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June 20th Len’s Political Note #733 JD Scholten Iowa US Senate
2026 General Election
Is this a long shot? JD Scholten chases the American dream. Not riches. Sometimes baseball. More recently politics.
Since his graduation from the University of Nebraska, with a year off to work as a legal paraprofessional, he has been playing professional baseball. Playing in Iowa, he has been a pretty good minor league pitcher; but he never made it to the majors.
In politics, JD Scholten started by trying out for the major leagues. In 2018, he ran for Congress in Iowa’s most Republican district and almost defeated the extremist incumbent Steve King 50-47. He ran again in 2020, having alerted Congressman and now gubernatorial candidate Randy Feenstra to Steve King’s weakness. Feenstra won the Republican primary and, posing as a moderate, won the election.
Elected to the state House of Representatives in 2022, JD Scholten is making another try for the political major leagues. He announced his run against incumbent US Senator Joni Ernst. He will have a primary opponent – Nathan Sage. He might have one or two other primary opponents. Iowa Democrats have decided. Joni Ernst is vulnerable.
Ernst did the nation a disservice. Poised to vote against confirming Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, Donald Trump persuaded her otherwise. Perhaps he promised he would support her in a primary if she voted for Hegseth. Maybe he threatened her with a primary opponent if she did not support Hegseth. Had she opposed Hegseth, she would have prevented his confirmation. Had Hegseth not been confirmed, he would have demonstrated the vulnerability of Trump’s nominees and several others would not have been confirmed. Her support for Hegseth’s nomination triggered his confirmation and the confirmation of almost all of Trump’s terrible nominees. For that act alone, Joni Ernst deserves defeat in her campaign for a third term as Senator from Iowa.
She found a new way to make herself vulnerable – antagonistic behavior at a Town Hall. Exasperated at the Town Hall she had scheduled, perhaps in the hope that no one would come, for 7:30 in the morning, she found herself in front of angry constituents, among them Nathan Sage. Constituents complained about reductions in Medicaid. Rosy cheeked India May, now a candidate for Iowa’s House of Representatives, shouted “People are going to die.” Joni Ernst responded saying that everyone will die eventually. The response to her comment was riotous anger in the room.
The next day Joni Ernst issued an apology. Decide for yourself how she meant it. “I was in the process of answering a question that had been asked by an audience member when a woman who was extremely distraught screamed out, from the back corner of the auditorium, ‘People are going to die!’,,,…I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that yes, we are all going to perish from this earth. So I apologize. And I’m really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well.”
The following day, Joni Ernst tried again, referring to Christianity. “… [F]or those that would like to see eternal and everlasting life, I encourage you to embrace my lord and savior, Jesus Christ.”
It is a long time between May, 2025 and November, 2026. People may forget. They may forget their anger or Ernst’s sarcasm. Some political remarks are never forgotten. John Kerry’s statement about support and non-support of funding the Iraq war, for instance – “I actually did vote for his $87 billion, before I voted against it”—was an unforgettable flip flop that may have cost him the presidency.
Has Joni Ernst weakened herself enough to invite primary opponents, more Democratic candidates? It is possible. Joni Ernst’s “own goal” is so recent, so visible, so present, I decided not to wait until we know who the Democratic candidate for the Senator from Iowa. The primary will be June 2, 2026. That is when the Democrats pick their candidate.
I ask you to support JD Scholten. If you are not convinced, support Nathan Sage, the other declared candidate. State Senator Zach Wahls just announced. He is something of a gay rights activist. Or wait until June 2026 when we will know who the Democratic candidate is.
Nathan Sage is an option. He is an angry man. Raised in an Iowa trailer park, son of a factory worker and a day care staffer, he joined the marines, returned home to work as a mechanic, then joined the army. Altogether, he had three tours in Iraq, eight years in military service, and enough eligibility for the GI Bill which, along with his working a factory night shift, he was able to get a BA from Kansas State. After graduation, he worked in sales, work that helped him become the head of a small town, local chamber of commerce.
What Sage says about what Americans are facing reflects his anger: “Family farms and small businesses getting screwed over. Veterans return home and are abandoned. People are working longer hours for fewer dollars. The economy is rigged. And those in power don’t give a damn.,,, For decades, the billionaires and multi-national monopolies who bought up both parties have been rewriting the rules to favor themselves. Small businesses, family farmers, and the working class are being ground into the dirt while profits soar for a tiny handful of enormous corporations. We are entering a new Gilded Age – and it’s time to fight back.”
I don’t fault Nathan Sage’s anger or his goals. Instead, though, I suggest JD Scholten.
JD Scholten has demonstrated he can attract a substantial number of Republicans if the Republican candidate has alienated enough of those Republicans. JD Scholten makes his points and demonstrates his anger. He posts on his Facebook page: “Jesus didn’t die on the cross for Joni Ernst to make fun of him. “
JD Scholten knows how to chase the American dream. Only a ballplayer who truly loves baseball would sign a contract and play in the Dutch league called the Honkbal Hoofdklasse in the hope that it would lead to the Bigs. Now in his forties, a member of the Iowa House of Representatives, he still pitches for the Sioux City Explorers.
JD Scholten’s characteristic political pitch is a slow curve with a sharp snap at the end. He tells his Iowa audiences on his campaign webpage and elsewhere: “I’m a baseball-playing, beer drinking, Bible-reading, working-class proud Prairie populist from Sioux City. I grew up here and I’ll die here – but hopefully not because I can’t get health insurance. I believe we deserve more than a GoFundMe broken health care system, a JBS and a Dollar General Economy.” (JBS describes itself as a “global, diversified protein company”.)
Check out his campaign website and listen to him talk. He’s got a voice that would work as a radio announcer or a television anchor, a voice that goes well with his pitch.
JD Scholten has two heroes he refers to: One was the Democratic Iowa Congressman Berkley Bedell, a populist politician who built proposals out of suggestions from constituents. Bedell had become a millionaire building an international fishing tackle business out of his high school practice of making fishing flies in his bedroom. The other was Louis Dembitz Brandeis whose legal commitments were to improving wages and working hours for corporate workers and, later, as a member of the Supreme Court, the right of privacy, the right to one’s private thoughts, the right to express those thoughts, and the right “to be let alone.”
Support JD Scholten. DONATE early. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jd-scholten-1 He has a job oto do catching up to Joni Ernst. She started the second quarter of 2025 with $3 million available to spend on her campaign. That is a small portion of the $30 million she spent on her 2020 campaign and an even smaller portion of the $55 million her Democratic opponent spent. It is a still smaller portion of the $75 million spent by outsiders on behalf of Joni Ernst in 2020 and the $97 million outsiders spent on behalf of her opponent. Your early donations will help JD Scholten be in a position to win this campaign, a campaign that will take just under a year and a half.
Democrats can gain a majority in the Senate by protecting all the vulnerable seats up for election in 2026 and flipping toss-up seats, lean Republican seats, and likely Republican seats. Iowa is a likely Republican seat – all the more reason to start early for JD Scholten.
The seats Democrats must protect are
- Toss ups Georgia and Michigan
- Lean Democratic New Hampshire and Minnesota
The seats the Democrats have the best chance to flip are
- Toss up North Carolina
- Lean Republican Maine
- Likely Republican Iowa, Ohio, and Texas
There are other seats Democrats could have a chance to flip, but we will save those for another time.
Georgia: A Toss Up
Democrat Jon Ossoff is defending his seat. A former documentary journalist and congressional aide, he provided local help by ensuring that students from Morris Brown College, which had lost its accreditation, would be eligible for federal financial aid. He provided leadership in the Senate seeking to prohibit Members of Congress and their spouses from trading stocks. Two Republicans have announced so far — US Representative Buddy Carter and the state insurance commissioner John King. One Republican who has announced he would not run is the popular Governor Brian Kemp against whom Jon Ossoff might have been the underdog. DONATE to Jon Ossoff. Think of it as a beginning of your effort to help flip the Senate. See Len’s Political Note #713
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Jon Ossoff had $11 million dollars; Buddy Carter had $3.5 million. That is just a tidbit of the spending in 2020. Jon Ossoff raised $150 million winning that high spending race. The incumbent Republican, who he defeated, raised $100 million. Outside spending was heavily in favor of his opponent. Supporters of Jon Ossoff’s opponent, the incumbent Senator spent $180 million. Jon Ossoff’s supporters from outside the campaign spent $89 million.
The other Toss up that Democrats have to protect:
Michigan
Haley Stevens Mallory McMorrow
The Democratic incumbent announced he was not going to run again. Four Democrats have, so far, announced they were running: US Representative Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow,County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, and State Representative and former House Speaker Joe Tate. None of them reported having raised or spent any money during the first quarter of 2025. Two Republican candidates have announced. US Representative Bill Huizenga has all but announced and former US Representatives Mike Rogers has definitely announced. Only Rogers reported having any money on March 31, the end of the first quarter. He had about $500,000. The second quarter figures (for the period ending June 30) will not be available until late in July or early August.
For a look at previous spending in Michigan consider the 2024 Senate race. Mike Rogers was the Republican candidate. He lost to US Representative Elissa Slotkin. She spent $50 million. He spent only $12 million. Outsiders spent more – almost $80 million on behalf of Rogers, $65 million on behalf of Slotkin. Mike Rogers has, almost certainly, learned that he has to raise more money this time than he did for 2024. The Democrats will need to raise more money for 2026. If you want to help now, DONATE TO Haley Sevens and/or DONATE TO Mallory McMorrow. Watch with me for the second quarter report; funds raised and money spent through June 30, 2025.
And the Toss-up that Democrats can flip:
North Carolina. Wylie Nickel, an attorney, former state legislator, and a descendent of the owner of much of central California is the prospective candidate who has made his interest in running the most explicit. He is in North Carolina because it is his wife’s home state. You can DONATE to him now. Or you can wait to see if the popular former governor, Roy Cooper, decides to run.
The Democratic nominee will be attempting to defeat incumbent Thom Tillis. Before being elected to the state legislature, he worked for PriceWaterhouse. He was in the state legislature before being elected to the Senate. An opponent of the Tea Party, he has been able to describe himself as a moderate. Is he moderate enough to defeat a strong Democratic candidate? Tillis had available $4 million at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Wylie Nickel had a half million dollars. DONATE and/or wait until we see if Roy Cooper is in.
2020 is a clue for the expected level of spending in 2026. Tillis raised $25 million for his campaign. The Democrat raised more than $50 million. People outside the Republican campaign spent more than $100 million on behalf of Tillis. Outsiders spent about $125 million on behalf of the Democratic candidate. A scandal reported in the last few weeks of the campaign probably prevented a Democratic win. Do not expect less spending in 2026.
The Leans Republican state Democrats could flip
Jordan Wood
In Maine some are waiting for the popular term-limited governor Janet Mills to change her mind and run for the Senate. Tangling with Donald Trump made her more popular at home and a national figure. As we wait for her, probably futilely, one candidate has announced Jordan Wood. He has returned to Maine where he grew up the son of a minister. As an adult, he was the staff chief of California Representative Katie Porter and is the cofounder of DemocracyFIRST, a nonprofit seeking to ensure free and fair elections. DONATE to Jordan Wood and/or wait for Janet Mills. Don’t wait too long.
Janet Mills is older than the incumbent Republican Susan Collins who is seeking her sixth term as Senator from Maine. A middle of the road Republican, some compare her to the legendary Margaret Chase Smith. Smith was rock solid in her defiance of Joe McCarthy’s witch hunt for Communists in government. Collins is more of an OK with this, not OK with that kind of that middle of the roader. She is popular none-the-less. If Democrats are to gain control of the Senate, they need to defeat Collins.
Collins is prepared for a fight. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, she had $3.2 million available for her campaign. The 2020 campaign was not as expensive as some states. Collins raised $30 million for her campaign; substantially less than the $75 million raised by her Democratic opponent. People outside the Collins campaign spent $50 million on her behalf, most of it in opposition to the Democrat. People outside of the Democratic campaign spent $60 Million. Whichever Democrat is the nominee in 2026, he or she will need to understand it will take more than money to defeat Collins.
In addition to Iowa, two other Likely Republican states could be flipped:
Ohio is one state that could be flipped. The former Lt. Governor, John Husted, has been appointed to fill this position that had been vacant as a result of the election of Ohio’s Senator, JD Vance, as Vice President. It will take real work to turn that state’s election into a toss-up, let alone a win for the Democrats. Democrats don’t have a candidate yet. Jon Husted has some vulnerabilities – among them an undisclosed million dollars of campaign contributions from FirstEnergy, the source of a huge bribery scandal in Ohio. Democrats cannot defeat Jon Husted without a candidate.
Texas could also be flipped. Democrats have been thinking that for years, but the last elected Democratic US Senator was Lloyd Bentsen, initially elected in 1970. The incumbent Republican John Cornyn is in trouble. He may be leading his primary opponent, Attorney General Kenneth Paxton, in financial reporting on March 31 — $5.5 million to zero. but Cornyn is trailing in the polls. The primary is not until May 2, 2026. Until then Texans will not know who the Republican nominee will be. Meanwhile, Democrats do not have a candidate. They can’t win without one.
SORRY, I have two more states you should think about. New Hampshire and Minnesota are likely to remain Democratic but are vulnerable enough to warrant early donations. \
To defend the Senate Seat in New Hampshire where the current Senator is retiring, DONATE to Congressman Chris Pappas. He is the only Democratic candidate and will be a fine addition to the Senate. No Republicans have announced yet.
Angie Craig. Peggy Flanagan
Defend the Senate Seat in Minnesota, where the current Senator is retiring. Two serious Democratic candidates are running. DONATE to US Representative Angie Craig and/or DONATE to Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan. Move Angie Craig and/or Peggy Flanagan ahead of the three Republicans who have announced.
There are more states the Democrats could flip a Republican Senate seat – if there is a truly large Democratic wave. More on those states later.
