Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com  Look at the recent Political Notes and Len’s Letters on the website.  Political Note #359 Maggie Hassan US Senate New Hampshire, Political Note #365 Catherine Cortez Masto US Senate Nevada, Political Note #379 Raphael Warnock US Senate Georgia, Political Note #387 Mark Kelly US Senate Arizona, Political Note #400 Val Demings US Senate Florida, Political Note #408 Charles Booker US Senate Florida

September 22nd, 2021         Political Note #413 Abby Finkenauer Iowa US Senate

2022                                       General Election

When Abby Finkenauer https://abbyfinkenauer.com was elected to Congress in 2018, she would have been the youngest person ever elected to Congress.  Except for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was also elected in 2018. AOC became a national figure.  Abby Finkenauer did not.  She defeated a moderate Republican in a swing district. In Congress, she worked on mastering relationships in Congress.

In 2020, Abby Finkenauer ran into what was either a bump in the road or a sinkhole.  We’ll find out which in 2022.  She is running for the US Senate against a wizard.  Not the Wizard of Oz, which would be Kansas, but Iowa’s wizard – Chuck Grassley.  Grassley is running for the US Senate for the eighth time.  He first ran in 1980 and has been successful every time. Abby Finkenauer was born in 1988.

Abby Finkenauer prepared to be a legislator from a very young age.  She was a page for the Republican Member of Congress from her district, Jim Nussle.  Next she was a page for the Democratic Speaker of the Iowa House, Pat Murphy.  After she graduated from college and after Pat Murphy’s retirement, she ran for his seat.  People rooted for her. She won the primary with 58% of the vote and the election with 61% of the vote.  She had no opponent for her second election.  Two years later, she ran for Congress and won.

Abby Finkenauer drew on her youth in the Iowa legislature.  She sought relief for people with college loans, urged that people be able to testify about legislative proposals via the internet, and fought to protect women’s right to control their bodies — asking in a speech to the legislature, why so many adult males wanted to control her body.  As the ranking member of the government oversight committee, she worked on privacy, public disclosure, and the regulation of lobbyists.

In Congress, Abby Finkenauer earned respect.  She was a Vice Chair of the Future Forum Caucus, the organization for young Members of Congress.  She was on the Small Business Committee and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.  As a freshman, she got a little done.  She introduced a bill to extend tax credits for biodiesel and renewable diesel fuel that was incorporated into an appropriations bill and passed. You might think – no big deal.  This is an Iowa kind of bill.  But it was a big deal to get it passed.  Skopos Labs, which tracks the likelihood of proposed legislation getting passed, gave it a 3% chance.  Once passed, other rural Members of Congress who had signed on were glad to take credit for the bill’s success.

While in Congress, she decided to address endometriosis, a condition that causes painful menstruation which she suffers from like nearly 10% of the women in the country.  Abby Finkenauer organized a group of young women Members of Congress to create a caucus on the topic and approached the Chair of the committee that oversees funding the NIH.  She and the caucus pressed for more research funding for this painful condition.  She made her first speech to Congress on the topic.

Abby Finkenauer was on her way to being an influential legislator when she ran into Marianetta Miller-Meeks and an off year for Democratic Members of Congress.  Now she is taking on an Iowa institution in Chuck Grassley.  He may be a tottering institution.  He hasn’t yet said whether he would run for an eighth term.  In June, the Des Moines Register reported that 64% of polled Iowa voters said “they think it is time for someone new to hold” his seat.  Only 27% of those polls said he should be reelected.  37% of the Republicans said he should be reelected.    Democrats and independents are ready for someone new – by an 84% and a 68% margin respectively.

Nate Silver of 538 tells us never to make too much of a single poll.  These numbers, though, are enormous.  Even so, if Chuck Grassley were to run, he would be hard to defeat. Iowans, in this poll and in general, respect him and feel affection for him.  Even when he is criticized – for cooperating with Mitch McConnell as chair of the judiciary committee and refusing to consider an Obama supreme court nominee while doing the opposite for a Trump nominee, for instance.  Even when critics think he has been around too long.  He is seen as an old farm boy, a representative of Iowa’s rural roots.

Abby Finkenauer https://abbyfinkenauer.com will campaign as a fresh voice, which she is.  She’ll need resources for that campaign.  Provide her with some early support.  She’ll need every dime.  In 2020, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate raised over $55 million — $25 million more than the incumbent. And the Democrat still lost by 6 points.  

The Cook Report projects the following incumbent Democratic Senators as Likely, or Leaning Democrat for 2022 rather than Solidly Democratic. These are seats we have to defend.  Donate to these candidates, too.

 Arizona                     Mark Kelly (Lean D) https://markkelly.com

Georgia                      Raphael Warnock (Lean D) https://warnockforgeorgia.com

Nevada                       Catherine Cortez Masto (Lean D) https://catherinecortezmasto.com 

New Hampshire     Maggie Hassan (Lean D) https://maggiehassan.com

 

Here are four Democrats who can flip Republican seats:  

 

Florida                       Congresswoman Val Demings https://valdemings.com is targeting Marco Rubio (Lean R)

Kentucky                  2020 Senate Candidate Charles Booker https://charlesbooker.org is targeting Rand Paul (Solid R – maybe)

Ohio                           Congressman Tim Ryan https://timforoh.com is targeting the open seat created because Rob Portman is retiring (Lean R)

Iowa                           Ex Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer https://abbyfinkenauer.com is targeting Chuck Grassley, seeking his 8th term (Solid R – maybe)

 

There are more seats that Democrats can flip.

Pennsylvania          Republican Pat Toomey is retiring. The seat is Open. (Toss Up) Democrats have been winning state-wide races recently. Five Democrats are currently in the race; more are still thinking about it.

Wisconsin                Republican Ron Johnson is a target (Toss Up) Nine Democrats are currently in the race; a few are still thinking about running.

Missouri                    Republican Roy Blunt is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Solid R) So far there are three Democratic candidates in the race and there may be more.  Five Missouri Republicans are running; the leading candidate would be vulnerable against a Democrat who could run a strong race.

North Carolina        Republican Richard Burr is retiring. The seat is Open.  (Toss Up) Five Democrats are running.  Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley may be the nominee.  She has run and both won and lost in state-wide campaigns. 

Alabama                   Republican Richard Shelby is retiring.  The seat is Open (Solid R) Is there a Democrat in Alabama who can create a Doug Jones-like surprise?  There is a Republican candidate who might be sufficiently offensive to make that surprise possible.

Organizations to support as well

The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) https://www.dscc.org  The campaign arm of the Democratic US Senators.

 The Democratic National Committee (DNC).   https://democrats.org  The official organization of the Democratic Party.

Fair Fight https://fairfight.com Promotes fair elections around the country

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