Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website. Len’s Letter #45 US Senate Candidates to donate to now. Len’s Letter #46 US House Candidates to donate to now. Political Note #107 Greg Stanton AZ 09 (now AZ 04), Political Note #389 Tom O’Halleran AZ 01 (Now AZ 02), Political Note #142 Katie Porter CA 45 (now CA 47), Political Note #405 Jay Chen CA 45, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08 (now MI 07), Political Note #423 NM 02, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02, Political Note #148 Abigail Spanberger VA 07
January 9th 2022 Len’s Letter #47
2022 Donate to House Candidates after December Redistricting
I hate redistricting. A catchphrase which describes redistricting as incumbents choosing their constituents captures how the process erodes democracy. I have an alternative to suggest, but that has to wait. The regular business of this newsletter has to continue. Too many Democrats need money that could make a difference. December’s Redistricting has given us endangered incumbents and opportunities for pick-ups. Instead of telling you about 10 people to give money to, I’m telling you about 15.
I’m including the Lean rating of the relevant districts, ratings used by the 538 website. Very competitive districts range between D+5 and R+5. From +6 to +10, a district “Leans” toward the Republican or Democrat, but is still competitive. I’ll keep the comments about each candidate to less than 200 words.
Donate to these candidates. The investment will pay off in a Congress that comes closer to supporting your views. We need to avoid a Congress focused on bringing down Joe Biden and the Democrats.
INCUMBENTS
- Elaine Luria VA 02. District now rated R+6
- Elissa Slotkin MI 07 District now rated R+4
- Dan Kildee MI 08 District now rated R+1
- Greg Stanton AZ 04 District now rated D+1
- Abigail Spanberger VA 07 District now rated D+2
- Sanford Bishop GA 02 District not rated D+4
- Mike Levin CA 49 District now rated D+5
- Teresa Leger de Fernandez NM 03 District now rated D+5
- Katie Porter CA 47 District now rated D+6
- Tom O’Halleran AZ 02 District now rated R+15
CHALLENGERS
- Jay Chen CA 45 District now rated D+5
- Gabe Vasquez NM 02 District now rated D+4
- Greg Landsman OH 01 now rated R+3
- Heather Mizeur MD 01 District now rated R+8
- Kermit Jones CA 03 District now rated R+8
INCUMBENTS
1.Elaine Luria VA 02. With Norfolk out of the District but Virginia Beach still in, the district leans R+6, 4 points more Republican than the old map. Elaine Luria grew up in Birmingham, Alabama, went to the Naval Academy, got an engineering Master’s degree and training at the Naval Nuclear Power School. She is married to a retired Commander.
For most of her career Elaine Luria managed ship-board nuclear reactors. She retired with the rank of Commander after commanding an assault craft unit with 400 sailors. In Congress, she joined the Problem Solvers caucus composed of moderate Democrats and Republicans. Representing Virginia Beach and other naval towns, Elaine Luria labeled herself a “security Democrat.” She is a particularly strong supporter of Israel. Five Republicans are lined up, each hoping to replace her. (133)
2.Elissa Slotkin MI 07 Elected to the R+6 MI 08, redistricting puts her in MI 07 at R+4. Michigan’s capital Lansing is in the center of the new district. Farmers and butchers, her family’s famous Ball Park Franks were first sold at the Detroit Tigers’ ballpark. She grew up in the suburbs, not on the farm, and went to Cornell starting out in the school of agriculture.
Elissa Slotkin was in New York for graduate school on 9/11. That experience led her to the CIA. She did three tours of duty in Iraq and returned to Washington to work at the National Security Council and as Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Obama administration. Back at the farm with her husband, an army Colonel and former helicopter pilot, she announced for Congress after her local Member of Congress celebrated the House’s vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act. In Congress, she is considered a moderate, but was an early supporter of impeachment of President Trump. So far, only one Republican has announced, an anti-vaxxer and veteran particularly exercised by the military vaccine mandate. (184)
3.Dan Kildee MI 08 His old MI 05 district, rated D+1, ran in a relatively straight line north from Flint to, if there were one, the joint below the tip of Michigan’s mitten. The new R+1 MI 08 doesn’t go as far north. Instead, it pushes a little bit west. Dan Kildee’s uncle preceded him in Congress from MI 05. Michael Moore is one of Dan Kildee’s closest friends, a friendship that goes back to high school. Just out of high school, Dan Kildee ran and won election to the Flint schoolboard. He got a BS from Central Michigan, served as a County Commissioner and County Treasurer and created the first land bank in the country in order to clear away vacant and abandoned structures. He became President of the Center for Community Progress, a non-profit with those same goals.
In 2012, his uncle retired from Congress. Dan Killdee ran and won easily. In Congress, he has focused on supporting cities, raising the federal minimum wage, and strengthening American manufacturing. Republicans in Congress have been recruiting a former Michigan attorney general to run. Instead, they have a former Trump official. (191)
4. Greg Stanton AZ 04 He was a popular mayor of Phoenix, the nation’s fifth largest city, when he decided to run for Congress. He was elected to AZ 07 by 22 points in 2018, reelected by the same margin in 2020 in a district that used to lean D+15. His reelection in the newly numbered AZ 04 will be tougher because the new district leans D+1. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Marquette, he got his law degree at Michigan. His wife, Nicole France Stanton, is from Coalville, Utah. She got her law degree from Arizona, and was a partner in a law firm, until she left to be the in-house attorney of a cannabis company.
Greg Stanton’s family left for the Southwest when he was young enough to attend a west Phoenix high school. He returned home to do education law, worked for the city, and was elected as a can-do mayor. In Congress, he has been a Democratic regular, voting 100% of the time with Joe Biden. He has an activist Democratic primary opponent and six Republicans looking to oppose him. (184)
5. Abigail Spanberger VA 07 She was elected to VA 07 when it leaned R+5 and was a straight north-south line west of Richmond. VA 07 is now entirely north of Richmond, even reaching Virginia’s northern border and leaning D+2. She has been fiscally conservative, opposing the Trump tax cuts and what she saw as excessive spending for Covid relief. She commented that nobody elected Joe Biden to be FDR. Climate change is a particular concern for her. She criticized the proposed Green New Deal for extraneous, non-climate issues, but praised the willingness to take the issue of climate head on.
Abigail Spanberger’s family moved to Virginia when she was thirteen. She graduated from Virginia and got an MBA from a Purdue sponsored program in Germany. She worked as a postal inspector, moved on to the CIA where she remained for eight years. She worked for an educational consulting firm before running for Congress. She is married to Adam Spanberger, a software engineer. Six Republicans are lined up to oppose her. (171).
6.Sanford Bishop GA 02 His district become a little less Democratic – D+4 instead of D+6. He has won when the district was majority Black and when it was majority white. It was majority Black in 1992 when he was first elected; majority white beginning in 1996, reconfigured after a Supreme Court decision, and majority Black after redistricting in 2010. In this southwestern corner of Georgia where voting can be polarized by race he was able to persuade a percentage of conservative white rural voters to vote for him.
The son of the first president of the school eventually renamed Bishop State Community College, he has a BA from Morehouse and a JD from Emory. He served in the Georgia House and its Senate, before he was elected to Congress where he has been a member of the House’s conservative Blue Dog Caucus. He proposed a constitutional amendment to permit prayer in school, supported the war in Iraq, and opposed the Affordable Care Act fearing it would allow abortion. Nevertheless, he was an ardent supporter of Barack Obama. He’s not an easy “out” in Georgia, but five Republicans are lined up to attempt to oust him in November. (198)
7. Mike Levin CA 49. His mother is Mexican American, his father is Jewish. He attended a Catholic High School in LA, got his BA from Stanford, and his law degree from Duke. He founded a clean energy trade association, represented several energy firms, and became the Executive Director of the Orange County Democratic Party. He was elected to represent CA 49 on the coast between LA and San Diego. The district has become slightly less Democratic with redistricting, from D+7 to D+5.
Unsurprisingly, Mike Levin’s principal interest in Congress has been the environment. He has attempted to put an end to off shore drilling and sought to remove nuclear waste more quickly from decommissioned plants. When it comes to voting, though, especially in this extremely close Congress, he has voted 100% with President Joe Biden’s priorities. Two Republicans are now running to oppose him. (145)
8. Teresa Leger de Fernandez NM 03. Santa Fe is central to the district which is a band across the northern part of the state, but the district’s Democratic lean has dropped from D+14 to D+5. A graduate of Yale and Stanford Law School, Teresa Leger de Fernandez returned home as a legal activist. Her law firm continues to focus on community development, tribal interests, and social justice. She had stints working for the Clinton and the Obama White House before her election to Congress in 2020. She took the opportunity when the incumbent ran for the US Senate.
Teresa Leger de Fernandez was born in New Mexico to a bilingual teacher and a state senator. She was endorsed by Deb Haaland, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. In Congress for a year, she has advocated for a Green New Deal, a ban on the sale of military style automatic weapons, and immigration reform that would include the DREAM Act. She was not pleased with the redistricting, but so far, no Republican opponent has announced. Neither she nor we should be overconfident, however. (183)
9. Katie Porter CA 47 was the first Democrat elected to CA 45, a district that had evolved to lean D+6. Her new district, CA 47, is also D+6. It includes an ocean front and Irvine, but otherwise moves west. The Gazette, a regional newspaper, predicts that, of the seven Republicans who have expressed interest in the seat, the former State Assembly Minority Leader, a graduate of Liberty University, will reach the run off against her. He just announced and raised more than $500,000.
Katie Porter is a graduate of Yale and Harvard Law School. Her father was a farmer and a banker. Her mother wrote a book about quilting. Katie Porter has allegiances to both Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren. A student of Warren’s, Attorney General Harris appointed her as a post-law suit independent monitor of California banks. Katie Porter taught at the University of California Irvine before running for Congress where she has been particularly effective in hearings. While being questioned by her, Trump’s head of the CDC agreed to make Covid testing free. Trump’s head of the post office had to acknowledge he did not know the cost of mailing a post card. (199)
10. Tom O’Halleran should not be on this list. Redistricting has made his district a R+15 lean, a challenge for a Democrat to win. He refuses to give up and neither do I. The son of a janitor, he became a Chicago homicide detective. After retiring, he worked at and then joined the Chicago Board of Trade. A perfect Republican, in Arizona he did what Republicans once did – improved education. He got bipartisan bi-partisan support to fund full day kindergarten. Republicans punished him by removing his committee chairmanship and defeating him in the subsequent Republican primary.
He found a comfortable home in the Democratic Party. He was elected to Congress in 2016 as a Democrat, in what was then a swing district, defeating a distasteful Republican I remember when he was in Massachusetts. By 2020, Tom O’Halleran’s district had a R+8 lean and he still won by 3 points. Can he win in a district with an R+15 lean. He can if he raises enough money and Democrats are in reasonably good odor by November. (175)
CHALLENGERS
1. Jay Chen CA 45 He is running against new incumbent Michelle Park Steel in a district that was R+2, but is now D+5. Born and raised in the area, he went to Harvard on a ROTC scholarship, graduating in 2001. He took time off to attend the Universidad de Costa Rica where he became fluent in Spanish. After graduation, he spent two years at Bain & Co, business consultants, then volunteered to help a worker-based Latin American chocolate producer. After achieving the rank of Lt. Commander in the Reserves, he worked for the Defense Intelligence Agency. In 2010, he became President of La Puente Valley Regional Occupational Program which he left to run unsuccessfully for Congress.
The incumbent was born in South Korea. Her husband has been a major Republican Party official for decades. She is opposed to abortion, same sex marriage, a pathway to citizenship for any undocumented immigrants, and to all mask mandates. Unsurprisingly, she is a Trump acolyte. Jay Chen is the only Democrat running and her only opponent. (173)
2. Gabe Vasquez NM 02. He has a chance to defeat a Republican incumbent and give New Mexico an all Democratic delegation in the House. NM 02, which was R+14 in 2020 is now D+4. Born in El Paso TX, with roots in Mexico, he grew up hunting and fishing with his grandfather. Now a city councilor in Las Cruces and a leading conservationist in the state, his conservation efforts are in the context of providing communities of color with sustainable opportunities, outdoor experiences for children and youth, and combatting the climate crisis.
The incumbent, Yvette Herrell, is a member of the Cherokee nation and a realtor. She lost her race in 2018, a year when she was criticized for failing to disclose her company’s contracts with state agencies. She ousted the Democratic incumbent in 2020 when the district was overwhelmingly Republican. She may be vulnerable to a young, bright, conservationist.
3. Greg Landsman OH 01. Ohio is gerrymandered, but somehow, not OH 01. Democrats saw the R+3 lean as an opportunity and recruited Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman. The son of teachers, he graduated from Ohio University and has a Theology Master’s from Harvard. He directed faith and community-based initiatives for the most recent Democratic Governor of Ohio and was Executive Director of the Greater Cincinnati anti-poverty business partnership Strive. He sought comprehensive preschool education, created a venture fund supporting children’s education in Ohio and one for Ethiopian Jews in Israel.
After losing his first City Council race in 2013, Greg Landsman tried boxing. Now he uses boxing as a metaphor for politics — the need to jab, to move, and to act quickly, the need for perseverance and grit. In the City Council he is, nevertheless, a peacemaker. Steve Chabot, also lost his first race for the Cincinnati City Council. He has lost once since 1996 during his career representing OH 01. He opposed certifying the 2020 Presidential election, having accepted Trump’s claims of fraud. Accountability for rejection of democracy should come at the ballot box. Greg Landsman is a strong enough candidate to bring Chabot to account. (199)
4. Heather Mizeur MD 01. She is a candidate for MD 01, an R+8 district which had been R+16. From downstate Illinois, she attended, but did not graduate from the University of Illinois. She headed for Washington and served as a Congressional aide, as Executive Director of the Community Health Centers national association, and as director of domestic policy for John Kerry’s presidential campaign. After the campaign she was elected to Maryland’s House of Delegates. She shared leadership in increasing education funding, regulating fracking, and making health care and family planning available for young adults. After an unsuccessful 2014 run for governor she endorsed Chris Van Hollen for the US Senate over Donna Edwards, largely based on his effective constituent service.
Heather Mizeur remains the front runner for the Democratic nomination against six-term Congressman Andy Harris. Her run was spurred by Harris’s behavior on January 6. He opposed counting Electoral College votes and, though he denies it, apparently got into a fight with another Member of Congress. A week later, he attempted to bring a gun into the Capitol. When he first ran for office, he promised to serve no more than six terms. Hold him to that promise. (199)
5. Kermit Jones CA 03. He is a candidate for CA 03, an R+8 district created out of the R+15 CA 04. The son of a Michigan farmer and a home health nurse who later lost their farm because of medical expenses, he attended Historically Black Clark Atlanta and nearby Georgia Tech to get two BAs. Internships in Europe and India and two degrees at Duke – MD and JD — followed. Influenced by 9/11, he joined the Navy as a flight surgeon in Iraq. He returned for a health policy Master’s from Columbia, then worked in India. He returned to a medical practice, was briefly an associate at a law firm, and served as White House Fellow – all in Washington. Heading to California, where his wife was from, he stopped to practice medicine in Chicago for several years before completing the trip west to a practice in Northern California.
The vulnerability of America’s health care system led him to politics. The incumbent, Tom McClintock, a member of the conservative maverick Republican Study Committee will probably run in another district. If he does, Kevin Kiley, a too clever by half assemblyman and graduate of Harvard and Yale Law School will probably be his opponent. (199)
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NRDC) https://democraticredistricting.com Led by Eric Holder
The Lincoln Project https://lincolnproject.us. Ex Republicans with tough messaging.
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Support Democrats. Sadly, Republicans have become enemies of democracy. The contrast between these candidates and their Republican opponents is a perfect example of this circumstance.
