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could flip Incumbent Rick Scott’s seat. With a net worth in the range of $250 million, Scott demonstrated his disregard for services that ordinary people rely on when he proposed that social security and Medicare be subject to votes of approval every five years. DONATE to Mucarsel-Powell
WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO WIN
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
As we look toward November, we can see that the odds of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz winning the election have become better. You can strengthen those odds. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the number of small donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ.
Next up: Vulnerable Republicans. This is where the Democrats can ensure they will win the House. See Political Note #679.
