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November 6th , 2023 Political Note #598 Deborah Mucarsel-Powell Florida Senator
2024 General Election
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was so much the favorite of the Florida Democratic establishment to run against for former Governor of Florida and current US Senator Rick Scott that her only primary opponent dropped out.
Admittedly, the Florida Democratic establishment’s recent record is not great. No Democrat holds state wide office. The last Democratic Governor was the former Lt. Governor Buddy Mackay who succeeded Lawton Childs after his death in 1998. The last Democratic US Senator was Bill Nelson. He was elected in 2000, 2006, and 2012 but lost in 2018.
The Democratic establishment counts for something. They help with fund raising, with visibility, with the votes that make a difference in a primary when there is a primary. In the five weeks after her announcement, she raised $1.5 Million. Senator Scott mocked that figure, saying the last Democratic Senate candidate had raised three times as much in a similar period of time. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has not raised enough.
If Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is going to defeat Senator Rick Scott, who has nearly unlimited amounts of personal money, but lists only $3 million available on October 1, she has to raise a lot of money from us and other grass roots groups. With the money she raises, she can tell her compelling and complex story and she can contribute to the growing sense that Rick Scott has outlasted his welcome.
You might describe Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s life as a typical immigrant story. To escape from poverty her family came to the United States. She went to college, studied hard, married well, and got jobs with increasingly greater responsibility. But every immigration story is different. Look at the general picture and pay attention to the details. The general picture is that at age 14, in 1985, she, her mother, and three older sisters immigrated from Ecuador to Pomona, California. Later Debbie Mucarsel-Powell moved across the country to Florida.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s mother took her family of girls to the United States in 1985, leaving her husband behind. In 1984, Leon Febres Cordero had been elected president of Ecuador. In 1985, rebels kidnapped the head of Filanbanco. The President killed five of the rebels; the head of the bank did not survive the kidnapping. Neither did peace in Ecuador as a rebellion against Febres Cordero’s authoritarian rule began in 1986. That was the context that persuaded Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s mother to leave the country.
By 1994, Ecuador had a new President and a new rebellion, this time by the indigenous. Fifty indigenous people were killed during protests that led to proposed constitutional amendments. The proposals failed in a referendum. In 1995 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s father was shot and killed outside his own home. When she talks about that murder, she discusses it as if it reflected North American problems. She deplores the availability of guns and suggests the need for gun safety. What was needed in Ecuador, of course, was political stability, the chance for a failing democracy to succeed.
Where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s father was on Ecuador’s political spectrum is unclear. It does not matter really, though whispering campaigns that claim he was killed by communists may help her a little in Florida’s Cuban electorate.We can see where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is on the United States political spectrum and how she got there. She is a moderate Democrat with a particular view about the importance of non-profits.
Her mother had brought her daughters to the center of California’s distinguished private colleges – the Claremont Colleges. Ensconced in their one bedroom apartment in Pomona, the older girls moved on with their lives as soon as possible. Fourteen-year old Debbie Mucarsel went to work in a donut shop and attended Pomona Catholic High School. Her attendance at a Catholic High School may be a clue that her family was not part of the left-wing movements in Ecuador.
After High School, Debbie Mucarsel went to Pitzer College in Claremont – less than five miles from home. After her undergraduate degree in political science from Pitzer (a clue that her father may have had political interests), she got a degree in international political economy from the Claremont Graduate School (a further clue). The year was 1996 – the year after her father was murdered.
Debbie Mucarsel worked for non-profit organizations in Florida beginning with the religiously oriented Hope Center and the ecologically oriented Coral Society. She had a knack for raising money. By the time she was 30, she had followed a sister or a friend to Miami and was the Associate Director of Development for the Zoological Society of Florida. In 2003, she took a job with Florida International University where she became, FIU’s Vice President for Advancement and the School of Medicine’s Associate Dean. In 2018, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell ran for Congress and was elected, flipping a Republican seat.
In 2000, her husband Robert Powell, BA Hampshire College, JD Yeshiva University’s Cardozo School of Law was an Associate at a firm with offices in more than 40 locations around the world, among them Miami. In 2003, he became General Counsel for Stanley, Black & Decker. In 2008, he became General Counsel for Georgian American Alloys, Inc. – a position he left before his wife’s Congressional campaign began.
His Georgian American Alloys role became a campaign issue. The incumbent Congressman attacked Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for being married to the attorney for Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. The incumbent claimed that Kolomoisky was a nascent left wing dictator along the lines of Cuba’s Castro or Venezuela’s Madura. Politifact found that Kolomoisky was an investor in Georgian American, but far from being the owner, had been accused of corruption and of funding militias that resisted Russian encroachment on Ukraine, that Robert Powell had earned close to $700,000 in a two year period for his Ukrainian work, and that Georgian American Alloys ultimately lost its permits because it did not pay Georgian fees (which looked to me like not paying bribes).
In her brief term in office, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell attempted to address mitigating the impact of climate change on Florida’s coastline. She was among the several Democrats who lost seats in 2020 leaving the Democrats with a majority in the House of Representatives as slim as Kevin McCarthy’s 2022 majority, but better managed by Nancy Pelosi.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell went to work for the Biden State Department. Her husband went to work as legal counsel for the Fiesta Restaurant Group – less fraught than dealing with the Ukrainians, the Georgians, the Russians, and the Republicans. When Democrats went looking for a candidate to oppose Rick Scott, they found Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and argued that Scott had passed his sell-by date.
Rick Scott was originally a businessman. In a slight echo of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his first business was a donut shop. Ultimately, the business he created was, as he describes it, “the world’s largest health care company.” When he describes his political goal, it is to help Americans have the business opportunities he had. He never does say his goal is or ever was to help Americans have excellent health care.
BA from Missouri – Kansas City, JD from Southern Methodist, his education was largely funded by the GI Bill after his service in the Navy. He moved on from his donut shop to purchasing hospitals with a partner. He parlayed those purchases into ownership of the Hospital Corporation of America. In 1997, he resigned his role as chairman and CEO in the face of investigations by the IRS and the Department of Health and Human Services. The company pled guilty to 14 felonies and paid more than $600 million in fines and settled various civil suits for over $2 Billion. During his deposition regarding the company’s criminal behavior, he declined to comment based on the 5th Amendment 75 times. Scott had been paid just under $10 million and $350,000 worth of stock to leave the company. None of his subsequent businesses had that kind of difficulty, though he did have to settle a discrimination law suit in 2007. Disclosure of the amount paid was prohibited.
In 2009, Scott created an organization called Conservatives for Patients’ Rights. In 2010, he ran for election as Governor of Florida and won by 1.2%. In 2014, he ran again for reelection as Governor of Florida and won by 1%. In 2018, he ran for US Senator and ousted Bill Nelson, the Democratic incumbent by .12%. Memorably, Lyndon Johnson earned the sobriquet “Landslide Lyndon” with a narrow victory in 1948. If Scott had an “L” in his name, he could get the name Landslide, too.
While Republican Senators have some frustrations with him because he handled money so badly when he managed the Republican Senatorial campaigns in 2022, some of what they saw as wasted money was spent on self-promotion. He thought that was valuable. More disturbing to Democrats and independents and older people was his proposal to require social security and Medicaid and other programs be approved every five years. Now that he is up for election, he has withdrawn the social security and Medicaid part of that proposal, but everyone remembers. He ran for Minority Leader against Mitch McConnell – angering the Minority Leader and several Senators who hope to replace McConnell when he is retires (or is incapacitated). Today’s question: Has Scott made himself vulnerable in facing the people of Florida?
You can make Scott’s vulnerabilities more visible by supporting Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign. Electing a Democratic Senator would be a very big win. Help create that win.
Vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents. Donate to every one of them if you can. If you can’t, start at the top of the list. Maybe jump Gallego up a little higher.
Ohio – Sherrod Brown. An October Emerson College Poll showed. him leading Businessman Bernie Moreno 35-33, but trailing Secretary of State Frank La Rose 38-39 and former State Senator and Gubernatorial candidate Matt Dolan 36-38. Sherrod Brown entered October with $11.2 million. Matt Dolan began the month with $6.7 million, Bernie Moreno with $5 million, and Frank La Rose with $870 thousand. Len’s Political Note #556
Montana – Jon Tester. An October Emerson College Poll showed him leading former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy 39-35. Jon Tester began October with $13 million in cash; Sheehy had $1.1 million. Sheehy’s Net Worth has been described as $11 million. Len’s Political Note #550
Nevada – Jacky Rosen. There are no recent polls. A non-partisan poll by Vote TXT in May showed her leading election denier and former Secretary of State candidate Jim Merchant 39-35 and trailing former Attorney General Adam Laxalt 41-42. Merchant is an announced candidate, Laxalt is not. Jacky Rosen began October with $8.8 million. Former Army Captain and former House candidate Sam Brown began with $940 thousand. Former Ambassador Jeff Gunter began October with $319 thousand and Jim Marchant with $36 thousand. Both Brown and Gunter have been described as wealthy. Len’s Political Note #564
Pennsylvania – Bob Casey Jr. An October 4 Emerson College poll showed him leading Businessman and Former Gubernatorial candidate David McCormick 41-33. An October 2 Quinnipiac University poll showed him leading McCormick 50-44. Bob Casey Jr entered October with $7.4 million. McCormick reported no campaign funds to start October. Reports show McCormick’s net worth at more than $116 million and may be substantially more. Len’s Political Note #581
Wisconsin – Tammy Baldwin. There are no recent polls. A Republican funded poll by Fabrizio, Lee in May showed her leading Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is not a candidate, 47-46. Tammy Baldwin began October with $6.8 million. No potential opponent had more than a few thousand dollars. Len’s Political Note #570
Vulnerable Democratic Seats
Arizona – Congressman Ruben Gallego. A non-partisan October 8 poll showed him even with former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake 44-44 and behind Lake 37-33-19 when the incumbent, now independent, Kyrsten Sinema was in the race. Sinema was third. An October 7 poll funded by Gallego showed Ruben Gallego ahead of Lake 42-36 and ahead of both of them in a three-way race 41-36-15. The October 7 poll showed Ruben Gallego ahead of Sheriff Mark Lamb 40-31 and ahead in a three way race that included Kyrsten Sinema 40-31-16. The money race is different. Ruben Gallego had $5 million on October 1. Kyrsten Sinema had more — $10.8 million. Kari Lake reported no campaign funds available while Mark Lamb reported a little more than $300 thousand. Len’s Political Note #544
Michigan – Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin. The most recent polls are from August. An EPIC-MRA poll showed her leading former Congressman Mike Rogers 42-37. An Emerson College polls showed her leading him 44-38. Against other currently announced candidates, the Emerson College poll found her leading former Detroit police chief James Craig 45-38 and State Board of Education Member Nikki Snyder 44-36. Elissa Slotkin entered October with $5.1 million. Former Congressman Mike Rogers entered October with just under $800 thousand. No other candidates had significant funds. Len’s Political Note #589
A Separate Category of a vulnerable Democratic Seat
West Virginia – Incumbent Joe Manchin has not yet announced his candidacy. He has raised the possibility of an independent candidacy for President – with or without the No Labels label. An October 4 Emerson College poll found him leading Congressman Alex Mooney 37-31, bur trailing Governor Jim Justice 41-28. A Republican funded Torrence Group poll found him running as an independent trailing Justice by the smaller amount 49-43. Joe Manchin entered October with $11.3 million. Mooney had $1.6 million; Justice had $1.2 million. Until Joe Manchin announces otherwise, I suggest treating him as a vulnerable Democratic Senator. Without him running for the Senate, even as an independent, this seat is the most vulnerable of all Democratic Senate seats.
Democrats who could flip a Republican Senate Seat
The standard analysis is that the Democrats are likely to lose the Senate. There are too many vulnerable Democrats; there is little margin for error. But here are three possibilities for flipping a Republican seat. The states are in alphabetical order.
Florida – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell v Incumbent Rick Scott A June poll funded by former Congressional candidate Phil Ehr who has withdrawn in favor of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell found him behind Scott 45-41. As of October 1, Incumbent Rick Scott had already spent more than $12 million on his campaign and still had $3 million available. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had $1 million. Scott is a billionaire; Mucarsel-Powell has a record of being an excellent fund raiser. Len’s Political Note #597
Missouri – Lucas Kunce v Incumbent Josh Hawley. An October 4 Emerson College poll found Lucas Kunce trailing Hawley 45-32, a larger margin than the 10 points that County Attorney Wesley Bell trailed Hawley. Lucas Kunce entered October with $1.7 million available to spend (Bell had $88 thousand). Hawley had already spent $13 million and had $4.7 million available. I am not ready to quit yet. Len’s Political Note #538
Texas – Colin Allred v Incumbent Ted Cruz. There are no recent polls. A May 21 University of Texas at Tyler poll found Colin Allred trailing Cruz 42-37. A May 17 Texas Hispanic Foundation Poll found him trailing Cruz 47-40. Colin Allred has been an effective fund raiser and entered October with $7.9 million. He will need to spend a little of that to fend off State Senator Roland Guttierez in the primary. Although Colin Allred had more than Ted Cruz’ $5.7 on October 1, Cruz had already spent $35 million to keep his lead. We will see if the very early spending of these three vulnerable Republicans pays off or if the very early spending was profligate. Len’s Political Note #560
One more for the hell of it
Tennessee – Gloria Johnson. An October 4 Emerson College poll showed Incumbent Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn ahead of the State Representative 50 – 26. Gloria Johnson has a little money to spend. She had $1.2 million on October 1. She has less than Incumbent Marsha Blackburn, of course, who had $6.5 million on that date. If you have enough money left after supporting the vulnerable Democrats and the insurgents in places that some pundits think could flip a Republican seat, consider Gloria Johnson. When the Tennessee House expelled two Black Representatives, they missed expelling Gloria Johnson by a single vote – all for protesting for gun safety on the House floor with people in the gallery. Marsha Blackburn could easily join Ted Cruz Josh Hawley, and Rick Scott as a Rogue’s Gallery of terrible US Senators.
