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November 26th , 2023 Political Note #602 Rudy Salas California 22
2024 General Election
On December 7, 2022, a month after he lost to the incumbent, David Valadao, Rudy Salas filed paperwork to run again in 2024 for California’s 22nd Congressional District. Now we are approaching December, 2023.
Rudy Salas waited to announce his campaign in July, 2023. He had gathered his energy and found his focus: “David Valadao’s votes for higher prescription drug prices and healthcare costs are an attack on our wallets [as are] Valadao’s support for criminalizing abortion, including for the victims of rape [which] is an attack on our personal freedoms. Central Valley families aren’t going to stand for it anymore.”
Rudy Salas is from Bakersfield, a city of 400,000 people which more than doubled its population between 1990 and 2020. This is farm country, but not just farm country. The three largest private employers in Bakersfield are the Giumarra Companies which packages and sells produce, the Grimmway Farms – the largest grower, producer, and shipper of carrots in the world, and Bolthouse Farms which grows products and bottles and markets health food drinks and dressings. Bakersfield has been changing as well as growing. Between 2010 and 2020, the white population dropped from 57% of the city to 39%. By 2020, Latinos, without regard to race, were nearly a majority – 45.5%.
Elected in 2010, Rudy Salas was Bakersfield’s first Latino city counselor. He had graduated from UCLA in 2000 and was the district director for a State Senator for six years. In 2012, he was elected to the state Senate. Rudy Salas describes his career in the state legislature as focused on bringing results back to his district.
Rudy Salas is running again against David Valadao. Valadao is #7 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbent Members of Congress. If Rudy Salas were elected to Congress, he would be the kind of Congressman he was in the state legislature.
Rudy Salas points out results he was responsible for – in whole or in part: protective equipment sent to the Central Valley during the pandemic, a $50 million post-pandemic investment he directed toward local nursing homes, an emergency response center, a cooling center, funds for Bakersfield College and for clean water. He is particularly proud his work on health care, his successful effort prior to the pandemic that ensured that the Kern county hospital remained open. He has also been a favorite of police organizations and was named legislator of the year by California’s police chief’s organization and by the state’s 911 dispatcher organization.
In his valedictory to the Assembly, he stressed his successes. He had authored 78 bills that were signed into law. He had brought over $353 million in direct funding to the district. His office had worked on more than 10,000 constituent cases. He added: “We passed new laws that protect veterans from housing discrimination, increase health care access in the Central Valley, safeguarded clean drinking water, and created the first ever Valley Fever Institute in the Central Valley for California. With direct funding in the State Budget local colleges built new buildings, hospital expanded cancer centers, and the community improved its water infrastructure, increased public safety, and helped families put food on the table.
Someone might ask for a broader approach to policy, but, in this low income area, Rudy Salas’s policy orientation provides public support to people in need of the services that government can provide. These days, a Republican might call that socialism. Most Americans would say Rudy Salas was serving his constituents.
The incumbent Republican, David Valadao was first elected to Congress in 2012. He has been helped by low turnout in the district. Consider the numbers. In some congressional districts, in a presidential year with a tough Congressional contest, as many as 400,000 people might vote. In 2012, a Presidential year, Valadao won by 18,000 votes in a contest in which 116,000 people voted.
David Valadao won by roughly the same number of votes in 2014. Only 80,000 people voted that year. In 2016, a Presidential year, shockingly, only 70,000 people voted. David Valadao continued winning by about 18,000 votes.
Some of Valadao’s races have been closer. In 2018, a strong mid-term, non-Presidential year, more than. 110,000 people voted. David Valadao defeated TJ Cox by less than 1,000 votes. Cox ran against David Valadao again in 2020 a presidential election year. 170,000 turned out to vote (not the 400,000 that a different district might attract to the voting booths, but a much better number than the past). David Valadao won again – this time by 1,500 votes.
In 2022, 10 years after David Valadao was first elected, Assemblyman Rudy Salas was David Valadao’s opponent. Just over 100,000 people voted. David Valadao was elected by 3,132 votes.
David Valadao is the son of Portuguese immigrants from the Cape Verde Islands. His father and uncle ran what appeared to be a successful dairy farm until it failed. Lawsuits claimed they had defaulted on $9 million in loans. In 2018, after agreeing to pay former employees who sued because they had not been paid minimum wage or overtime, the Dairy avoided making the payments by declaring bankruptcy. The Dairy’s leadership claimed their failure was due to excessive government regulation.
While the business was failing, David Valadao was ensconced in the state assembly and then in Congress. He was elected to congress in 2012.
In 2022, David Valadao came pretty close to not making the runoff in the multiparty primary. He had attracted a couple of Republicans who wanted to replace him because he was one of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. In the non-partisan primary, Rudy Salas led with 45.4% of the vote. He was followed by three Republicans: David Valadao 25.6%, Chris Mathys 23.1%, Adam Madeiros 5.9%. Had Valadao faced only one Republican opponent, he might not have made the run off at all.
If Rudy Salas is to win this election, he will need to gain on David Valadao in the financial race. As of October 1, Valadao had $1.2 million available for the rest of the campaign. Rudy Salas had $150,000. They will both get plenty of outside support for what everyone sees as a close race. This is a Democratic leaning district. All that is needed to flip the seat is a vigorous campaign from Rudy Salas and sufficient resources to support such a campaign. Help Rudy Salas win.
House races in the Northwest and the Pacific
CA 13 Adam Gray is running against Incumbent John Duarte, who is #2 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and #1 on Daily Kos’s List. In the financial race, though, Adam Gray was trailing as of October 1 $200,000 to $1.2 Million. Provide Adam Gray with some resources. See Len’s Political Note #586
WA 03 Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is #4 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and #2 on Daily Kos’s list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. On October 1, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had $1.6 Million available for her campaign. Her previous opponent, right wing extremist Joe Kent had $400,000. Keep Marie Gluesenkemp Perez in the lead in the financial race. See Len’s Political Note #543
OR 06 Incumbent Andrea Salinas OR 06 is #6 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s list. As of October 1, Andrea Salinas has $750,000 available for her campaign. Her probable opponent, though, had less than $50,000. Give Andrea Salinas a boost in her effort to stay well ahead of opponents. See Len’s Political Note #548
OR 05 has three Democrats running against Republican Incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who is #12 on Len’s List and #6 on Daily Kos’s List. The incumbent had $1.3 Million available on October 1. Of the Democrats, State Rep Janelle Bynum had $200,000, 2022 candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner had $150,000, and Metro Council President Lynn Peterson had $50,000. Pick a candidate now. Wait until someone appears to be the probable winner. Or find out who the Democratic nominee is after the May 21 primary.
MT 01 Former candidate Monica Tranel is running against Incumbent Ryan Zinke, fired by Trump for corruption and winner with only 49.7% of the vote in 2022, and #13 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans. Zinke is #29 on Daily Kos’s List. The incumbent had $1.6 Million on October 1; Monica Tranel had a respectable $600,000. Help her win this race. She can.
CA 21 Incumbent Jim Costa is #14 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. As of October 1, Jim Costa had $650,000 available for campaigning; his onlhy opponent to date, Businessman Michael Maher had $150,000. Help Jim Costa keep that lead. See Len’s Political Note #566
CA 41 Will Rollins is running against Ken Calvert who is #17 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republican incumbents and tied at #19 on Daily Kos’s List. This is a competitive race, financially as well as politically. The incumbent had $2 Million available on October 1; Will Rollins had $1.5 Million. With resources Will Rollins can flip the seat. Help him do it. See Len’s Political Note #588
CA 27 George Whitesides will be the Democratic nominee against Mike Garcia, who is #19 on Len’s List of Vulnerable Republicans. Garcia’s good fortune may have run out in running against former CEO Georg Whitesides. On October 1, George Whitesides had a slight lead in the money race — $1.7 Million to $1.6 Million. The other Democrat reported no funds at all so the entire focus is on the run off election. Help George Whitesides win this.
CA 03. National Security Figure Jessica Morse will be the Democratic nominee against Republican first term incumbent Kevin Kiley who is #24 on Len’s List of vulnerable Republicans and tied for #7 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1 Kiley had $1.5 Million available; Jessica Morse had a respectable $500,000. If she can ramp up her fund raising, she can flip this seat. Help Jessica Morse.
CA 49 Incumbent Mike Levin is #25 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and #25 on Daily Kos’s List. Republicans see an opportunity here and are putting money into this race. Mike Levin had $1 Million available on October 1. Two of his opponents had $900,000 and $800,000 respectively. He will need money to keep his seat in what promises to be a big money race. Help Mike Levin. See Len’s Political Note #591
WA 08 Incumbent Kim Schrier is #32 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and tied for #22 on Daily Kos’s List. She has $1.8 Million available on October 1. Her opponents had very little in the way of funds. If she can raise enough early to intimidate the opposition, she can slide home. Help Kim Schier now.
AK AL Incumbent Mary Peltola is #35 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List and is #18 on Daily Kos’s List. On October 1, Mary Peltola had a substantial lead in the financial race with $1 Million. Her previous opponent had only $200,000. The Lt. Governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, however, had not entered the race. The addition of Dahlstrom and the complexities of Alaska’s system of ranked voting for the preliminary four leading candidates makes the whole process unpredictable. Help Mary Peltola keep her financial lead.
OR 04 Incumbent Val Hoyle is #36 among vulnerable Democratic incumbents on Len’s List. Val Hoyle’s $400,000 on October 1 would seem anemic for an incumbent. However, her potential opponents’ fund raising was negligible. Help Val Hoyle become a substantial favorite instead of a moderately vulnerable candidate.
There is One Very Big Senate race in the Northwest to pay attention to
Incumbent Jon Tester of Montana. See Len’s Political Note #550. With Joe Manchin no longer running for reelection, many see Jon Tester as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Jon Tester is prepared financially. On October 1, he had $13 Million available, ten times as much as Tim Sheehy his probable opponent who has enough money to make up the difference from his personal checkbook. Help Jon Tester stay ahead.
