Len’s Political Note #808 Flip the Senate, Donate to a Dozen

April 25tht , 2026                     Len’s Political Note #808 Let’s Flip the Senate

2026                                              General Election

 

People ask me who they should give money to.  It would be too much to tell people to give money to everyone I recommend.  I will try to create an order to things – identify who to give money to first.  I conclude the month of April with the Senate.

Instead of giving you a list of five candidates – which, I know would make life simpler…..   Instead of giving you a list of ten or eleven candidates – which would make life a little harder, I am going to give you a longer list.  I am going to do it in two parts.

Today, let’s flip the Senate by giving money to the candidates where your donations have the most leverage; where they could make a difference in achieving the gain of four Senate seats that the Democrats need.

These candidates are listed in order of where your donation will make the most impact.  (In my opinion. This is not science.) Cut off your donations at five or 8 or donate to all twelve.  Donate more to the first five or six; a little less to the rest.  Donate more to candidates in the big states where more money is needed.  Or donate more money to candidates in the small states where your money goes farther.  Read what I have written about each candidate, read Len’s Political Note where one is available, read elsewhere, and make your own decision.  But do not sit on the sidelines.

  1. Alaska (1 Congressional District)  – Mary Peltola.  Begin with her.  A former Congresswoman who lost 51-49 in 2024 and a Native American member of the Yupik, she may be gaining enough to put the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan away. Sullivan rarely departs from Donald Trump’s positions and mainly works at minimizing comments about any policies except those that are specific to Alaska.  In January, Mary Peltola was 2 points ahead of Dan Sullivan in a poll, In March she was 5 points ahead. On April 1, she was gaining in the financial race and had $5.7 million to his $7 million.  She is a moderate Democrat whose strongest ally is probably the other Republican Senator – Lisa Murkowski.  FLIP THIS SEAT.   DONATE to Mary Peltola.  See Len’s Political Note #785

  1. Iowa (4 Congressional Districts) – State Senator Zach Wahls is dominating his primary opponent, leading in some polls by double digits. He needs resources for the general election.  Congresswoman Ashley Hinson completed the first quarter of 2026 with $6.5 million COH while Zach Wahls had $1 million.  The Democratic establishment prefers his primary opponent because  they think Zach Wahls is less electable.  He is the child of two mothers, sees himself as a member of the LGBTQ community and has been a spokesperson on their behalf nationally.  Wahls himself is married to a woman and they have a child.  Republicans prefer him as an opponent because he is progressive on other issues as well and think he would be vulnerable to attack.  Zach Wahls has been effective when in the public eye.  He served as minority leader in the State Senate and is comfortable with his political positions.  With resources, he can win a contest against former television anchor Ashley Hinton who has said that “it is an honor” to fight on Donald Trump’s side. FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO ZACH WAHLS

  1. Michigan (13 Congressional Districts) – Congresswoman Haley Stevens. Or maybe not.  Maybe State Senator Mallory McMorrow.  Or maybe County Health Director Abdul El Sayed.  They are competing for the Senate seat that Democrat Gary Peters is retiring from.  A relatively late primary of August 4 and the close competition for the seat gives Michigan the most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat in the country.   By rights, Democrats should be pleased with having three strong candidates for the Senate from Michigan.  Congresswoman Haley Stevens served as Chief of Staff to Stephen Rattner,  Barack Obama‘s appointed leader of the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry. Charged with saving the country’s automobile industry during the financial crisis that began in 2007, she was part of making Chapter 11 bankruptcy for General Motors and Chrysler routes to saving the companies and the industry.  State Senator Mallory McMorrow has made herself a voice for women in Michigan and nationally with her brilliant response in the State Senate to a charge by a fellow state senator that her political views were “grooming and sexualizing” kindergarteners.  She made that defense, she said, as “a straight, white, Christian, married, suburban mom who knows that the very notion that learning about slavery or redlining or systemic racism somehow means that children are being taught to feel bad or hate themselves because they are white is absolute nonsense.” Abdul El-Sayed was the kind of highschooler who captained his football, wrestling, and lacrosse teams; the kind of college student who would earn a Rhodes Scholarship before getting his medical degree; and the kind of public administrator who could straighten out the Detroit and the Wayne County health departments. And he is the kind of candidate who gets support from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.  Early on, it seemed to me that Haley Stevens had the edge in this race.  She raised slightly more money.  She did a little better in the polls.  Not so much anymore. On April 1, the beginning of the second quarter of 2026, McMorrow had $3.7 million in cash, Stevens had $3.4 million, and El-Sayed had $2.5 million.  The Republican candidate, with no primary to worry about, had $4.2 million. None of them have enough money for a campaign in a large state.   One recent poll gave Haley Stevens a one-point lead over McMorrow and El-Sayed.  Another gave McMorrow the lead with Stevens    For now, I will stick with my original message.  Waiting to donate  until after the August 4 primary may be too late to defeat former FBI Agent, former Congressman, and current radio talk show guy Mike Rogers who lost to Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024 48.6 to 48.3.  So I say: KEEP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO HALEY STEVENS.  See Len’s Political Note #763. If you prefer to donate to another Democrat, go right ahead. Whoever you support, get out there in a way that minimizes the bitterness among the Democrats and maximizes their capacity to coalesce around the winner and defeat Mike Rogers.

  1. Maine (2 Congressional Districts) — Graham Platner is an Oyster Farmer, a Hotchkiss Prep School grad, an ex US Marine with four Afghanistan deployments (one with the Army National Guard), and an angry youngish man who has become the darling of the left (notwithstanding tattoos that resemble those favored by the Nazis and distinctively un-“me too” Redditt posts from years ago.  His lead in the polls over Governor Janet Mills who acquiesced too late to establishment urgings that she run is so dominant he has turned to focus of defeating the currently unpopular incumbent Republican Susan Collins.  Graham Platner is consistently leading Collins in polls but not by enough to even think about coasting. Furthermore, she closed the first quarter of 2026 with $10 million to Graham Platner’s  $7 million.  Who would Graham Platner be like as a US Senator?  John Fetterman?  A young Bernie Sanders?  Either way, he would be better than Republican Mugwump Susan Collins who always comes through for the Republicans when it counts.  FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO GRAHAM PLATNER.

  1. New Hampshire (2 Congressional Districts) – Congressman Chris Pappas is running to replace retiring, three term Senator Jeanne Shaheen. He is from a long-time New Hampshire political family that started their restaurant as an ice cream stand early in the 20th  Although he is a gay man, his sexual orientation is not central to his politics, which are moderate.  He appears to be genuinely interested in solving problems without regard to party or ideology.  His opponent is John E. Sununu, son of John H, brother of the sainted former governor Chris who was adamant about not running.  John E was elected to the Senate in 2002, lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008.  He wants to win the election in 2026 to replace her. Chris Pappas’s lead in the polls is narrower than he and we would like. The two most recent polls, both in March, showed Chris Pappas leading by 2 points or 3 points. Financially, Chris Pappas’s lead is a bit more comfortable. On April 1, with the first quarter in the books, Chriss Pappas had $4.2 million to John Sununu’s $1.9 million.  KEEP THIS SEAT.  DONATE TO CHRIS PAPPAS. See Len’s Political Note #743.

If you limit yourself to donating to my top five, you will have helped flip three Republican seats – one short of enough to flip the Senate.  And you will have helped protect the most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat and another Democratic seat which appears to be surprisingly vulnerable.  I will encourage you to do more. 

  1. Montana (2 Congressional Districts) Seth Bodnar is a retired Lt. Colonel who has retained that title in the Montana National Guard. From western Pennsylvania, the went to West Point where he graduated first in his class, was awarded a Rhodes scholarship, and studied at Oxford (where he met his wife who is from a family that has been in Montana for generations). He served as a Green Beret and commanded a Special Forces detachment in Iraq before serving in Baghdad as the assistant to the Commanding General.  Seth Bodnar returned to West Point to teach after which he became an executive at General Electric.  And then he was offered a dream job.  He became President of the University of Montana and brought his wife home. In Montana, he made a friend – Senator Jon Tester who lost his election in 2024.  Tester and others urged Seth Bodnar to run for the US Senate, in effect to replace Tester, but as an independent.  The Republican Senator, Steve Daines, up for election inadvertently did Seth Bodnar a favor.  Daines organized a switcheroo. He withdrew his name as a candidate at the very last minute and was replaced by former US Attorney Kurt Alme. Montanans do not appreciate this kind of trick play.  In this state where Jon Tester sees having the Democratic label as a liability, independent Seth Bodnar has become Kurt Alme’s main opponent. While there are no relevant polls, we can look at the money race.  On April 1, after the first quarter of 2026 was completed, Seth Bodnar was leading with $1.1 million cash on hand to Kurt Alme’s $900,000.  FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO INDEPENDENT SETH BODNAR. See Len’s Political Note #797

  1. Nebraska (3 Congressional Districts). Union leader Dan Osborn helped lead a strike against Kellogg’s and became a regional figure. Running for the Senate as an independent in 2024, he raised a startling $15.1 million, substantially more than incumbent Republican Deb Fischer’s $8.9 million.  Dan Osborn lost the race by 6.5 points – quite an achievement for a machinist in the navy and in civilian life whose only political experience was to have an uncle in Nebraska who had been a county executive.  Dan Osborn is back for 2026 and the Nebraska Democrats again have his back by not running a candidate.  Now that he has a little experience, can he do better this time running against incumbent Republican, multimillionaire and former governor Pete Ricketts? There are two polls.  Each of them show Dan Osborn trailing by a point.  In the money race, Ricketts was leading Dan Osborn at the end of the first quarter $1.1 million to $940,000.  It is hard to take this last report as a definitive measure of campaign finances since Pete Ricketts is a multi-millionaire.  FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO DAN OSBORN. See Len’s Political Note #765

  1. Florida (28 Congressional Districts) You remember Alexander Vindman. He was the whistleblower whose report about Trump blackmailing Ukrainian President Zelensky to “investigate” Hunter and Joe Biden led to the first Trump impeachment. Alexander Vindman entered the race for the Senate from Florida at the end of January, 2026. He turned the race against Republican Ashley Moody, the state Attorney General appointed to replace Marco Rubio and a far right Republican, upside down.  You need a lot of money to win a statewide race in the third largest state in the country.  Ashley Moody completed the first quarter of 2026 with only $7.1 million Cash on Hand. In February and March of 2026, Alexander Vindman raised $8.2 million and ended the first quarter of the year with $6.4 million Cash on Hand.  Alexander Vindman has gained in the polls as well.   In March two polls had Vindmantrailing – one by 7 points, the other by 8.  In April, Alexander Vindman was still training – in one poll by 3 points, the other by 1. He is gaining in the polls and in finances, demonstrating that he can be elected to this 2 year position to complete the term of office that Mario Rubio began.  FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO ALEXANDER VINDMAN. See Len’s Political Note # 791

  1. Ohio (15 Congressional Districts). Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted. A heavyweight bout for a championship?  Two nearly washed-up middleweights fighting for the booby prize of two years in the Senate and another election in 2028 overshadowed by the presidential election?  Sherrod Brown won US Senate elections in 2006 (defeating current governor Mike DeWine), in 2012, and in 2018.  He lost in 2024.  Before that he won state-wide elections for Secretary of State in 1982 and 1986, but lost in 1990 (to a candidate with a name familiar to people in Ohio – Bob Taft).  In between his time as Secretary of State and US Senator, Sherrod Brown was a member of the US Congress.  Jon Husted was elected Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014. In 2018 and 2022, he was elected Lt. Governor on the ticket with Mike DeWine.  Before he was elected Secretary of State, Jon Husted served in the Ohio House of Representatives — elected in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006.  When the House convened after the 2004 election, he was chosen to be Speaker of the House.  After he completed four terms in the House, he was elected to the Ohio State Senate. When Jon Husted was chosen to be House Speaker, he succeeded term limited Larry Householder.  Householder was returned to the House of Representatives in the 2018 election when Jon Husted was elected Lt. Governor. Householder was arrested in July 2020 and eventually convicted for his role in a $61 million bribery scheme. FirstEnergy did the bribing. Was there anyone else in the legislature who was bribed?  Did Larry Householder show any indication of susceptibility to bribes during his first term as Speaker?  If he did, did Jon Husted notice?  Did he notice anything amiss while serving as Lt Governor? While asking these questions about Jon Husted, reluctantly I ask similar questions about Democratic Congresswoman Emilia Sykes.  She was in the Ohio House when Larry Householder became Speaker, organized the Black caucus on his behalf in the contest to become Speaker, and became Minority leader as a consequence.  That is an aside.  In this very close  Senate race, there were two polls in March.  One found Sherrod Brown leading by 2 points; the other found him trailing by two points. In the financial race, Sherrod Brown closed out the first quarter of 2026 with $16.5 million dollars; Husted had $8.2 million.   FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO SHERROD BROWN.  See Len’s Political Note #750.

  1. Texas (38 Congressional Districts) A year ago, not many knew anything about Texas State Rep James Talarico. On March 3 of this year, James Talarico captured national attention by winning the Democratic primary while the Incumbent Senator and Texas’s Attorney General were left to fight it out in a primary run-off that will not happen until May 26. Will the winning Republican exhaust all of his resources?  Will the winning Republican exhaust all of his energy?  There will be resources to spend to keep Texas Republican.  Whoever wins the run off, will need some energy drinks to get back on track.  Right now, we know that the 36 year-old Democratic State Rep and Presbyterian seminary student looks good. People remember James Talarico as an articulate and religious man who is not moved to either racism or misogyny by his belief in God.  In March polls, he is a point or two ahead of either Republican.  James Talarico is looking good financially,  In the first quarter of 2026, he raised $27 million and finished with $9.8 million Cash on Hand.   John Cornyn raised $9 million and has $8 million to spend on his primary run off.  Ken Paxton raised $3.8 million. (if I read accurately, the figures for both Cornyn and Paxton include PAC funds.). We do not know what the polls or the financial condition of the Republican and the Democratic candidate will be on June 30 after Republican primary run-off is run and the second quarter of the year is completed.  Help James Talarico keep on introducing himself to Texas while the Republicans fight each other.  Help him be prepared for his Republican opponent.  FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE. See Len’s Political Note #795

  1. Georgia (14 Congressional Districts). Initially seen as the most vulnerable Democratic Senator, Jon Ossoff is looking a bit more secure. The Cook Report changed its rating and now calls the Georgia Senate race Leans Democratic. In 2020, Jon Ossoff won the run off by 1.2 points; a run off required because the first round did not produce a winner with more than 50% of the vote as Georgia requires.  Jon Ossoff had been behind in the first round.  In the only 2026 poll, Jon Ossoff leads his probable opponent Congressman Mike Collins 48-43. He will need 50% to avoid a run-off and beginning on April 1 was farther ahead in the financial race than in the polls — $31.7 million to $2.1 million.  From high school intern with Congressman John Lewis to documentary filmmaker about international corruption to US Senator, Jon Ossoff has found a path that works.  His largely Black constituency supports him.  Georgians do not see him as too much of a cultural progressive.  He seems comfortable with who he is.  KEEP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO JON OSSOFF.  See Len’s Political Note #713.

  1. North Carolina (14 Congressional Districts) Roy Cooper completed the two terms allowed as governor and the two terms allowed as attorney general after a career in the state legislature. He has been in the public eye for a long time. One North Carolina analyst wrote “No governor in modern state history has faced a legislature so bent on thwarting his every move – or seen his role so often reduced to trying to thwart his advisories.”  Not glamorous work, but crucial for the progress of North Carolina. Roy Cooper was respected for it; even liked for it.  There have been four polls in March and April.  They show him leading by 3, 5, 8, or 14 points. Roy Cooper is doing well financially, too.  He closed out the first quarter with $18.5 million available to spend on his campaign.  His Republican opponent had $2.5 million.  Michael Whatley, is the former head of the North Carolina Republican Party and the former head of the national Republican party.  It seems inconceivable that, even though North Carolina has a history of electing Democrats to run the state and Republicans to represent the state in Washington, North Carolinians will support Michael Whately rather than Roy Cooper. MAKE SURE I AM RIGHT. FLIP THIS SEAT. DONATE TO ROY COOPER.  See Len’s Political Note #744

We have a dozen candidates now.  If Democrats win all of these races….  (They could win them all if we all help them out enough, but don’t count on it.)  If we donate and keep on donating to all of these races and Democrats win all of these races, we will have helped flip nine Republican seats and protected three vulnerable Democratic seats. Democrats and their allies would have 56 seats in the US Senate, Republicans 44. 

 

You could stop here.  But look at what is coming in the next Len’s Political Note —   long shots worth considering.  There is no possibility that all of the next group of Democrats will win. My bet is that that one of them will win. Maybe two.  I just don’t know which one or two. Donations to these Democrats will, at a minimum, help create contests in Senate races Republicans expect to be free rides.