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December 28th, 2023 Len’s Political Note #610 Chris Pappas. New Hampshire 01
2024 General Election
Every year Chris Pappas is declared vulnerable. He was first elected in 2018 as part of the Democratic wave. At that time, there was no reason to think that anyone elected to New Hampshire’s First Congressional district would stay for long. Look at its history for the past two decades.
2002: Jeb Bradley (R ) replaced the incumbent John Sununu (R ) and was elected by 20 points.
2004: Jeb Bradley (R ) was re-elected by 27 points.
2006 Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Jeb Bradley by 3 points
2008: Carol Shea-Porter (D) won again, defeating Jeb Bradley by 6 points.
2010: Frank Giunta (R ) defeated Carol Shea-Porter by 12 points
2012: Carol Shea-Porter (D) won the seat back, defeating Frank Giunta by 4 points
2014: Frank Giunta (R ) won the seat back, defeating Carol Shea-Porter by 4 points
2016: Carol Shea-Porter (D) won the seat back, defeating Frank Giunta by a point.
2018 Shea-Porter and Giunta had had enough. Chris Pappas (D) defeated Eddie Edwards by 8 points.
2020: Chris Pappas (D) defeated Matt Mowers by 5 points.
2022: Chris Pappas (D) defeated Karoline Leavitt by 8 points.
2024: We will see if Chris Pappas has finally gained a handle on this seat if not a lock. Even if he has a lock, it will be a vulnerable one. Unless New Hampshire changes, NH 01 will remain a swing district.
Chris Pappas is local. He was born in New Hampshire’s largest city – Manchester which has a little more than 100,000 people. His family owns and operates a New Hampshire institution.
Chris Pappas’s great grandfather Arthur Pappas and a cousin opened an ice cream shop in 1917 which they called the Puritan. Two years later, in the back of the ice cream shop, they opened a restaurant they called the Backroom. Today, in the Puritan Backroom, you can get a lamb kabob for $28 or a Greek Macaroni and Cheese dinner for $18. The price of the lobster pie varies according to the market cost for lobster.
The Pappas’s added a function room in 1949. The function room is a great place for a wedding reception or a Democratic Party fund raiser. The restaurant claims that Charlie Pappas, Chris Pappas’s grandfather invented the chicken tender in 1974. Kentucky Fried Chicken might disagree. They introduced chicken strips in 1974 and those strips may have resembled offerings from restaurants in the south. Wikipedia gives the nod to the Puritan Backroom.
Chris Pappas graduated from Manchester High School in 1998 and went to Harvard. He wrote for the Crimson and returned home intending to be a Democratic politician. In high school, he had volunteered for Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign for governor. In 2002, the year he graduated from college, he was elected to the 400 seat New Hampshire House of Representatives. He served two terms, then was elected in 2006 as Treasurer of Hillsborough County – New Hampshire’s largest county.
Chris Pappas was re-elected as County Treasurer in 2008, but lost in 2010 to Robert Burns, a devoted and persistent New Hampshire Republican politician. Pretty persistent himself, Chris Pappas ran for the Executive Council. New Hampshire’s Executive Council can veto a pardon, any state contract worth more than $10,000, and various political appointments. For example, Chris Pappas voted against vetoing funding for substance abuse treatments as well as prevention and support services during recovery while on the Executive Council.
In 2018, Chris Pappas announced a run for Congress. One personal issue was a little more noticeable than in his past runs. Chris Pappas is gay. He was attacked in that election as being “weak,” as not having a “backbone.” He took those attacks as being homophobic.
There were other issues in the campaign. Chris Pappas accepted an endorsement from a business-oriented organization supported by the Kochs. The attacks from the left as a consequence probably helped him in the 2018 general election campaign. He was elected as a moderate Democrat – fiscally conservative, progressive on social issues.
One way he showed his moderation in Congress, was to oppose quickly developing proposals. In 2020, he opposed a plan to remove cannabis from the controlled substance list – arguing the change was being rushed through. In 2022, he opposed Joe Biden’s proposal to forgive college loans on the grounds that it did not include long term plans for reducing the high cost of a college education.
The world has changed since Chris Pappas was first elected to Congress. He is married to a man now. Chris Pappas has become something of an activist on behalf of the LGBTQ community – concerned that the Supreme Court might take away rights. Some things don’t change. Funding local projects is still a big deal. Along with the Senators from New Hampshire and the other Member of Congress, the New Hampshire delegation – all Democrats — began December by announcing law enforcement related federal grants to the Concord School District, the University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire’s Justice Department, and to the police departments of three small towns.
This could be a tough general election for Chris Pappas. His probable opponent is Russell Prescott. Trained as an engineer, he holds patents for removing arsenic and radon from water and currently owns what was his father’s business as a wholesale distributor and manufacturer of water treatment systems. Prescott has been a state Senator and served two terms on the Executive Council.
Prescott has been attacking Chris Pappas for supporting Members of Congress who Prescott calls anti-Israel. Prescott has his own positions to defend. In the state legislature, he voted against raising the minimum wage, against Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, and against women’s reproductive freedom.
Russell Prescott has been raising money. At the end of the third quarter of 2023, he had $440,000 available for his campaign, more than most challengers. Chris Pappas had a bit less than $900,000 available at the same time – a little less than a typical incumbent facing a serious challenge.
Chris Pappas could use your help. DONATE TO CHRIS PAPPAS.
New York 03. Special Election on February 13th.
Tom Suozzi, former Congressman from this District is running County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, a former Ethiopian refugee in Israel in the special election called to replace outsted Congressman George Santos. An experienced, moderate Democrat against a newcomer Republican with a great story, this is the most important election of 2024 before November. It is a bellwether for who will control the next congress and will affect the slim Republican majority for this congress. October 1 financial data does not mean anything. Neither had announced their candidacy; neither had reported raising money. Fund raising is important now. DONATE TO TOM SUOZZI. In a Republican funded poll at the end of November, Tom Suozzi led by 4 points. See Len’s Political Note #607.
New Hampshire has an open Republican Governor’s seat up for election in 2024
Two Republicans have announced: former US Senator Kelly Ayotte and former State Senate President Chuck Morse. Two Democrats have announced: Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The primary is not until September, 2024. Because the primary is so late, it makes some sense to support the likely Democratic primary winner now. I suggest you DONATE TO JOYCE CRAIG.
Support Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
As we look toward November, 2024, Help sustain the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaign. Every donation, large or small, does make a difference. Larger donations mean more money for the campaign. But many in the media count the total number of donations as a measure of enthusiasm for the candidate. Make a small donation if you cannot afford a large one. DONATE TO JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/web-bfp-december-2023
The Northeast has a bunch of Vulnerable Republicans to target. Should New York redistrict, the Republicans in that state could be even more vulnerable. Fewer Democrats are vulnerable, but there are enough to make the entire northeast a battleground.
Three Democrats you should support now; Their financial race is close.
Mike Lawler NY 17 is #4 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. He is #2 on Daily Kos’s List. Former Congressman Mondaire Jones will be the Democratic nominee. Mike Lawler entered October with $2 Million; Mondaire Jones began with $850,000. DONATE TO MONDAIRE JONES. If he catches up, he wins. See: Len’s Political Note #579
Brandon Williams NY 22 is #6 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. He is tied for #4 on Daily Kos’s List. Recent confrontations with former staffers have only made him more vulnerable. Previous candidate Sara Klee Hood was the first Democrat to announce for the nomination and is a likely, but not certain nominee. Sara Klee Hood had $250,000 on October 1; the incumbent had a relatively low $850,000. If Sara Klee Hood catches up to Williams, she wins. DONATE TO SARA KLEE HOOD. See Len’s Political Note #557
Mike Molinaro NY 19 is #9 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. He is tied at #7 on Daily Kos’s List. Josh Riley will be the Democratic nominee. He is closing in financially with $1 Million on October 1. The incumbent was leading with $1.3 Million. Josh Riley can flip this seat if he raises more than the incumbent. DONATE TO JOSH RILEY See Len’s Political Note #580
Four Democrats you should support now so they can dominate their Republican opponent.
Inc Democrat Jahana Hayes CT 05 is #3 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democrats in the House; she is tied for #11 on Daily Kos’s List. She will be opposed by her 2022 opponent former State Senator George Logan who she defeated in a very close race. Jahana Hayes had $900,000 on October 1; Logan had a negligible amount. DONATE TO JAHANA HAYES. Keep her far enough ahead of Logan so a competitive campaign seems implausible. See Len’s Political Note #541
Inc Democrat Pat Ryan NY is #5 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democrats in the House. He is #8 on Daily Kos’s List. Two Republicans have announced their candidacies. Neither had any money on October 1. Pat Ryan had $1.6 Million. DONATE TO PAT RYAN. More will allow him to minimize support for those opponents. See Len’s Political Note #545
Inc Democrat Susan Wild PA 07 is #6 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democrats in the House. She is #5 on Daily Kos’s List. Of possible Republican opponents, only State Rep Ryan McKenzie had more than $100,000 on October 1. Susan Wild had $1.1 Million. DONATE TO SUSAN WILD Keep her far enough ahead to discourage Republican donors and the Republican candidates. See Len’s Political Note #546
Inc Democrat Matt Cartwright PA 08 Is #7 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democrats in the House. He is tied for #3 on Daily Kos’s List. Businessman Rob Bresnahan is the only Republican to announce and he reported having raised no money. Matt Cartwright is prepared and had $1.4 million on October 1. DONATE TO MATT CARTWRIGHT. Keep him far enough ahead to discourage Republican donors and the Republican candidate. See Len’s Political Note #547
Five Democrats who could use your support
Tom Kean Jr NJ 07 is #14 on both Len’s List and Daily Kos’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. Sue Altman is the probable Democratic nominee. On October 1, she had $350,000 available for her campaign. The incumbent had nearly $1.8 million. DONATE TO SUE ALTMAN. Help her catch up to the incumbent. See Len’s Political Note #578.
Anthony D’Esposito NY 04 is #15 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House and tied for #4 in Daily Kos’s List. Laura Gillen is the probable Democratic nominee. On October 1 she had $400,000 available for her campaign. The incumbent had $1.1Million. DONATE TO LAURA GILLEN She does not have that far to go to catch up. See Len’s Political Note #596
Inc Democrat Jared Golden ME 02 is #17 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Democrats in the House; #10 on Daily Kos’s List. His probable opponent is State Rep Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver. On October 1, Jared Golden had just under $900,000 available; his probable opponent had less than $50,000. DONATE TO JARED GOLDEN Discourage his probable opponent and his opponent’s supporters. See: Len’s Political Note #575
Inc Chris Pappas NH 02 is #20 on Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democrats. He is not on Len’s List. Chris Pappas had $900,000 available for his campaign on October 1. His opponent had #450,000. DONATE TO CHRIS PAPPAS. To win, he needs to stay ahead of the game.
Scott Perry PA 10 is #23 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans in the House. 2022 candidate Shamaine Daniels was the first to announce and I wrote a note on her behalf. Her fund raising has been insufficient. The incumbent has not raised much, though – less than $550,000. DONATE TO SHAMAINE DANIELS. Few Republican Congressmen are more worthy of defeat or indictment as part of the Trump conspiracy than Scott Perry. See Len’s Political Note #559
Some Democrats appear to be in good shape
Chris Deluzio PA 17 is, according to Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democrats, #19 among vulnerable House Democrats. According to Len’s List, he is #34. His probable opponent is State Rep Robert Mercuri, who has been busy trying to hide his past right wing and anti-abortion past. On October 1, Chris Deluzio had $700,000, Mercuri had $150,000. DONATE TO CHRIS DELUZIO. Keep him far enough ahead to discourage Mercuri and his potential donors.
Seth Magaziner RI 02 is #27 on Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. He is #9 on Len’s List. Seth Magaziner has $700,000 available on October 1. No Republican has announced or, as of October 1, had raised money for a campaign, DONATE TO SETH MAGAZINER. Discourage Republican challengers.
An important Senate race in the Northeast
Inc Bob Casey of Pennsylvania is generally considered to be among the vulnerable Democratic Senators. Democrats need to win every one of those races. On October 1, Bob Casey had more than $7 million. His probable opponent, wealthy businessman David McCormick can donate millions from his personal funds. He reported more than $7 thousand. October polls by Franklin & Marshall, Emerson College, and Quinnipiac University showed Bob Casey leading by 7,8, and 6 points respectively. DONATE TO BOB CASEY. Discourage his opponent who is getting flack for living in Connecticut. See Len’s Political Note #581
