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Apil 8th, 2024 Len’s Political Note #634 Dave Min California 47
2024 General Election
Dave Min is running for what was Katie Porter’s seat. He has had her endorsement and, with the help of that endorsement, came in second in California’s top two non-partisan primary. Former Republican County Party chief Scott Baugh got 33% of the vote. Of the two top Democrats, State Senator Dave Min got 25% of the vote and Attorney and activist Joanna Weiss got 19%.
This race was intense. Not so much for the Republican. He had raised $2 million. On February 14, three weeks before the non-partisan primary, he still had $1.7 million. It was different for the two Democrats. On February 14, Joanna Weiss, who had raised more than $2.1 million, had $600,000 for the next three weeks. Dave Min had a little more than $200,000 left from the $1.7 million he had raised for the campaign.
Dave Min will need to do some serious fund raising to compete with Scott Baugh to win in November. This Pacific coast district South of Anaheim begins in the north with Seal Beach and Huntington Beach, juts inland to Irvine, and continues south past Mission Viejo, but does not extend as far south as San Clemente. The district is 50% white, 25% Asian, and 17% Hispanic. And it is prosperous. The median household income is $118,000.
Dave Min was born in Providence, RI five years after his parents had immigrated to the United States from Korea. Doctoral students at Brown, the family soon moved to the West Coast. Dave Min was raised in Palo Alto. He returned east for college and graduate school – getting a BA and an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania and a JD from Harvard.
Dave Min describes his approach to his career and to politics as taking the long view. While in the California State Senate, he completed his official biography with the anonymous Greek saying: A civilization is great when its elders plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in. In one sense, his career is a slow, steady preparation for national leadership.
From Harvard, he went to Washington DC. He spent two years on the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission, three years as an associate at the WilmerHale law firm, two years as Counsel for the Senate Joint Economic Committee, and three years at the Democratic-oriented policy shop Center for American Progress. Having become familiar with Washington, in 2012, he returned to California to become an Assistant Professor at the University of California, Irvine law school specializing in banking, capital markets, and real estate financing.
Katie Porter had been teaching at Irving since 2005. She became a full professor at Irvine’s Law School in 2011, but she was getting ready to leave. In March, 2012, she was appointed by the State Attorney General, Kamala Harris, to monitor California’s implementation of the state’s $9.5 billion share of a national $25 billion settlement. The lawsuit had targeted banks’ unfair treatment of home mortgage borrowers. A mentee of Elizabeth Warren, she was the right person to oversee how banks addressed and fixed their bad real estate behavior.
At the law school, Dave Min, specializing in the same fields as Katie Porter, was, in a sense, taking her place at the Law School. In 2018, she ran for Congress and won. In 2024, of course, she ran for the Senate, but came in third in the non-partisan primary. Dave Min is running for the Congressional seat she vacated. Having come in second in the non-partisan primary, he is, in effect, the Democratic nominee.
Before he ran for national office, Dave Min ran for the California Senate. The California State Senate has 40 members. The state has 52 Congressional representatives. California State Senate districts are larger and, because of that, at least as complicated, as Congressional districts. Elected to office in 2020, Dave Min was not quite as deliberate as the aphorism he quoted would make you expect. He introduced legislation related to violence, including bills to expand protections for survivors of domestic abuse as well as bills to prevent anti-Asian violence. He sought a study of harassment on California’s transit systems, proposed a reduction of gun shows and sales on state-owned property, an end to oil drilling offshore from Orange County, and making abortion rights a part of California’s constitution. The DCCC reports that twenty-eight of his bills became law.
In as much of a hurry as Dave Min might actually be, his driving scandal had nothing to do with speeding. He was arrested for “driving under the influence.” The next day, he wrote on Facebook that he was deeply sorry, that his decision to drive was irresponsible and a personal failure. He was not, however, abandoning his campaign for Congress.
Dave Min can make his case against Scott Baugh on policy and personal grounds. Baugh, a graduate and devotee of Liberty University, has been clear on culture war issues. He opposes abortions without exception. He opposes same sex marriage. His campaign website does not tell us that. His website does not provide either a personal history or a list of issues he positions himself on.
The Club for Growth, which has endorsed him, does have something to say about the issues Baugh favors. The Club describes him as a strong constitutional conservative who champions cutting taxes, opposes the regulation of cryptocurrencies, and supports school choice. They are excited about Scott Baugh being in a position to flip this Democratic seat. The Club for Growth had given Katie Porter a 4% rating.
Where most candidates have on the campaign website a personal history of the candidate and issues statements, Scott Baugh has an eleven point list of personal and family connections. One point notes his law firm; another his family in Huntington Beach. Three points note he was an Assemblyman, he was the Assembly’s Republican leader for a year, and he was the chair of the County Republican party for eleven.
The remaining six points note organizations he was involved in. To learn about Scott Baugh, you have to learn about the organizations. He was
- A Board Member of the George T. Pfleger Foundation which encourages fishing and supports the fishing industry.
- A Founding Board Member of Angel Force USA – an organization that would help prevent suicide by military veterans through music and support of veterans by other veterans. They are trying end what they call suisilence.
- A Founding Trustee of the Pacifica Christian High School of Orange County which includes as part of its mission helping their students achieve “the freedom to find their place in God’s created world.”
- The Chairman of the Orange County Gang Reduction Intervention Partnership which arranges monthly meetings with groups of at-risk students and with their teachers and works with law enforcement to “prevent targeted at-risk minors from joining criminal street gangs…”. Their leadership includes District Attorneys and sheriffs.
- The Founding Chairman of the OC Marathon Foundation that encourages children to keep fit and run in an annual marathon. An associate organization, the John Wayne Cancer Foundation, encourages children to fight cancer through “courage, strength, and grit.”
- The Founding Chairman of the Institute for Fair Elections which is devoted to ensuring effective management of elections and cleaning the voting lists of people who are not residents.
Scott Baugh’s intentions regarding Fair Elections may resonate with a dozen Republicans who were arrested for changing the registration of 600 voters to Republican without their consent as well as with his own arrest in which he was charged with 20 electkion-related offenses of which four were felonies. He was charged with manipulating election results, violating campaign finance laws, and persuading another person to commit perjury. In the end, Scott Baugh admitted to and was convicted of committing nine election-related misdemeanors.
DONATE TO DAVE MIN. Keep California 47 a Democratic seat. Keep Scott Baugh out of Congress. This will be a tight race. Every dollar counts.
Below are California candidates, with incumbents and insurgents listed in order of who, in my opinion, need resources the most. If all things remained the same, which they will not, Democrats are four seats away from controlling the House of Representatives in 2024. If California can protect its vulnerable incumbents and flip vulnerable Republicans, that state alone can create a Democratic House of Representatives.
Incumbents – Protect them
CA 47 State Senator and former Law Professor Dave Min. He is not an incumbent, but he is the Democratic candidate for the seat that Democrat Katie Porter held. Having come in second in the primary, Dave Min will have a considerable financial disadvantage against the Republican Scott Baugh. Three weeks before the March 5 primary, he had $200,000. He had to spend most of that to fend off a Democratic challenger. At the same time, Scott Baugh had $1.7 million and did not have a serious Republican opponent. Dave Min is starting from scratch. Daily Kos, taking into account the vacancy, saw the seat as the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat in the country. In Mid-February, a Republican funded poll showed Min trailing 22-27. Consider this poll outdated and irrelevant, but do consider this a very tight race. DONATE TO DAVE MIN
Incumbent Jim Costa CA 21 is #14 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. CA 21 runs south from Fresno to Visalia and Exeter. In Congress, he has been a Blue Dog Democrat – a supporter of the Keystone Pipeline, for instance. He is a supporter of other infrastructure – high speed rail in California. On February 14, Jim Costa had a modest $800,000, while his Republican opponent had less — $100,000. DONATE TO JIM COSTA. See Len’s Political Note #566
CA 49. Incumbent Mike Levin CA is #25 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on both Len’s List and Daily Kos’s List. On March 5th, he won 51% of the vote, which is encouraging. Businessman Mike Gunderson will be his opponent in November to represent this coastal district that is south of Mission Viejo and includes San Blemente and Oceanside. On February 14, Mike Levin had $1.2 million; his opponent had $200,000. To keep the incumbent Democrat ahead in the money race, DONATE TO MIKE LEVIN. See Len’s Political Note #591
Incumbent Josh Harder CA 09 could be vulnerable to Republican Kevin Lincoln, Mayor of Stockbridge, the big city in the center of the district. Lincoln is a religious leader and a former Marine. Josh Harder has a big financial lead $2.3 Million vs $200,000. He would describe himself as fiscally conservative and socially progressive and eager to work across party lines. Keep Josh Harder well ahead. Make certain this seat does not become vulnerable. DONATE TO JOSH HARDER
Insurgents – Help them flip Republican seats. Remember Democrats are four seats away from winning the House of Representatives. Democrats could net a gain of 4 seats, maybe more.
Adam Gray in CA 13 is running against Republican incumbent John Duarte, who is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #1 on Daily Kos’s List. This inland district is south of Stockton and west of Fresno. After working for several state legsilators, Adam Gray was elected to the Assembly and proved to be very effective in bringing resources to his district. With $500,000 in the bank on February 14, Adam Gray has to catch up with the incumbent who had $1.5 Million. DONATE TO ADAM GRAY. See Len’s Political Note #586
Rudy Salas CA 22 is running against Incumbent Republican David Valadao who is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #3 on Daily Kos’s List. The district includes Bakersfield and rural areas north and northwest of that city. Rudy Salas was Bakersfield’s first Latino city councilor. The incumbent had $1.3 Million on February 14 to Rudy Salas’s $125,000. Rudy Salas has some catching up to do. DONATE TO RUDY SALAS. See Len’s Political Note #602
CA 45. Attorney Derek Tran is running against Republican Michelle Steel who is tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s list of the most vulnerable Republican Members of Congress. The district surrounds (leaving an escape route to the east) but does not include, Anaheim. The son of Vietnamese immigrants, he has been a consumer rights attorney. He has a real challenge ahead of him. On February 14, incumbent had $2.9 million to contest this race; Derek Tran had $70,000. DONATE TO DEREK TRAN.
CA 27. George Whitesides will be the Democratic nominee against Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia, who is #19 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans, tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. Garcia’s good fortune may have run out. In this race he must run against former CEO George Whitesides to represent this district north of Los Angeles and east of Santa Barbara. On February 14, George Whitesides was winning the money race — $2.5 Million to $1.6 Million. To help him stay in the lead, DONATE TO GEORGE WHITESIDES. See Len’s Political Note #608
CA 41Will Rollins is running against Incumbent Republican Ken Calvert who is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and tied at #19 on Daily Kos’s List. The district is east and slightly south of Los Angeles extending to Palm Springs. Will Rollins is a gay man and a former federal prosecutor. This promises to be a high spending race. The incumbent had $2 .3 Million on February 14, Will Rollins had $2.4 Million. Join the crowd. DONATE TO WILL ROLLINS. See Len’s Political Note #588
CA 03 National Security Figure Jessica Morse will be the Democratic nominee for CA 03 against Republican first term incumbent Kevin Kiley who is #24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans and is tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. The district is west of Reno, NV and runs along the California Nevada border. Jessica Morse has been in charge of organizing California’s defense against wildfires. The incumbent is a young, smart, right winger. On February 14, Kiley had $2 Million available; Jessica Morse had a $660,000. If she can ramp up her fund raising, she could flip this seat. Help Jessica Morse. DONATE TO JESSICA MORSE. See Len’s Political Note #612
CA 40 Joe Kerr, a leader in the firefighters’ union has been accused of being too conservative. His opponent, Incumbent Young Kim works hard to appear to be a moderate, though the gun lobby rates her at 100% and her position on abortion is unclear. The district runs from south of Pomona to Mission Viejo. Joe Kerr spent his money on the non-partisan primary and had only $80,000 on February 14. Young Kim had $2.5 million. DONATE TO JOE KERR See Len’s Political Note #629
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As we look toward November, 2024, Help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. National head to head polls between March 24 and March 26 include one poll that is even between Biden and Trump, 5 polls with Trump leading by 1 to 4 points and 2 polls with Biden leading by 1 to 3 points. Every donation, large or small, makes a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But large numbers of small donations are a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. See Len’s Political Note #605
#16 in the Stephenson County, IL list of Biden accomplishments: Held Russia and Vladimir Putin accountable for the invasion of Ukraine.
