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February 4th , 2025 Len’s Political Note #705 Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger
2025 General Election
Abigail Spanberger
Before I begin, let me quote former US Attorney for Northern Alabama and blogger Joyce Vance:
“Today has been about a month’s worth of news, none of it good. It’s clear that Trump is trying to transform the federal workforce into an army of Trump loyalists and align the work that is supposed to be on behalf of the American people with his values, which is to say racism, misogyny, kleptocracy, and the rest of Project 2025. All of this is deeply concerning, as is his effort to deceive Americans about what’s going on”.
William Hubbell and others describe what Trump is doing or is about to do – fire hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of people he sees as potentially disloyal from the Department of Justice, the FBI, and elsewhere in the government as a political coup. Republican Members of Congress seem indifferent. Democratic Members of Congress are in the minority. One place where there is potential for resistance is in the states. Virginia and New Jersey will elect new governors in 2025. If Abigail Spanberger can win her election, she will flip the leadership of the state, this state which borders the District of Columbia, from Republican to Democrat. Today’s Political Note is intended to encourage you to help her win that election in November.
In 2018, the Commonwealth of Virginia elected three women to Congress. None of them remain in Congress.
Elaine Luria was a retired Navy veteran. She had earned the rank of Commander and led an Assault Craft which had a 400 combat ready sailors. Luria won reelection in 2020, but lost to Republican Jen Kiggans in 2022. Jennifer Wexton had been an attorney and a state senator. She did not run for reelection in 2024. Abigail Spanberger had been a postal inspector and a CIA operations officer. She did not run for reelection in 2024 either.
In December, 2024, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton joined an AP reporter to reminisce about their experience in Congress. Wexton had developed progressive- supranuclear palsy. Similar to Parkinson’s, it is a neurological condition that becomes worse and worse ending in death. At this stage, only two years or so after her diagnosis, Wexton cannot speak clearly or walk without assistance. She uses a tablet which speaks out loud when she points to letters on a keyboard.
With the assistance of the tablet’s artificial intelligence program, Wexton spoke about the assistance Spanberger gave her. Spanberger would style her hair, a difficult task Wexton explained. For nearly an hour and a half “Abigail would put various potions in my hair and dry it with a round brush…It was wonderful, I felt so pampered.” Crying and laughing at the same time, Spanberger looked at her and said “you have so much hair.”
We forget that Members of Congress are human beings, that Members of Congress have vulnerabilities as we have. For all of us, a good part of life is a matter of good luck and bad luck. Sometimes people make their own good luck. Jennifer Wexton had run for Congress successfully after losing a race for the County Commonwealth Attorney. Her debilitating health condition is simply bad fortune.
Abigail Spanberger’s family, with a propensity for choosing places with colorful names, moved from Red Bank, New Jersey to Short Pump, Virginia when Abigail was 13 years old. Her dad, a local cop, had been hired to work in law enforcement for the US Postal Service. She went to local schools, but had the advantage of serving as a page for Senator Chuck Robb (Lyndon Johnson’s son-in-law, for those not old enough to remember).
Abigail Spanberger learned about service from her dad and about the national legislature through her time as a page. She probably developed her love of languages in her high school’s Spanish immersion program. Like many women, she got seriously involved in politics after Donald Trump was elected president the first time.
After graduating from the University of Virginia, she joined what might be thought of as a German business immersion program – a joint IUPU (that’s Indiana U and Purdue U) and Gisma University of Applied Sciences MBA program in Berlin.
Then she came home. Finding a job was harder than she expected. She did some substitute teaching at the Islamic Saudi Academy, then got a full time job as a postal inspector for the US Postal Service. Did she learn about the job from her dad?
The job at the postal service was perfect as preparation for applying to the CIA. After a few years during which time she worked on money laundering and narcotics cases, she was ready to step into international issues.
She was hired in 2006 by the CIA as a case officer. She tells us that she worked undercover for the entire time that she worked there. She collected intelligence. She managed assets (human assets, not bank accounts.). She was involved in programs to combat terrorism. And she had a focus on nuclear proliferation.
Eight years was enough. She left the CIA in 2014. She and her husband were in Virginia in 2014. Beginning in 2011, he was a software engineer for the Exelis Corporation and then the Harris Corporation. She went to work for the educational consulting firm that was a product of the merger of the Education Advisory Board (EAB) and Royall & Company. EAB had focused on helping universities manage enrollment and institutional strategy. Royall added financial aid and alumni fundraising to the mix. In 2015 the merged company added GradesFirst which focused on technology designed to help students succeed. And finally EAB was purchased by an investment firm to operate its original focus on its own.
Abigail Spanberger might have had a lucrative career in this expanding world, but the 2016 election happened. Like hundreds, perhaps thousands of women, the election of Donald Trump spurred her to consider running for office.
In 2014, David Brat was a professor at Randolph-Macon College and head of the BB&T Moral Foundations of Capitalism program there. The program was dedicated to spreading the wisdom of Ayn Rand and other proponents of free enterprise. One way for him to spread the word was to run for congress. He already had a failed campaign for the Virginia House of Delegates. The incumbent of Virginia’s seventh congressional district, where Brat lived, was a Republican and he was not small potatoes. Eric Cantor was the House Majority Leader.
There was no reasonable possibility that David Brat would defeat Eric Cantor in a primary. I say that without even taking into account Cantor’s ability to raise and spend $5 million to Brat’s $200,000.
Miracles happen. Brat won the primary. Because this was a Republican district, Brat won election in 2014 and again, the year that Donald Trump was first elected President, in 2016.
In 2018, Abigail Spanberger would run against the incumbent Republican, David Brat. The proximate cause for her to run for Congress was the House’s successful vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act. It would take more research than I can undertake, but my guess is that a dozen candidates for Congress in 2018 had the same motivation.
Abigail Spanberger had one serious opponent in the Democratic primary, Dan Ward, a former Marine. Ward had outspent her, but just by a little bit – about $950,000 to about $880,000. He was conscious that something was happening; that 2018 might just be the year of the woman in Virginia politics and in national politics. Abigail Spanberger cleaned up in the primary, getting nearly 75% of the vote.
Trump’s consigliere, Steve Bannon, described the race for Virginia 07 as a bellwether for the country. The Republicans attacked her. When they sought information about her from the Post Office, her application for security clearance was “accidentally” released. It included information about her substitute teaching at the Islamic Saudi Academy. That information led Repubicans to target her as an advocate for terrorism. Some have suggested that the campaign claims could be traced to the House Speaker Paul Ryan.
It was difficult to persuade Virginia 07 voters that a former CIA case officer was an advocate of terrorism. Abigail Spanberger overcame the Republican orientation of the district and the smear campaign to win by about 7,000 votes – 50.3-48.4.
The people of VA 07 were right. Abigail Spanberger was not a radical. She was particularly critical of how Donald Trump reacted to the George Floyd killing and to the protests that followed that killing. She was also critical of her own party, particularly uncomfortable with calls to defund the police and, in 2021, was critical of Joe Biden’s sweeping proposals, saying that no one had elected him to be FDR.
She was in the right spot for her electorate. She won again in 2020 by 1.8% of the vote and again in 2022 by 4.6% of the vote. When she announced she would not run in 2024 because she was planning to run for governor in 2025, she was replaced by another Democrat. Eugene Vindman, a retired Lt. Colonel, the twin brother and advisor of the whistleblower who triggered the first Trump impeachment. Vindman won the primary, defeating seven opponents, gaining 49% of the vote with a margin of 34% over the second place finisher. He defeated his Republican opponent by 2.7%.
Perhaps Abigail Spanberger changed the orientation of her district. Or the district changed on its own. Either way, Vindman’s margin of victory resembled Spanberger’s victories in the previous three elections.
Can Abigail Spanberger win the election in November? Can she replace Republican Glenn Youngkin? She does not have an issues section in her website. She does have 135 Virginia past and present Virginia political figures who endorse her. Democrats to the left of her in Virginia, among them Congressman Bobby Scott, have questions about that, enough questions so that Scott is considering a primary run. The filing deadline is April 3 and the primary is June 17. Delaying as he has, it seems clear to me that he is non planning a run; he is encouraging Abigal Spanberger not to move too far to the right in her campaign.
Abigail Spanberger is a moderate among Virginia Democrats. She will not change that. She believes in the importance of working with potential opponents to achieve agreement. She prefers working on meat and potatoes issues rather than the hot button issues of the culture war. She particularly points out the Social Security Fairness Act success which eliminates social security penalties for those in certain states who worked in the public sector (I am one of the beneficiaries of this new law). She is, however, capable of fighting – fighting Trump if necessary, even leading the fight if necessary.
For instance, the Anti-Abortion people don’t like her. They give her an F. On gun safety, she says that gun violence is the most important threat to kids. On climate issues, Conservation Voters gave her a 95% rating,
To some extent, like most moderate Democrats, she differs from the Democratic left, except on a very few issues, only in language and tone. She explains: “We want to talk about funding social services, and ensuring good engagement in community policing, let’s talk about what we are for. And we need to not ever use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again.”
She would not put herself in a position for her Republican opponent to call her a socialist and for that claim to have any basis. Her opponent will be Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Sears was born in Jamaica, grew up in the Bronx, earned a Community College Associates Degree, a BA from Old Dominion, and an MA from the Pat Robertson founded Christian Regent University. She joined the Marines at 19 and stayed for three years. After the Marines, she ran a Salvation Army Homeless Shelter.
In 2001, Winsome Sears defeated a Democratic incumbent for a seat in the House of Delegates. In her term of office, she advocated the use of public funds to support families homeschooling their children or sending their children to private school. Instead of running for reelection, she focused on running for Congress against Bobby Scott – the Congressman who is pushing Abigail Spanberger to the left. Sears lost, opened an appliance and plumbing repair store, and, after a hiatus, turned again to politics. She ran for the US Senate, but could not win the Republican primary as a write in candidate. In 2020, she was National Chair of Black Americans to Re-Elect the President. In 2021, at the Republican convention, it took her five ranked-choice ballots to win the nomination for Lt. Governor.
In Virginia, candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor do not run as a team. In 2021, Winsome Sears was elected by a 50.7 to 49.2 margin, Youngkin was elected governor by a 50.6-48.6 margin, and the Republican candidate for Attorney General, Jason Miyares was elected by a 50.4-49.6 over the incumbent.
No one expects that the 2025 race for governor will be anything other than close. Like Abigail Spanberger, Winsome Sears does not have an issues section on her campaign website. We know, however, she is very conservative. Not only is she anti-abortion, she argues that once a woman is pregnant, the baby is not her body. She has been an opponent of LGBTQ rights. At an event after a school shooting in Virginia, she talked about gangs, the prevalence of bail, and the extent to which gun owners were law-abiding.
No one is suggesting that the 2025 election for governor of Virginia will be anything but close. DONATE to Abigail Spanberger. Her election will be a bellwether for 2026.
Spring Elections are Coming up. Now would be a good time to Donate money.
Wisconsin – Election: Primary, February 18, General Election April 1
State Supreme Court
Support Democratic County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford against former Attorney General Brad Schimel. There is no primary for this position. Currently Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority. Susan Crawford is running to replace a Democratic justice who is retiring. A Republican win would give the court a 4-3 Republican majority. This race is crucial for preserving the right to abortion in Wisconsin, for preserving an un-gerrymandered state legislature and eliminating voter suppression. See Len’s Political Note #684
State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Support Democratic incumbent Jill Underly in the primary and in the general election. Jill underly serves as a bulwark against right wing culture war positions. See Len’s Political Note #693.
Florida and New York
Florida: Primary January 28, Special Election April 1.
New York’s election will be scheduled after Elise Stefanic is confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations.
By the time Florida and New York have their elections, Republicans could have a 217-215 majority. Does that mean that a victory in all three elections would create a 218-217 Democratic majority. Accurate, but unlikely. All three districts are heavily Republican. Keeping the Republicans below 60% would be a kind of triumph and encourage Democrats in their planning for 2026 Congressional elections. It is worth donating to reduce the Republican margin and to take the chance that we could get lucky and win one or two of these race.
Florida 01: Gay Valimont is the Democratic nominee. Gay Valimont is the former head of the Florida Chapter of Mom’s Demand Action, a gun safety organization. She has returned to politics after two family tragedies. She understands how Republican her district is. She is both courageous and willing to give it her all in a very tough cause. Her opponent is the former CFO for the state of Florida. He proposed using Florida tax money to defend Donald Trump in his criminal trials. DONATE to Gay Valimont. See Len’s Political Note #694.
Florida 06: Josh Weil is the Democratic nominee. He is a teacher of middle school boys who have not been able to remain in typical classrooms, a job that may be even tougher than seeking election as a Democrat in FL 06. Originally exercised by the 2020 Democratic losses in Florida, he describes his commitment to his own children and his students as energizing his campaign. His opponent is Randy Fine, wealthy from the gaming industry, an opponent of rights for members of the LGBTQ community, an opponent of abortion, and is firmly convinced the God saved Donald Trump so he could be president. DONATE TO Josh Weil. See Len’s Political Note #704.
New York 21: Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a primary. According to New York law the County chair or chairs selects party nominees when there is a vacancy. In this case, there are 15 small counties in rural New York. We simply have to wait to see how this works out.
The Other 2025 Governor Election: New Jersey
Unlike Virginia, where one Democrat is running and one Republican is running, I count six Democrats and four Republicans. We will know much more about the shape of the election after the June 10 primaries.