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January 2nd, 2025 Len’s Political Note #696 8 US Senate Seats for which the Republican incumbent has announced a run in 2026
2026 General Election
The Republicans have seats to defend.
Typically, I write notes encouraging readers to donate. At this stage, we rarely know who the Democratic candidates for these seats will be. Even when we know some of the challengers, we do not know who will emerge as the Democratic candidate. This early, we can speculate about improbable Democratic challengers.
Think about that.
Republicans
Alabama
Charles Barkley
No Democrats who have expressed interest yet. Among the elected Democrats there are Members of Congress, Terri Sewell and Shomari Figures (newly elected in November); mayors Steven Reed, Randall Woodfin, and Walt Maddox; State House and State Senate minority leaders Anthony Daniels and Bobby Singleton. None are likely to run for the Senate. Even though the Republican incumbent sometimes seems unaware of the impact of what he does, none of these Democrats are likely to defeat him. If I were in charge of the DSCC, I would have a conversation with outspoken former NBA star Charles Barkley. Born in Alabama, he played basketball for Auburn, the university where Tommy Tuberville was the head football coach. Long ago, he switched from Republican to Democrat and, because Democrats did not do enough, to Independent. For now, the best bet is to donate to the Alabama Democratic Party.
The Republican incumbent has announced he is running. No primary opponents have surfaced. Tommy Tuberville is 70 years old and has a BBS from Southern State College (now Southern Arkansas University). A former college football coach, his longest stints were at Miami where he was an assistant coach for three national champions and Auburn, a state university where he was head coach for nine years.
A Trump loyalist, Tuberville moved from Florida to Alabama to run for the Senate in 2020. He defeated former Senator and former Trump Attorney General who Trump was angry at Jeff Sessions in the primary and incumbent Democrat Doug Jones in the general by a 60.1 to 39.7 margin. In the Senate, he angered Republicans as well as Democrats holding up military promotions in order to get the military to stop providing paid leave and travel reimbursement when necessary to service members for reproductive care including abortions.
Iowa
Rob Sand
While no Democratic challengers have arisen for 2026, one Republican has – former Libertarian and retired Navy guy Joshua Smith. Two other Republicans, Attorney General Brenna Bird and radio host Steve Deace, have thought aloud about the seat while the incumbent has been struggling with whether or not to support Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently holding a constitutional office, might be a strong candidate. A former attorney in the State Attorney General office, he was elected auditor in 2018 and again in 2022. It is possible that he would rather run for governor in 2026 than for US Senator. Mayors of Iowa’s largest cities are potential Democratic candidates for the Senate. Meanwhile, donate to the Iowa Democratic Party and encourage Rob Sand to run for the Senate. .
The Republican incumbent has announced that she is running for reelection in 2026. Fifty four years old with a BA from Iowa State and a MPA from Columbus State, Joni Ernst is running for what would be her third term. She completed ROTC at Iowa State and joined the reserves after graduation. In the reserves, she saw military action, including a full year in Kuwait commanding a Transportation Company. Returning home, she was elected county auditor in 2004 and 2008, then state senator in 2011 and 2012. In 2014, she was elected to the US Senate. Ernst’ principal departure from being a conventional conservative Republican was pressing the Defense Department to stop sexual assault in the military a crime of which she had been a victim. Considered vulnerable in 2020, she defeated her Democratic opponent 51.7 to 45.2.
Louisiana
John Bel Edwards
No Democrats have expressed an interest in this seat yet. In a world where Democrats were competitive in state wide races in Louisiana, former Congressman and leading advisor to Joe Biden, Cedric Richmond would be a probable candidate. For 2026, the only opponent for the Republican incumbent who has emerged is State Treasurer John Fleming. Former two-term conservative Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards could run a competitive campaign – if he is interested. Until we know more, donate to the Louisiana Democratic Party.
Sixty-seven year old Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who has a BS and an MD degree from Louisiana State has a Republican challenger. More than most politicians, more than most doctors, Cassidy devoted a large part of his career to ensuring the availability of health care for low-income people. Cassidy is a former Democrat – a supporter of Massachusetts Democrats like Michael Dukakis and Paul Tsongas. He explained his switch to the Republican Party saying there was not longer a place in the Democratic party for conservatives.
Elected a State rep in 2006, Cassidy was elected to Congress in 2008. He was a supporter of deep-water drilling and of tax cuts. He opposed the Affordable Care Act, insisting that it would increase the cost of medical care. Relevant for the primary opponent(s) he will face, Bill Cassidy is a severe critic of Donald Trump. He was one of seven Republicans to vote to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial. When Trump was indicted for mishandling classified documents, Cassidy urged Trump to withdraw from the Presidential race. It makes you wonder. Despite Cassidy’s opposition to the Affordable Care and other Democratic achievements, would Louisiana Democrats look for a way to nominate William Cassidy for US Senator? Louisiana has abandoned their bipartisan top two elections for more conventional partisan primaries, but still require a majority in the primary to avoid a runoff. Donate to the Louisiana Democratic Party.
Maine
Janet Mills
No Democrats have announced. There are possibilities. Seventy-Six year old term limited governor Janet Mills could run, though she is four years older than the incumbent. The President of the State Senate could run as could Congresswoman Chellie Pingree. Conservative Democrat Jared Golden is unlikely. He has promised not to ever run against Incumbent Senator Susan Collins based on his having worked for her after he escaped from post-war PTSD. Help put the Democrats in a position to defeat the incumbent. Donate to the Maine Democratic Party
Is 72 year old incumbent Susan Collins vulnerable? Some suggest this graduate of St. Lawrence University is vulnerable to a conservative in a primary. She was a staff assistant to moderate Republican William Cohen. Before being elected Senator from Maine, she had not won an election. She was appointed as a committee staff director in the US Senate, appointed Commissioner of a regulatory agency in Maine, appointed head of the regional office of the US Small Business Administration housed in Boston, appointed deputy state treasurer of Massachusetts. She moved backed to Maine in 1994 and lost a run for governor that year. Out of office, she founded a Center for Family Business at Husson University in Maine. Then in 1996, she was elected US Senator from Maine. As an incumbent, she keeps on winning elections.
As a Senator, she has voted with Democrats often enough to be considered a moderate Republican, but not often enough for many Democrats. For instance, in 2017, she opposed repealing the Affordable Care Act, but supported the massive Trump tax cut. She opposed the appointment of Amy Conan Barrett to the Supreme Court, but was the pivotal vote in favor of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Does that record ensure a Republican challenge? Can she defeat another Democrat? She was elected in 2020 by a 51 to 42.4 margin.
Mississippi
Ty Pinkins
No Democrats have announced. Only 47 years old, former Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley ran a strong campaign for governor in 2023, losing by only three points. Could he run for the US Senate in 2026? Seventy-six year old Bennie Thompson is Mississippi’s strongest national Democratic voice; he is not going to leave the House. Running for the Senate in 2024 with few resources, military veteran and activist Attorney Ty Pinkins lost, gaining only 36% of the vote. For now, I can only suggest that you donate to the Mississippi Democratic Party
The incumbent Republican has announced that she is running. Cindy Hyde-Smith, 65, a community college graduate with a BA from the University of Southern Mississippi worked as a lobbyist on behalf of safe highways and health care. She served as state director for the National Coalition for Healthcare in three southern states including Mississippi. Elected as a Democratic Mississippi state Senator in 2000, she changed parties in 2010 explaining that she was a conservative and the Republicans had become the conservative party. In 2011, she was elected the State Agriculture Commissioner. Governor Phil Bryant appointed her to the US Senate in 2018 to replace Thad Cochran who retired due to illness. She was elected to that position in a special election in 2018 and elected again, in 2020, defeating former Congressman and former Bill Clinton cabinet member Mike Espy 54-44.
Since becoming a Republican, Cindy Hyde-Smith has taken pains to be conservative on social issues. For instance, as Agriculture Commissioner, she only allowed a same sex commitment ceremony at a state museum based on advice from the then Attorney General, a Democrat. Subsequently, she sought a change in the law that would permit the Commissioner to prohibit such a ceremony.
Her campaign for the Senate and votes in the Senate have reflected both cultural and financial conservatism or worse. During the special election, she remarked about a supporter at whose ranch she was appearing: “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be in the front row.” That statement caused a fuss. Among the bits of information unearthed as a result of that fuss was that she had attended a private, white academy intended to avoid school integration and had sent her daughter to the same school. Another unearthed bit was that her husband was related to a man widely believed to have murdered a civil rights activist in 1955.
Mississippi has changed some in 70 years, Maybe activist attorney Ty Pinkins should run again for the US Senate, This time, if he announces early enough and with enough preparation, he can do it with resources from us and from the Democratic Party.
Nebraska
Jean Stothert
No Democrat has announced for this race yet. In 2024, State Senator Tony Vargas lost his effort to be Nebraska’s only Democratic Member of Congress by less than 2 points, by less than 6,000 votes. Winning election in the whole state would be harder. In 2024, Independent union leader Dan Osborn lost his effort to be elected to the US Senate from Nebraska by 9 points, roughly 86,000 votes. He ran with little organizational support, but a lot of goodwill from Democrats around the country. Omaha’s 70 year old mayor, Jean Stothert has announced a run for her fourth term as mayor. The election is on May 15, 2025. If reelected, would she consider a run for the US Senate? Meanwhile, Donate to the Nebraska Democratic Party.
Any of the Nebraska Democrats would face a formidable opponent in the sixty year old Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. A graduate of the University of Chicago, from which he was awarded a BA and an MBA in marketing and finance, the son of the founder of TD Ameritrade, his net worth has been estimated in the range of $170 million. That figure should not include the funds in the family foundation.
With his pile made, having worked his way up in the family business to CEO, Ricketts thought he would try politics. In 2006, at the age of 42, he ran for governor of his home state, Nebraska, but lost to conservative Democrat Ben Nelson 36 – 64.
Instead, along with the family he leads and funds from the family foundation, Pete Ricketts bought the Chicago Cubs in 2009. In 2015, after Ricketts shifted his focus back to politics, the Cubs won the World Series, their first since early in the 20th century, His other post-2006 hobby was the Platte Institute of Economic Research, which he founded and, until 2013, directed.
He ran for governor in 2014, squeaked by the primary, and won the general handily (outspending the Democrat $6 million to $2.5 million). Over the course of two terms, he took extreme positions on the death penalty and other criminal punishments, on immigrants, on abortion, on property tax reductions, and on covid relief. In 2023, the newly elected governor, crony Jim Pillen, appointed Ricketts to the US Senate to fill a vacancy. In 2024, Ricketts won a special election 64-36 after winning the primary by 12 points. In 2026, he is running for a six-year term.
North Carolina
Wiley Nickel
One Democrat has announced for the US Senate – former Congressman Wiley Nickel. Forty-nine year old Nickel is so credible a candidate it is possible that no other serious candidates will enter the race. I wrote the following (lightly edited) about him in anticipation of his running for reelection to Congress in 2024. He withdrew from the race because gerrymandering had ensured that North Carolina would gain three seats, among them Nickel’s.
Wiley Nickel’s wife brought him to North Carolina. Otherwise, he would be a Californian. Nickel’s great, great, great grandfather owned much of central California. Henry Miller was a German who emigrated to New York City in 1846. He Americanized his name and moved on to California in 1850. A butcher in San Francisco, he and a partner purchased Spanish land grants and raised cattle. Eventually, he owned 1.4 million acres and controlled more. He owned almost as much land in Oregon and Nevada as in California.
Wiley Nickel’s mother’s life was different. He told Jewish Insider ‘The Jewish community, their story is my story. My mother is Jewish. My great-grandfather fled Poland prior to the Holocaust and I would not be here today if he had stayed in Poland.’ Harry Sott worked on the assembly line for the Ford Motor Company. In 1940, 48 years old, he brought his wife and family to California and, in that land of milk and honey, began manufacturing textiles. His son, Herbert, Wiley Nickel’s grandfather, got a law degree, but the firms he wanted to work in were not hiring Jews. Herbert prospered in the textile business.
Jim Nickel’s grandson and Harry Sott’s granddaughter somehow met and married. Although Wiley Nickel recalls celebrating Passover and the High Holidays with his mother’s family, his family was not Jewish. They were Episcopalians, part of California’s upper crust.
In Chicago with his mother after his father died young, Wiley Nickel went to the Francis W. Parker School – a private day school. From there he went to Tulane in New Orleans and, after working for Al Gore but before his unsuccessful run for the State Senate, Nickel went to Pepperdine’s Law School. At or through Pepperdine connections, he met a young North Carolina woman — Caroline Edwards. A graduate of Cardinal Gibbons High School in Raleigh, NC, she had stayed in North Carolina to get her BA from the North Carolina at Chapel HIll. She went west for law school – to Pepperdine, a distinguished law school that was part of a Catholic University.
Wiley Nickel returned to national politics in 2008, He was a campaign staffer for Barack Obama and, after the campaign, worked for Obama’s White House until 2012 initially as a staffer and then as a consultant. Shortly after Barack Obama was elected in 2008, Caroline Edwards and Wiley Nickel moved to North Carolina. Wiley Nickel continued working for Obama, but from a remote location.
In 2009, Caroline Edwards Nickel became a corporate officer and co-owner of the family jewelry business in North Carolina. In 2010, she became an associate at a law firm in Apex, North Carolina. Wiley Nickel opened a law practice in 2011 in Cary, NC. For the long term, his interest was politics. He spent more than $350,000 in 2018 to win State Senate District 16. He replaced Josh Stein, a Democrat who ran for and was elected North Carolina’s Attorney General. Now Stein is about to be sworn in as North Carolina’s next governor.
In 2022, Wiley Nickel began his campaign for a swing Congressional seat created by the then Democratic dominated State Supreme Court’s map. He advocated for fairness in taxes and raising corporate rates, for reducing the tax burden on individuals and increasing minimum pay through a $15 per hour minimum wage. He supported efforts to end voter suppression and, echoing his role in the State Senate, advocated support for public education. He won his election by 8,838 votes. If asked for a brief description, he might have called himself a safe and reasonable Democrat. I would describe him as a Democrat who can win in a swing district or even in a district with a slight Republican lean.”
Wiley Nickel is a Democrat who can win statewide in North Carolina. It is early, but consider a donation to Wiley Nickel now. This is not to say Nickel is the only possible Democratic candidate. Termed out sixty-seven year old Governor Roy Cooper has been considered a strong possibility for a run for the US Senate.
The incumbent Republican is Thom Tillis. Sixty-four years old, with an online degree from the University of Maryland that he earned when he was in his thirties, he married his girlfriend and joined the military right out of high school. The marriage was complicated. They divorced, remarried, and divorced again. So was the military. A severely injured hand in an automobile accident led him to an honorable discharge from the Air Force. He had what most people would think of as a terrible childhood. His family moved 17 times before he graduated from high school. Tillis says it helped him be adaptable.
Tillis is adaptable. He made himself popular in high school – class president, most likely to succeed. Finished with the Air Force, he went to work for the Provident Insurance Company. Using Wang Laboratories to computerize Provident’s records, he was hired by Wang. As Wang declined (it’s founder and director died in 1990, the company went bankrupt in 1992), Tillis moved on to Price Waterhouse. By 1996, Tillis had become a Price Waterhouse partner, by 1998, he had moved on behalf of what had become Pricewaterhousecoopers to Cornelius, North Carolina. In 2002, Tillis went to work for IBM, which had purchased Pricewaterhousecoopers,
By 2002, Tillis began his political career. He was elected to the town park board. The next year he ran for town commissioner. After a two year term, he was elected to the North Carolina General Assembly in 2006. He left IBM in 2009, became Chair of the Republican Caucus in 2010. And then Speaker in 2013. In that role, the majority redrew the tax code and the legislative districts. Further suppressing the Democratic vote, he led efforts to limit early voting and invalidate votes undertaken in the wrong precinct. His aide researched the effect of photo IDs and found that would further suppress the Democratic Black vote. His aide’s research, however, served as a basis for overturning North Carolina’s photo ID legislation by the federal courts. Other positions on which he had a leadership role were reductions in the earned income tax credit program and rejection of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act.
Tillis was able to present himself as, if not a Republican moderate, at least as an opponent to the Tea Party Movement as he won the nomination for the US Senate in a primary against two Tea Party associated candidates. He defeated incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan 48.8 to 47.3. He was assisted in that effort by using an innovative technique — microtargeting specific audiences with messages tailored specifically for specific groups – all, it is claimed, illegally assisted by Facebook. Tillis and Hagan were both assisted by millions of dollars in outside spending in this campaign.
Tillis became a Trump supporter, notwithstanding his previous criticism Trump because of the Access Hollywood tapes. Tillis was anti-abortion. Consistent with his state legislature behavior, he opposed gay rights. He supported the use of renewable energy and offshore drilling along the Atlantic coast. He was among the largest recipients of campaign funds from the NRA, voted with his colleagues to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, but proposed a less generous plan to help DACA immigrants than the DREAM Act. He won a very close election in 2020, made possible, perhaps, by his opponent having to acknowledge, a few weeks before the election date, an extramarital affair. Tillis won 48.7 to 46.9.
I will say it again. It is not too early to donate to Wiley Nickel.
Texas
The great state of Texas has a collection of Democrats who have tried to flip a Republican seat and failed. In November 2024, Congressman Colin Allred lost to Ted Cruz by 8.5 points. In 2022, Congressman Beto O’Rourke lost a race for governor to Greg Abbott by 11 points. In 2020, MJ Hegar, combat veteran and author of Shoot Like a Girl, lost a Senate race to John Cornyn by 8.5 points. Is there someone who could flip a Republican Senate seat in 2026?
There are Republicans preparing to run against the incumbent: Podcaster Keith Allen, School Board Member Rennie Mann, and Activist Leo Wyatt. There is one Democrat, Pastor Tracy Andrus, who was an independent write-in candidate for the Senate in 2022 who has signed up. James Talarico, a well-known state senator, seems to be more interested in running for governor than for the US Senate. The same is true for the former head of logistics for Amazon, Dave Clark.
Texas is a big state. They should be able to come up with a Democrat who is daring enough and has enough of his or her own resources or connections with those who will put resources toward a campaign. The tantalizing potential for returning Texas to the Democratic Party will attract someone. I just don’t know who. Perhaps someone who graduated from the University of Texas.
John Cornyn is 72, the son of an Air Force Colonel. While his father was stationed in Japan, he attended and graduated from the American School in Japan. Returning to Texas, he graduated from Trinity University in Texas and a JD from St. Mary’s University. While in Washington, he earned an LLM from the University of Virginia.
Seven years after Cornyn got his law degree, he was elected a district judge in San Antonio. Six years later, he was elected to the Texas Supreme Court. And eight years after that, in 1998, he was elected Attorney General, Texas’s first Republican elected to that post since Reconstruction. As AG, he investigated internet crime, Medicare and Medicaid fraud, but was extremely slow to investigate the drug arrests and convictions of 49 people in the tiny town of Tulia, 90% of the conveicted were Black, based solely on the testimony of a single narcotics agent.
In 2002, based on his record as Attorney General, Cornyn was elected handily as US Senator. Since then, he kept on getting elected. 2020 was his closest campaign, but not very close. He defeated veteran HJ Hegar. I have no better suggestion than to donate to the Texas Democratic Party.
Let me sum up
Support former Congressman Wiley Nickel in North Carolina. Encourage Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand to run for the Senate. Encourage Governor Janet Mills of Maine to run for the US Senate. Encourage conservative former governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana to run for the US Senate. Finally, wait until spring. After she is reelected, encourage Omaha, Nebraska, mayor Jean Stothert to run for the US Senate.
Those are five Republican Senate Seats worth trying to flip and five Democratic candidates with the experience and the capacity to flip those seats. This is early. Other candidates may emerge. Only Nickel has actually announced a run for Senate.
