Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.
WEST: Political Note #422 Christy Smith CA 25, Political Note #383 Harley Rouda CA 48, Political Note #384 Peter DeFazio OR 04.
MIDWEST: Political Note # 398 David Palmer IL 13, Political Note #376 Lauren Underwood IL 14, Political Note #378 Elissa Slotkin MI 08, Political Note #357 Haley Stevens MI 11, Political Note #355 Angie Craig MN 02, Political Note #418 Brad Pfaff WI 03
SOUTHWEST: Political Note #389 Tom O’Halleran AZ 01, Political Note #375 Steven Horsford NV 04, Political Note #356 Susie Lee NV 03, Political Note #417 Abby Broyles OK 05, Political Note #377 Lizzie Fletcher TX 07, Political Note #362 Vicente Gonzalez TX 15, Political Note #399 Colin Allred TX 32
SOUTHEAST: Political Note #385 Carolyn Bordeaux GA 07, Political Note #410 Charles Evans NC 08, Political Note #416 Stewart Navarre VA 01, Political Note #388 Elaine Luria VA 02
NORTHEAST: Political Note #363 Tom Malinowski NJ 07, Political Note #394 Susan Wild PA 07, Political Note #397 Eugene DePasquale PA 10
SPECIAL ELECTIONS: Political Note #393 Allison Russo OH 15 (Election is November 2, 2021), Political Note #364 Jana Lynne Sanchez TX 06 (lost), Political Note #382 Melanie Stansbury NM 01 (won),
October 28th, 2021 Political Note #422 Christy Smith CA 25
2022 General Election
Joe Biden carried this district by 10 points. Kamala Harris, running for Senator, carried the district by 20 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the district by 2. In 2020 Christy Smith lost this race by one tenth of a point — 333 votes. You can hardly blame her for trying again.
The defining election in this district was in 2018. The Democratic candidate won by 9 points. Before that victory, the last Democrat to be elected to Congress from CA 25 was in 1990. Katie Hill was the winning Democratic candidate. A year after she was elected, a Republican blog claimed she had had an affair with her Legislative Director. They both denied that claim, but she acknowledged a previous relationship with a campaign staffer. A few days after that acknowledgement, the British newspaper, the Daily Mail, published nude photos of Hill. As a consequence, against Nancy Pelosi’s advice, Hill resigned from Congress.
Katie Hill informed Christy Smith of the impending resignation. The day after the resignation, Christy Smithannounced her campaign to replace Hill.
Christy Fisher (Smith) started out in Germany. Born in Wurzburg where her dad was in the Army, her family moved to Indiana and then to the Santa Clarita Valley when she was ten years old. Christy Fisher (Smith)graduated from high school there and from the College of the Canyons Community College – where her mother trained as a nurse. Christy Fisher (Smith) finished her BA at UCLA and moved east to work as a policy analyst for Bill Clinton’s Department of Education. That was her head start in politics.
Returned to Santa Clarita, married and raising children, sending her children to the same school district she had attended, Christy Smith was committed to community. She was Co-Chair of Raising the Curtain, supporting theater in Newhall and was elected to the school board. Education and the arts – what you support in the suburbs. The school district, north of Los Angeles, had been experiencing enormous growth (along with the rest of California) after World War II as it became a suburb. When Christy Smith became President of the Board in 2018, the district, which had a single elementary school after WW II, had more than 6,000 children. In 2012, the District faced a financial crisis. California’s budget deficit increased to $16 Billion. Some of the budget fix would come from reductions in state support for education. To meet legal requirements, the Board, Smith included, voted to non-renew what in California are called temporary teachers. They did it again in 2013.
When Christy Smith ran for the state Assembly in 2016, she was attacked by Republicans for laying off teachers and for a 2014 vote to increase her salary. Politifact found those claims “Mostly False.” The school board actually let go a single teacher. Christy Smith did vote to raise her own salary – by $12.50 per month.
Christy Smith lost her race for the state Assembly in 2016 by a spread of 53-47. With that loss, we see her persistence and the loyalty she generated. She was elected President of the Newhall School Board. She ran for the Assembly again in 2018, raising more than two million dollars for the campaign this time and defeating the incumbent 51-49.
She had successes in the Assembly. Her bill to compensate victims of human trafficking became law, as did a bill of which she was a joint sponsor, to include mental health coverage for first responders in worker’s compensation. Sadly, that law was passed in time to support first responders in Christy Smith’s hometown of Santa Clarita where there was a school shooting.
Christy Smith has had a chance to demonstrate her persistence. In March, 2020, after leading Republican Mike Garcia in the non-partisan primary by ten points, she lost the runoff 55-45. Assured that the November electorate would be different, Christy Smith raised more money — $6 Million. She was, however, outraised by the now incumbent Mike Garcia. He had $10 Million to spend in the election and won it – by 333 votes in a campaign that was (as it was for all politicians) hampered by the pandemic.
2022 brings new uncertainties. We don’t yet know what the California Congressional Districts will look like. Unless the district changes are surprising, we will again have a suburban housewife, former school board president, and former member of the California Assembly running against a Republican incumbent who is a former navy fighter pilot. In 2020, Mike Garcia campaigned against the California state government, against socialist Democrats, and for building Donald Trump’s wall. Opponents of the California state government were clobbered in the attempt to recall the state’s governor. Garcia is still campaigning against the Democrats’ “dangerous socialist agenda.” He opposes taxes and the debt, supports the military. He substituted his opposition to California Democrats with complaints about Joe Biden. He points to the withdrawal from Afghanistan and immigration policy. Garcia claims our immigration policy entices children across the border to the US so they will eventually become criminals.
Mike Garcia does not tout his refusal to join the Texas amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to overturn the 2020 presidential election. If he made much of that, he would have to defend his votes to reject counting Pennsylvania’s and Arizona’s electoral college ballots, his support of Donald Trump in the impeachment process, his opposition to the creation of an independent commission to examine the January 6 insurrection, and his apparent acceptance of the Big Lie that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. Here’s a way of thinking about Mike Garcia’s voting record. His claim to being a moderate is in conservation. He was one of 8 Republicans to support creation of a national wilderness area. Another departure from the majority of Republicans and the overwhelming majority of Members of Congress may be more characteristic of his extreme position. He opposed a drug reclassification which, had his view prevailed, would have continued disproportionately severe penalties for the version of cocaine more likely to be used by African Americans.
Every chance we have to flip a Republican seat in Congress is precious. Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org can flip this seat. Help her get the votes she needs to overcome her 333 vote loss in 2020. Defend vulnerable Democratic Members of the House. And flip the seats of vulnerable Republicans. Mike Garcia is considered one of the ten most vulnerable Republican Congressmen. Preserve the Democratic majority; increase that majority by donating to Christy Smith so Democrats can win this seat.
Democrats to flip Republican seats (I will keep adding to this list)
California 25 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org Help her make the third time a charm.
California 48 Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com Help him get his seat back from a far rightist supporter of Trump and Elder
Illinois 13 David Palmer. https://palmerforillinois.com Help this financial planner and former basketball player and defeat a perpetually vulnerable Republican
Iowa 02 Christina Bohanan https://bohannanforcongress.com Help this popular U of Iowa law school professor and state rep
North Carolina 08 Charles Evans https://www.charlesevansforcongress2022.com/ Help this formerly incarcerated guy who created a non-profit to help others like him
Ohio 15 Allison Russo https://allisonrusso.com (Special election November, 2021.) Help his health care researcher win an open Republican seat.
Oklahoma 05 Abby Broyles https://www.abbybroyles.com Help this young, former television celebrity and investigative reporter defeat a vulnerable Republican
Pennsylvania 10 Eugene DePasquale https://eugeneforcongress.com Help the former State Auditor defeat Incumbent Scott Perry — the most active Congressional conspirator to overturn the 2020 election
Virginia 01 Stewart Navarre https://stewartnavarre.com Help this former Marine Colonel and medical exec defeat an extreme Republican in a district hinting at purple
Vulnerable incumbent Democrats and Dems defending Open Democratic Seats.
West
Nevada 03 Susie Lee https://www.susieleeforcongress.com Received 48.75% of the vote in 2020
Nevada 04 Steve Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Oregon 04 Peter DeFazio https://www.defazioforcongress.org Received 51.26% of the vote in 2020
Texas 07 Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com Received 50.79% of the vote in 2020
Texas 15 Vicente Gonzalez http://www.vicentegonzalez.com Received 50.5% of the vote in 2020
Texas 32 Colin Allred https://www.colinallred.com Received 51.95% of the vote in 2020
Washington 08 Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com Received 51.79% of the vote in 2020
Elsewhere in the US
Georgia 07 Carolyn Bordeaux https://www.carolyn4congress.com Received 51.39% of the vote in 2020
Iowa 03 Cynthia Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com Received 48.9% of the vote in 2020
Illinois 14 Lauren Underwood https://underwoodforcongress.com Received 50.67% of the vote in 2020
Kansas 03 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com/ A ten point victor, but facing redistricting for 2022
Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com Received 50.88% of the vote in 2020
Michigan 11 Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com Received 50.2% of the vote in 2020
Minnesota 02 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com Received 48.21% of the vote in 2020=
New Jersey 07 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com Received 50.61% of the vote in 2020
New Mexico 01 Tom O’Halloran https://www.tomohalleran.com Received 51.61% of the vote in 2020
Virginia 02 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com Received 51.6% of the vote in 2020
Wisconsin 03 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com Candidate to replace retiring Ron Kind
REDISTRICTING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS. – in order of map adoption
Oregon Currently 5 seats – 4 Democrats and 1 Republican in two seats that are safely Democratic, one seat that is safely Republican, and two seats that are competitive. The new map has 6 seats – two seats that are safely Democratic, two seats that lean Democratic, one seat that is safely Republican, and one seat that is competitive. No promises here, but there is a decent chance that Oregon will elect 5 Democrats and 1 Republican – a gain of one Democratic seat.
Maine Currently 2 seats – 2 Democrats in one seat that is safely Democratic and one seat that leans Republican. The new map has two seats – one seat that is safely Democratic and one seat that leans Republican (though the lean is slightly diminished). No promises here, but there is a decent chance that Maine will again elect 2 Democrats – no change.
Nebraska Currently 3 seats – 2 Republicans in seats that are safely Republican, 1 Republican in a seat that is competitive. The new map has 3 seats — 2 which are safely Republican, one seat that is competitive. No promises here. There is a possibility that Democrats could win the competitive seat. We should try, but the likely result is – no change.
Indiana Currently 9 seats – 7 Republicans in six seats that are safely Republican and 1 seat that leans Republican. Two Democrats in one seats that leans Democratic and one seat that is safely Democratic. The new map has 9 seats – 7 seats that are safely Republican, 1 seat that leans Democratic and 1 seat that is safely Democratic. The possibility of a Democratic upset in one of the seats is diminished, the possibility of a Republican upset in one seat remains. The likely result is – no change.
So far: A probability of a gain of one Democratic seat.
Organizations to support
The Democratic National Committee (DNC). https://democrats.org
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) https://dccc.org
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) https://democraticgovernors.org
The Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) https://dems.ag
The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) https://demsofstate.org
The Democratic (State) Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) https://dlcc.org
Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Stacey Abrams organization to support fair elections
Democratic Party of Virginia Coordinated Campaign (VADEMS) https://vademocrats.org
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