Check out the website: https://lenspoliticalnotes.com Political Note #189 Inc. Doug Jones AL Senate, Political Note #275 Dan Whitfield (Ind) US Senate Arkansas, Political Note #269 Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock US Senate Georgia (B), Political Note #283 Jon Ossoff US Senate Georgia (A), Political Note #255 Amy McGrath US Senate Kentucky, Political Note #239 Mike Espy US Senate Mississippi, Political Note #311 Abby Broyles US Senate Oklahoma, Political Note #291 MJ Hegar US Senate Texas
Political Note #316 Marquita Bradshaw US Senate Tennessee
2020 General election
Before I begin, I will remind you again about the Presidential race. Some recent polls show trump gaining on Joe Biden. Others do not. Michael Moore talks about how enthusiastic voters are for Trump; how lukewarm voters are for Biden. He says persuade 100 people to vote for Biden. Do that if you can. Whether or not you can, give Joe Biden the resources to persuade voters to vote for him. Do that at his website https://joebiden.com
Marquita Bradshaw https://www.marquitabradshaw.com is no Al Gore. Al Gore was the last Democratic Senator from Tennessee. When he ran for president, he could not carry Tennessee. There are those who say that Marquita Bradshaw, who won the Tennessee Democratic Primary, is no more likely to be elected Senator from Tennessee than a Democrat in Arkansas. And Arkansas doesn’t have a Democratic candidate for the US Senate.
Marquita Bradshaw is no James Mackler. James Mackler was expected to win the Democratic primary in Tennessee for the US Senate, The DSCC expected that victory and endorsed him. I expected that victory and wrote a note about him. Mackler had accumulated enough campaign funds to make a respectable race against either Republican – wealthy physician Manny Sethi or super wealthy hedge fund operator Bill Hagerty who won the Republican primary. Mackler, however, did not have enough votes in the primary. He came in third. Marquita Bradshaw won the primary, defeating Mackler and African-American attorney Robin Kimbrough who came in second.
Marquita Bradshaw is no ordinary candidate. If this were an ordinary year and the Democratic convention were actually in Milwaukee as planned, she might not have had enough money to get there. She has made no official report of her campaign spending. She really has to do that, but informal reports suggest she spent somewhere between $5,000 and $9,000 on her campaign. That seems incomprehensible.
Marquita Bradshaw is no ordinary political figure. She’s 45 years old and the single mother of a son who is about to graduate from technical college. She is the daughter of an activist mother and is an activist for environmental justice. She is a graduate of the University of Memphis and has been working 30 hours a week while earning less than $15 per hour. Her advocacy and her campaign have been part-time.
Marquita Bradshaw is running for the US Senate in no ordinary year. So says Michael Nelson, the Fulmer Professor of political science at Rhodes College and a columnist for the Daily Memphian. He reminds his readers that the constant in politics is change. He reminds his readers that 45 years ago, Virginia was the most Republican state in the South, the only Southern state to vote for Gerald Ford against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Now Virginia has a Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, two Democratic Senators, and more and more Democratic members of Congress. It consistently votes for Democrats for President.
Marguita Bradshaw has a chance because this is no ordinary year. So says Michael Nelson in the Daily Memphian. In an ordinary year (actually a strong Democratic year), 2018, promising Democratic candidates were clobbered in Tennessee by 11 points for the US Senate and by 21 points for Governor. Nelson reminds us of Ronald Reagan’s defeat of the incumbent president, Jimmy Carter in 1980. The election, he says, was expected to be close. But Carter could not escape the consequences of the Americans held hostage by Iran and lost the election by 444 electoral votes. That year, Nelson explains, the Republicans gained 12 seats in the Senate. Could 2020 be the Democrats answer to 1980? Could 2020 be the kind of year where Marquita Bradshaw is one of twelve or more Democrats newly elected to the US Senate?
Michael Nelson says it could be. He points out that Tennessee Democrats are united behind her. She has excited younger Democrats. She is facing a Tennessee Republican Party that is not at all united, that has just completed a primary that was as hateful and as damaging to each of the two Senate candidates as any in Tennessee history. The two candidates demonstrated their love for Donald Trump through imitation – by taunting each other.
Marquita Bradshaw is no mainstream Democrat. Democrats have been talking about the importance of working on behalf of the marginalized. It would be a challenge to find a Senate nominee who represents the marginalized more genuinely. She did not arise out of nowhere, though. Her uncle, John DeBerry, is a state senator from Memphis. If you google army pollution in Memphis, you come up with a flyer or a story about a flyer demanding that something be done about the Department of Defense Depot on Memphis’s Airways Boulevard. The depot was designated in 1992 as a Superfund site. The flyer has Doris Bradshaw’s picture on it, leading the charge. Doris is Marquita Bradshaw’s mom. The apparently cleaned up site is now a corporate industrial park. Activists doubt the clean up. They suspect there is more pollution there; that it is related to the army’s original pollution of the area; that the pollution is the cause of more deaths from cancer. Doris Bradshaw’s activism is the origin of Marquita Bradshaw’s commitment.
Marquita Bradshaw is no ordinary campaigner. If she were, she would have packed up her primary victory in a bag and taken that bag around to raise money from big Democratic donors. If she were a new type of Democratic campaigner, she would have purchased some mailing lists (maybe they would even have been donated to her) so she could do grassroots fund raising. She’s not doing ither. She’s traveling to all 95 countes in Tennessee. Grassroots democracy for Marquita Bradshaw? That means personally getting out the vote.
Round up just a little. Tennessee is 80% White, 20% Black. Marquita Bradshaw might be able to generate a much higher percentage of African Americans voting than in past elections. That is not enough. She needs a lot of White people in Tennessee to prefer her to Bill Hagerty, Donald Trump’s candidate who Donald Trump’s favorite.
Hagerty is a hedge fund guy. He is a principled hedge fund guy. In July he resigned from the board of the brokerage firm RJ O’Brien & Associates after criticism by his primary rival. RJ O’Brien & Associates had announced in May that it “stands proudly with the African American Community in support of EQUALITY AND PEACE #BLACK LIVES MATTER.” Hagerty probably did not notice that statement until it was pointed out by his primary rival. He quit the board rather than be associated with such a statement. The brokerage firm took a principled stand as well. They deleted their tweet.
During the campaign, Hagerty did find one thing to stand up for. Neither he nor his rival wore masks. They were criticized vigorously on social media for this failure, which many described as a failure of leadership. Haberty’s campaign explained “we are focused on sharing Bill’s positive conservative message with Tennessee voters. They’re tired of mandates and being told what to do by the government. Bill trusts the good people of Tennessee to make the right decisions for themselves.” Hagerty reserved the right, notwithstanding that several counties mandated wearing masks, to make the decision about mask-wearing for himself.
Aside from his resignation from O’Brien, Hagerty has moved smoothly between the public and private sector. He went from his hedge fund work to serving as the Tennessee Commissioner for Economic and Community Development. Then he went back to hedge funds. He did a three-year stint in Japan on behalf of his hedge fund. Donald Trump appointed him as Caroline Kennedy’s replacement as the US Ambassador to Japan.
Is there any possibility that Tennesseans would prefer an African-American advocate for environmental justice to this stand-up hedge fund guy? We will all find out in November. Until then, Marquita Bradshaw is not doing much in the way of fund raising other than having a donor button on her website. I suggest you take a look at her website and push that button. Hagerty will spend millions during the remaining days of the campaign unless, of course, he becomes complacent. Let’s see if we can get enough money to Marquita Bradshaw https://www.marquitabradshaw.com so she can spend more than $10,000 in this part of her campaign. Help her pay for lunch and dinner while she travels to every one of Tennessee’s 95 counties. Help with gas money, too.
There are plenty of Democratic Senate candidates to support (Democrats listed first):
DEMOCRATS ARE AHEAD
Arizona Astronaut Mark Kelly, gun safety leader supported by his wife former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords v. Incumbent and ex fighter pilot Martha McSally. July 15 Cash on hand: McSally $11 million. Kelly $21 million. Polls: July Kelly 53-35, 47-45, 52-36, 51-42, 50-42, 53-41
Colorado Former Governor John Hickenlooper v Incumbent attorney and party activist Senator Cory Gardner. July 24 Cash on hand: Gardner $10.7 million, Cash on Hand June 30 Hickenlooper $4.5 million, Polls: June Hickenlooper 48-42, 51-39, 58-28
Michigan Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters has a tough opponent in African-American Businessman John James. July 15 Cash on hand: Peters $11.6 Million, Johnson $9.2 Million. Polls: August Peters 51- 40 July Peters 47-39, 52-35, 41-34, 48 – 44, 49 – 35, 48-38, 47-39, 53-48
North Carolina. Businessman, environmentalist, and veteran, Cal Cunningham v Incumbent Thom Tillis. June 30 Cash on Hand: Tillis $6.9 Million, Cunningham $6.6 Million. Polls: July Cunningham 48-39, 47-36, 52 – 40, 46-37, 48-40, 49-42, 47-39, 44-40 . Tied 43-43
RACES THAT ARE CLOSE TO EVEN
Alaska Physician and Commercial Fisherman Al Gross v. incumbent Dan Sullivan. June 30: Sullivan’s cash on hand $5.3 million. Gross’s cash on hand $3.2 million. Polls: July Sullivan 39-34
Georgia (A) Jon Ossoff v incumbent David Perdue. Cash on Hand June 30. Perdue $10.7 Million, Ossoff $2.5 Million,. Polls: July Perdue 45-43, 49-43. 45-42, 48-43, Ossoff 45-44
Iowa Businesswoman and civic leader Theresa Greenfield v incumbent Joni Ernst. June 30 Cash on hand: Ernst $9.1 Million, Greenfield $5.6 Million, Polls: August Ernst 48-45, July Greenfield 49-47
Kentucky Retired Marine Pilot Amy McGrath and conservative Democrat v Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. June 30 Cash on hand: McConnell $16.6 Million, McGrath $16.2 Million. Polls: August McConnell 49-46, July McConnell 53-36, June McGrath 41-40
Maine Speaker of the ME House, Sara Gideon v sometimes moderate incumbent Susan Collins. June 30 Cash on hand: Collins $5.6 Million, Gideon $5.4 Million Polls: July Collins 45-37, Gideon 44 – 39, 47-42, 47-43, 46-42
Montana Steve Bullock, Democratic Governor of Montana versus corporate-oriented incumbent Steve Daines. June 30 Cash on hand: Daines $7.1 Million, Bullock $7.6 Million. Polls: July Bullock 46-44, 47-43
South Carolina Former Party Chair Jaime Harrison v incumbent, former moderate Republican Lindsay Graham. May 20 Cash on hand Graham $15 Million, Cash on Hand June 30 Harrison $10.2 Million. Polls: July Graham 44-43, 49 – 45, 48-41
REPUBLICANS ARE AHEAD
Alabama Incumbent ex US Attorney and Prosecutor of KKK members Doug Jones v former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. June 30 Cash on hand. Jones $8.8 Million. Tuberville $550,000. Polls: July Tuberville 52-35 June Tuberville 50-36, Tuberville 47-44
Georgia (B) Five candidates. The top two will be in a run off. Three Democrats: The Reverend Dr. Raphael Warnock, Senior Pastor at the Ebenezer Baptist Church of Atlanta, Businessman Matt Lieberman, ex US Attorney Ed Tarver. Two Republicans: Incumbent Kelly Loeffler, Congressman Doug Collins. June 30 Cash on hand: Loeffler $7 Million, Warnock $2.9 Million, Collins $2.6 Million, Lieberman $300,000 Polls: July Collins 26, Loeffler 24, Warnock 18, Liberman 11, Tarver 9, July Collins 21, Loeffler 20, Lieberman 14, Warnock 9, Tarver 5
Kansas Physician and former Republican State Senator Barbara Boliier v. Congressman Roger Marshall. July 15 Cash on hand: Bollier $4.1 Million Marshall $1 Million Polls: May Hamilton 42-41
Mississippi Ex Member of Congress and Ex Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy v Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. June 30 Cash on hand: Hyde-Smith $1.2 Million, Espy $680,000. Polls: June Hyde-Smith 49-41
Oklahoma Television journalist Abby Broyles v Incumbent Jim Inhofe June 30 Cash on hand: Inhofe $2.2 million, Broyles $200,000. Polls July Inhofe 50-34
Texas Military Helicopter Pilot MJ Hegar v Incumbent John Cornyn. June 30 Cash on hand: Cornyn $14.5 Million, M. J. Hegar $900,000 Polls: July Cornyn 43-42, 44-38, 42-35, 47-38, 44-36, 42-29,
REPUBLICANS PRETTY FAR AHEAD BUT IT IS WORTH CAUSING THEM TROUBLE ANYHOW. WHO KNOWS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN
Arkansas Independent Dan Whitfield (if he can get on the ballot) v incumbent Tom Cotton March 31 Cash on hand Cotton $5 Million, Whitfield $5 Thousand. No polls.
Idaho Former state senator Paulette Jordan versus incumbent James Risch. June 30: Rish cash on hand $2.4 million. Paulette Jordan $70,000
Louisiana Mayor Adrian Perkins v Incumbent Bill Cassidy. Beginning of July Cassidy had $6 million. Perkins has not yet reported. No Polls.
South Dakota, Businessman Dan Ahlers v Incumbent Mike Rounds. March 31 Cash on hand: Rounds $2 Million. Ahlers (who still has to win a primary) $35,000. Polls: None
Tennessee Memphis-based African-American environmental justice activist Marquita Bradshaw for an open Republican seat in Tennessee. June 30 Cash on hand: Republicans: Hedge Fund Owner Bill Hagerty $4.1 Million, Democrat Marquita Bradshaw – no funds reported. Polls: None
West Virginia Environmental Activist Paula Jean Swearengin versus incumbent Shelley Moore Capito. In the middle of July Moore Capito had $1.8 million. At the beginning of July Paul Jean Swearengin had $130,000. Polls: None
