Look at the Daily Bits: A Route Out for Donald Trump, Four Errors
Len’s Letter #18 Constructing and Deconstructing Nations
We were shocked. Donald Trump allowed Turkey to attack the Kurdish militia that had created a mini state in the northeast of Syria. On the Turkish border. The Kurds were our allies. They were our ground troops for defeating ISIS. They have had hopes of creating a nation state. Find a map on Wikipedia or elsewhere that shows where the Kurds are in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
Turkey is also our ally, a fellow member of NATO, a US supporter in Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey doesn’t see the Kurdish militia and Kurdish mini state the way we do. Turkish leaders believe that the Kurds would secede to form their own country at the eastern end of Turkey if they could. When they accuse Kurdish organizations of being terrorists, secession is what the Turks see as the Kurdish terrorists’ goal.
Vice President Joe Biden had a kind of Kurdish secession proposal for Iraq. As the war was ending, he suggested three autonomous areas
- Shia, in the South of Iraq where they are a majority and are adjacent to Shia Iran;
- Sunnis in central Iraq where they may have been a majority and could have included the capitol, Baghdad;
- Kurds in northern Iraq where they may have been a majority and had already created a defacto autonomous area.
Could the institutionalization of those divisions have prevented the rise of ISIS? ISIS became strong in central Iraq appealing to fellow Sunnis to regain Sunni domination of the country.
Kurds aren’t the only ones in the world who would like to have their own nation. In Europe, there are Scots would secede from the United Kingdom, Basques who would secede from Spain (maybe from France as well) and Catalonians who would secede from Spain. Secession is not the only kind of dispute. Some Hungarians want Transylvania back from the Romanians. Hungary lost that region after World War I.
In Asia, China’s leaders want a greater China that is also homogenous. It insists that Taiwan is part of China, stood in the way of Tibetans who wanted autonomy or independence, is confounded by Hong Kongers whose idea of one nation, two systems would sustain their autonomy, and tyrannizes Muslim Uighers who may be more loyal to each other and to Xin Jiang province than to China itself. Myanmar wants homogeneity. It has driven Muslim Rohingya out of the country into Bangladesh. Few could imagine a homogenous India. Nevertheless, Hindu Indians have been offended by the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir. It is the only Muslim majority province in the country. India has now eliminated Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy.
The United States has its own history of secession. We fought a bloody civil war to prevent the Confederate States of American from seceding. Twenty-five years before the Civil War, Texans led by settlers from the US, seceded from Mexico.
Creating nations is a messy and, usually, bloody business. Only fools speculate about ways to adjudicate these quarrels to avoid the messiness. I step up as one of those fools. Here are some tenets:
- Those who want to secede and create a new nation have a claim.
- The claim should be by more than a majority of the secessionist territory
- Stability has a claim
- A majority of the larger country should be required to support change.
- The status quo has a claim
- There should be compelling reasons for changing an existing country.
- Tyranny should have no claim
- When peaceful change is impossible because voting is impossible, international organizations should intervene and be biased against tyranny.
Think Scotland and the UK. The parliaments of the United Kingdom and Scotland could vote on Scottish secession. As has become the practice, there could be a popular vote. The people of Scotland could vote. If so, the people of the United Kingdom should also get to vote. The Scottish vote, popular or in parliament, should be a supermajority. Maybe even 75%.
That’s not what happened. The government of the UK and the government of Scotland agreed that they would both honor a Scottish referendum. A minority of Scots voted for Scottish independence.
What about next time? Whether Brexit comes to pass or not, Scotland has been sufficiently affected by the Brexit process to want to try secession again. If the rules I suggest were followed there could be a standoff. A majority of the UK might oppose secession while the agreed upon supermajority is achieved in Scotland. In that case, the status quo has a claim, but not a permanent one. Vote again in ten years.
Could Spain and Catalonia and/or the Basques agree on a procedure like this? Would the Scots? Would anyone?
When democracy does not exist. Where there is oppression, peaceful resolution is hard. No nation, no international body is helping the Rohingya or the Uighurs. Not the United Nations. Not the World Court.
Regional entities have intervened in some disputes. The Organization of American States has intervened in member countries, generally in favor of ensuring greater democracy. The Organization of African Unity has been less effective, but smaller regional entities in Africa have intervened to ensure stability.
Regional peace efforts have helped. NATO has helped. The United States has helped. NATO, led by the US, brought a peace settlement, completed by the Dayton Accords, to the wars associated with Yugoslavia’s dissolution as a nation. Irish Nationalists and the British government found a way, with some help from the US, to achieve a peace agreement that was ratified by a constitutional amendment vote in the Republic of Ireland and a referendum in Northern Ireland.
Could NATO have helped Turkey and the Kurds? The history of Turkey and the Kurds has been messy and bloody. The Turks created a nation, adopting nineteenth century nationalism. They adopted a twentieth century vision of national homogeneity.
To ensure the existence of that homogeneous nation, they acted against the 10% or 20% of the nation that was Kurdish. They banned the Kurdish language, Kurdish dress, even the term Kurd. Without commenting on the extent to which the Kurdish response was a form of terrorism, the Kurds have a claim against tyranny. Turkish behavior toward the 3% to 5% of the nation that was Armenian was worse. Early in the twentieth century, Armenians were harassed, expelled, and harassed as they left (sometimes by Kurds). An estimated million Armenians died.
Donald Trump’s acquiescence to Turkey’s invasion of Syria and attack on the Kurdish militia and mini-state was an acquiescence to tyranny, a decision in favor of Russia as the principal influence in Syria, a decision in favor of Turkish homogeneity. A decent regard to the claims of those seeking autonomy or independence to avoid tyranny would have led to a different decision. Trump’s intervention was the opposite of NATO helping.
For most Notes and Letters, I add reminders about candidates to support. When I write about a Senatorial candidate, I include the 2020 Democratic Senate candidates I have written about. Winning the Senate is a big deal. When I write about a Congressional candidate, I write about regional candidates for the House and Senate. Right now, I am reminding people that last minute money is helpful. This is the last minute for fall, 2019 election. Below are some people to you could consider supporting:
November 5
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Kentucky Secretary of State Heather French Henry
Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo
Mississippi Governor Jim Hood
Mississippi Attorney General Jennifer Riley Collins
Louisiana House and Senate Louisiana Democratic Party
Mississippi House and Senate Mississippi Democratic Party
Virginia House and Senate Virginia Democratic Party
November 12
Louisiana Governor reelection John Bel Edwards