Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
OHIO Every Non Judicial Statewide elected office is held by a Republican except one of the two US Senate seats, which is not up for a vote this year.
US Senate
Political Note $392 Tim Ryan vs whichever wealthy Republican is nominated for this Open Republican Seat.
Governor
Either Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley
vs incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine
Downballot
Secretary of State: Park Forest City Councilor Chelsea Clark vs incumbent Republican Frank LaRose
Attorney General: State Rep Jeff Crossman vs incumbent Republican Dave Yost.
Ohio Supreme Court. Now 4-3 Republican, the retiring Republican Chief Justice has sided with the Democrats on redistricting
Political Note #444 Ohio Supreme Court Chief. Associate Justice Brunner vs Republican Associate Justice Sharon Kennedy
Political Note #444 Ohio Supreme Court Attorney Marilyn Zayas vs Republican Association Justice Pat DeWine (son of the Governor)
Political Note #444 Ohio Supreme Court: Common Pleas Court Judge Terri Jamison vs Republicvan Associate Justice Patrick Fisher
US House of Representatives. Recommended by the not-so-independent commission and voted by the legislature, the state Supreme Court has rejected two alternatives so far and is likely to reject the third. Nevertheless, here are competitive races.
OH 01 Political Note #452 Cincinnati City Councilor Greg Landsman to defeat Republican Incumbent in this R+3 District that has become a toss-up because of redistricting.
OH 09 Political Note #430 Long time incumbent Marcy Kaptur to defeat one of three Republicans seeking the nomination for this District reconstructed to be an R+8 lean Republican district
OH 10 Either Producer Baxter Stapleton or 2020 candidate Desiree Times to defeat Republican Incumbent Mike Turner in this R+9 lean Republican district
OH 13. Five Democrats are seeking the nomination as are five Republicans for this Open Democratic seat currently held by Tim Ryan who is running for the US Senate. Redistricting has left the District with an R+4 lean, roughly a toss up.
Note links: Political Note links are to Lenspoliticalnotes. Links with names are to candidates’ websites.
031122 Political Note #452 Greg Landsman OH 01
2022 General Election
Greg Landsman https://landsmanforcongress.com could win this seat.
Are Ohio Republicans angry at OH 01 Congressman Steve Chabot? Their so-called Independent Redistricting Commission and the Ohio legislature created new districts for 2022 and the next decade. Steve Chabot’s new OH 01 has a R+3 lean. That’s down from its previous R+8 Lean.
Look at where the Republican legislature left other Republican incumbents:
OH 02 Brian Wenstrop. R+40
OH 04 Jim Jordan R+38
OH 05 Bob Latta R+26
OH 07 Bob Gibbs R+23
OH 08 Warren Davidson R+28
OH 10 Mike Turner R+9
OH 12 Troy Balderson R+35
OH 14 Dave Joyce R+16
OH 15 Mike Carey R+11
On top of that, two Democratic districts got reversed:
OH 09 Democrat Marcy Kaptur R+8
OH 13 US Sen candidate Tim Ryan R+4
These districts will change before the 2022 primaries. The Ohio Supreme Court voted 4-3 to tell the legislature and the redistricting commission to do it again and do it right this time. The redistricting commission should follow the Ohio Constitution which prohibits redistricting plans that favor a political party, that requires plans to correspond closely to the statewide preferences of voters.
You would think the redistricting commission would have gotten down to work to produce new plans for Congressional and state legislative districts. They met, of course. But produced no plans. They failed to meet the deadline the Court set. They continue to fail to produce an acceptable plan.
What now? In the past, the Ohio Supreme Court has let it slide when, for instance, the legislature never got around to fixing its formula for state aid to schools as required. On the other hand, in 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court created a map of its own for Pennsylvania to use. They have done it again in 2022. The North Carolina Supreme Court has done something similar.
In Ohio nnew plans will get created. I don’t know by whom. It is possible, but not likely, that when new plans are created Steve Chabot’s OH 01 will become more Republican. Or it could become more Democratic.
After the legislature had voted to approve the redistricting commission’s original plan, Republicans didn’t seem particularly worried about the Cincinnati-based OH 01 district.
Steve Chabot is no maverick Republican. He voted against impeaching Donald Trump each time he had the chance. He voted against certifying Electoral College votes for Joe Biden each time he had the chance. He voted against the American Rescue Plan for recovery from the economic consequences of the pandemic when he had the chance.
Steve Chabot was one of the managers for Bill Clinton’s impeachment. He authored a bill to prohibit what he called “partial birth abortion.” He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He tells his constituents that the evidence for man-made climate change is inconclusive. He has advocated teaching intelligent design along with evolution in public schools.
There really is no reason why Ohio Republican legislators would be angry at him. Maybe they were complacent on his behalf.
It took Democrats a while to notice that the proposed new OH 01 had only an R+3 lean. Depending on who the candidates are and on circumstances, most analysts would call a district with an R+3 lean a toss-up. Steve Chabot has been described as one of the Republicans ten most vulnerable incumbents.
Democrats from Washington talked to Ohio Democratic leaders. Find a good candidate, they urged. This is a seat we could win. The inexperienced candidate who initially announced appears to have disappeared. Cincinnati and Washington Democrats found and agreed on Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman as the best candidate to oppose Steve Chabot.
Greg Landsman is the son of a teacher and an executive from Federated Department stores. Greg Landsman first ran for City Council race in 2013, After he lost, he developed a new hobby. He tried boxing. Now he uses boxing as a metaphor for politics. He talks about the need to jab, to move, and to act quickly, the need for perseverance and grit. In the City Council he is a peacemaker and a leader. He made a housing proposal so substantial, people assumed he was running for mayor. He was following up his experience as head of an anti-poverty business partnership which introduced successfully a comprehensive preschool proposal.
When he stumbled, he got up stronger than before. He was part of a group that sought to oust the city manager. Because members of the group texted each other they were accused of violating that state’s open meeting law. They had to make those texts public and lost the battle; they were fined. Those texts included one (though not authored by Greg Landsman) which accused Deputy Mayor Christopher Smitherman of using his wife’s diagnosis and eventual death from cancer for political gain. On live camera, in a Council meeting, Smitherman repeated his disdain for those comments during a debate about whether more texts should be revealed. Greg Landsman spoke to him directly and apologized – a real apology, not the kind we see so often in public. In an emotional moment, Smitherman accepted the apology and told Greg Landsman he had brought dignity to the City Council.
Greg Landsman had a substantial career before joining the Cincinnati City Council. As an undergraduate at Ohio University, among his volunteer activities was work with Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. After graduating, he went to Washington where he worked for Nancy Pelosi, then campaigning among her colleagues to become the first woman to serve as whip for Congressional Democrats. From working with a promising Congresswoman, he joined Bill Bradley’s 2000 Presidential campaign. After that he taught Spanish in Virginia and continued on to Cambridge, MA where, in 2007, he got a Master’s Degree from Harvard’s Divinity School. He was married not long afterwards.
Greg Landsman returned to working for Governor Ted Strickland as head of the newly created Department of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives which was intended to be part of an effort to reduce poverty in Ohio. Eventually Greg Landsman became Chair of the Anti-Poverty Task Force. Among the goals was creation of a state Earned Income Tax Credit; expansion of Medicaid coverage to parents and children; increased home energy assistance; and the eventual revision of the federal poverty guidelines.
In 2010, Greg Landsman became Executive Director of the Cincinnati version of the Strive Partnership which was intended to involve corporations in ending poverty. In 2015, shortly before joining the City Council, he created his own anti-poverty group that led a coalition to ensure children’s access to high quality preschools. Interestingly, his anti-poverty group also funded efforts to help children of Ethiopian Israelis.
Now Greg Landsman https://landsmanforcongress.com is facing Steve Chabot who, coincidentally also lost his first race for Cincinnati City Council. He’s been a fixture as the Congressman from OH 01 since 1985, though he did have to sit out for one term after losing to a Democrat. Help Greg Landsman move Steve Chabot to retirement. It is time.
Organizations to support that are not part of the Democratic establishment.
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
The New Georgia Project https://newgeorgiaproject.org A non-profit registering voters.
The New North Carolina Project https://newnorthcarolinaproject.org A non-profit registering voters. I had a great conversation with their Executive Director
The New Pennsylvania Project https://www.newpaproject.org A non-profit registering voters.
The Lincoln Project https://lincolnproject.us. Ex Republicans with tough messaging.
Do you have other organizations you think I should list? Let me know.
Democratic Party Establishment Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NRDC) https://democraticredistricting.com Led by Eric Holder
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