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September 13th, 2022       Political Note #504 The US Senate – where the race stands

2022                                        General Election

Let’s look at the US Senate which has a Democratic majority with 50 out of 100 seats and a Democratic Vice President presiding. A bigger majority might make it possible to pass more Democratic legislation if the Democrats retain a majority in the House. Everyone agrees that will be hard.

We read that the Senate is a toss-up; that the Democrats have caught up.  Let’s look at the competitive seats.  If the result of that look makes you feel the Democrats will win the Senate, remember: Complacency Kills Campaigns.  Losing the Senate would be a disaster. The Senate will not be won without more grassroots funding.  Keep it up.

Democratic Incumbents who may need defending

 

Washington

 

Worried voices have expressed concern that Democratic Senator Patty Murray (Political Note #464) could be in trouble.  A pre-school teacher with a husband in the Coast Guard, she tried lobbying the legislature for better funding.  The response drove her to elective office – the local school board, the state senate and then the US Senate.  Her opponent, Tiffany Smiley, made her reputation as an opponent of government bureaucracy preventing them from discharging her husband from the army after he was blinded by a car bomb in Iraq.

  • On September 12, 538 said that Patty Murray would win 97 times out of 100. Her probable margin of victory would be 57.2 – 42.8.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on September 7 that Murray was leading by 9
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on September 1 that Murray was leading by 3
    • A Republican funded C/D rated poll reported on August 17 that Murray was leading by 6.
    • An independent funded A/B rated poll reported on July 11 that Murray was leading by 20.
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on July 10 that Murray was leading by 18.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 13 Murray had $6.6 million available for her campaign; Smiley had $2.3 million

Colorado

More worried people expressed concern that Democratic Senator Michael Bennet (Political Note #457) could be in trouble.  The son of a woman who, as a child, was spirited out of the Warsaw ghetto and an eventual President of Wesleyan University, he had been an advisor to fellow Wesleyan alum, the mayor of Denver, John Hickenlooper, now Colorado’s other Senator. Michael Bennet became Denver’s school superintendent, then was elected to the US Senate. His opponent is Joe O’Dea, a mostly self-made construction magnate. Less extreme than some Republicans, he supports, for example, a national abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

  • On Sepember 12, 538 said that Michael Bennet would win 90 times out of 100.  His probable margin of victory would be 52.4-42.8.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on August 31 that Bennet was leading by 11
    • A Republican funded B+ rated poll reported on August 25 that Bennet was leading by 1
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 19 that Bennet was leading by 6.
    • A Republican funded C/D rated poll reported on July 26 that Bennet was leading by 8.
    • A Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on June 8 that Bennet was leading by 13.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Bennet had $8 million available for his campaign; O’Dea had $850 thousand.

Democratic Incumbents who definitely need support

 New Hampshire

Of the candidates in the four states where the Democratic incumbent Senator has been considered vulnerable, Senator Maggie Hassan (Political Note #359) appears to be in the best shape.  Daughter of a distinguished political scientist and university president, wife of a teacher at and eventually headmaster at Phillips Exeter Academy, she became involved in elective politics concerned about her special needs child’s education.  Her probable opponent is Donald Bolduc, a retired Brigadier General who believes we should go back to state senates choosing US Senators.  The primary is tomorrow.  If the nominee is not Bolduc, will that change Maggie Hassan’s situation.

  • On September 12, 538 says that Maggie Hassan would win 81 times out of 100.   Her probable margin of victory would be 52.2-45.6.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on July 8 that Hassan was leading by 4.
    • A Democratic funded B- rated poll reported on June 27 that Hassan was leading by 9.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Hassan had $7.3 million available for her campaign; Bolduc had $65,000.

 

Arizona

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly (Political Note #387) was a twin born to a paratrooper retired to be a local cop and a mother who was the New Jersey town’s first female cop.  He is married to Gabby Giffords, a former Arizona Congresswoman who was so severely injured in an assassination attempt that she had to step down.  The two of them created and ran a gun safety organization before Kelly ran for the US Senate.  His opponent is Blake Masters, acolyte of libertarian billionaire Peter Thiel, COO of Thiel’s business and CEO of his foundation.

  • On September 12, 538 said that Mark Kelly would win 74 times out of 100. His probable margin of victory would be 51.1-46.7.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on September 7th that Kelly was leading by 6.
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on September 7th that Kelly was leading by 2
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 27th that Kelly was leading by 3.
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on August 16th that Kelly was leading by 8.
    • An independent funded unrated poll reported on August 8th that Kelly was leading by 14.
    • A Republican funded B/C rated poll reported on August 2nd that Kelly was leading by 5.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 13 Kelly had $24 million available for his campaign; Masters had $1.5 million.

Nevada

Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Political Note #365) was the daughter of a political force in Nevada, the head of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.  She met her husband, a member of Bill Clinton’s Secret Service, on a presidential visit to Nevada when she was the Nevada Governor’s Chief of Staff. She went on to be Nevada’s Attorney General. Her opponent is Adam Laxalt, son of a liaison between a Senator and another Senator’s daughter.  Laxalt is a former state Attorney General and has been a candidate for other high offices in the state.

  • On September 12 538 said that Catherine Cortez Masto would win 63 times out of 100. Her probable margin of victory would be 49.6-47.3.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 24th that Cortez Masto was leading by 4
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 18th that Cortez Masto was behind by 2 points.
    • A newspaper funded B+ rated poll reported on August 17th that Cortez Masto was leading by 5.
    • An environmental organization B/C rated poll reported on July 20 that Cortez Masto was leading by 6.
    • A media funded A- rated poll reported on July 10 that Cortez Masto was leading by 3.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Cortez Masto had $9.8 million available; Laxalt had $2.1 million

Georgia

Incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock (Political Note #379) was raised in public housing in Savannah, son parents who were both preachers. His father also made a business of fixing and reselling junked automobiles.  A graduate of Morehouse with a Master’s and Doctorate from the Union Theological Seminary, he was senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta when he ran for the Senate. His opponent is businessman and former football player Herschel Walker. Walker is enormously popular from his years playing for the University of Georgia, but his fumbling campaign and recent exposures of his threats against his wife exemplifies Mitch McConnell’s complaint about the poor quality of Republican candidates.

  • On September 12 538 said that Raphael Warnock would win 50 times out of 100. His probable margin of victory would be 49.4-48.9.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on September 7th that Warnock was behind by 3
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on August 29th that Warnock was behind by 2
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 27th that Warnock was behind by 1
    • A private school funded unrated poll reported on August 7th that Warnock was behind by 2 points.
    • A Democratic funded unrated poll reported on August 1st that Warnock was leading by 3.
    • A media funded B rated poll reported on July 27th that Warnock was leading by 3.
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on July 26th that Warnock was leading by 4.
    • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on July 24th that Warnock was behind by 5.
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on July 24th that Warnock was leading by 9.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Warnock had $22.2 million available; Walker had $6.8 million.

Democratic Challengers

Pennsylvania

Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman (Political Note #433) moved toward public service after a college friend was killed in an automobile accident.  He joined AmeriCorps, worked in Pittsburgh, got a Master’s Degree from the Kennedy School, and worked in Braddock east of Pittsburgh where he eventually became mayor.  At 6’9” and colorful, he has become a commanding figure despite suffering a stroke during the campaign. His opponent, Mehmut Oz, a doctor famous through television, has been handicapped In his campaign by, among other things, the fact that he has Turkish citizenship and lived, until recently, in New Jersey.

  • On September 12 538 said that John Fetterman would win 80 times in 100. His probable margin of victory would be 51.4-45.5.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on September 3rd that Fetterman was leading by 9
    • An independently funded B+ rated poll reported on August 29th that Fetterman was leading by 5
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on August 23rd that Fetterman was leading by 5.
    • An independently funded B/C rated poll reported on August 21st that Fetterman was leading by 13.
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 18th that Fetterman was leading by 5.
    • A community organization of business and labor together funded A- rated poll reported on August 10th that Fetterman was leading by 18.
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 1st that Fetterman was leading by 14
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Fetterman had $5.5 million available; Oz had $1.1 million.

Wisconsin

Democratic Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (Political Note #482) was born and brought up by a working-class family in Milwaukee and attended Alabama A & M. He became director of an interfaith coalition back in Wisconsin, defeated an incumbent for the state assembly, lost to an incumbent for the state senate, worked for a policy shop, and then ran and won election as Lt. Governor.  Against formidable figures, he won the Democratic primary to run against the incumbent US Senator Ron Johnson.  Johnson had been CEO of a manufacturing firm founded by his brother in law.  He defeated a Democratic incumbent US Senator and has been controversial as an opponent of immigration, a disbeliever in climate change, a skeptic about Covid vaccinations.

  • On September 12 538 says Mandela Barnes would win 49 times in 100. He would probably lose by a 49.9-50.1 margin.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 25th that Barnes was leading by 2 points.
    • A media funded A rated poll reported on August 16th that Barnes was leading by 4 points.
    • An independently funded A/B rated poll reported on August 15th that Barnes was leading by 7 points.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 20 Barnes had just under $1 million available; Johnson had just over $2 million.

North Carolina

Former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley (Political Note #434) was raised in Tennessee where her mother was the Dean of the Nursing School for Austin Peay University.  Cheri Beasley went to Rutgers for her undergraduate degree, the University of Tennessee for law school, and then went to work as a public defender in North Carolina.  She was appointed, then elected twice as a district court judge. She was appointed and elected as an associate justice of the state supreme court.  She was appointed Chief Justice of the state supreme court, but lost the election by 401 votes out of 5.4 million. Running for the US Senate, her opponent is Congressman Ted Budd.  Endorsed by Donald Trump, he was raised on a cattle and chicken farm by an at home mom and a father who owned a facility services company.  Ted Budd owned a gun store before being elected to Congress.

  • On September 12 538 said Cheri Beasley would win 37 of 100 times. She would probably lose by a 47.7 to 50.0 margin.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on September 4th that Beasley was losing by 3
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on August 30th that Beasley was leading by 1
    • A Republican funded B+ rated poll reported on August 15th the two candidates were tied.
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 6th Beasley leading by 4 points.
    • A Republican funded unrated poll reported on July 24th Beasley leading by 2.
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on July 1st Beasley behind by 3 points.
  • Open Secrets and the FEC indicate that Cheri Beasley has not reported since July. On July 1 she had $4.8 million.  On August 23, Ted Budd had $1.8 million available for the balance of the campaign.

 

Ohio

Tim Ryan (Political Note #392) is a Member of Congress.  Formerly a staffer for the notorious Congressman Jim Traficant, Ryan defeated a Republican and the indicted and jailed Traficant.  Ryan has won every congressional election since 2002 in blue collar districts that have escaped going Republican unlike much of the rest of Ohio.  Ryan, the son of a single mother who followed local politics, was a high school quarterback who injured his knee making playing in college impossible.  His opponent is another Trump find, JD Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy which concludes, as his political viewpoint continues to support, that those that cannot escape from rural poverty are responsible for their failure.  Republicans in very Republican Ohio fault Vance for running a campaign in which he just does not show up and is not raising money,

  • On September 12, 538 said Tim Ryan would win 28 times out of 100. He would probably lose by a 47.9-52.1 margin.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B+ rated poll reported on September 7th that Ryan was leading by 1
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on September 5th that Ryan was leading by 9
    • A Republican funded A- rated poll reported on August 18th that Ryan was behind by 5 points.
    • An independently funded A rated poll reported on August 16th that Ryan was behind by 3 points.
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 1st that Ryan was behind by 10 points.
  • Open Secrets reported that Tim Ryan began July with $3.5 million available; JD Vance had $600,000.

Florida

Val Demings (Political Note #400) is a Member of Congress and the former Orlando Chief of Police.  The youngest of seven children, her father was a janitor, gardener, and orange picker.  Her mother cleaned houses. They lived in segregated Jacksonville.  Val, in junior high school, was the first to enter a desegregated school.  There she was something of a star. Working from age 14, she graduated from Florida State University and joined the Orlando police force where she met her husband. He became Orlando’s police chief before she did. He was elected Sheriff of Orange County and most recently Mayor of Orange County.  She is running against the incumbent Marco Rubio.  Rubio is the child of Cuban immigrants who was elected a state rep, speaker of the Florida House and, in 2010 to the US Senate. In 2016, running for the Presidency, he was embarrassed by Donald Trump.

  • On September 12 538 said that Val Demings would win 14 out of 100 times. She would probably lose by a 45.2-52.7 margin.
  • Recent polls can tell us something.
    • An independently funded B rate poll reported on September 6th that Demings was behind by 2
    • An independently funded B+ rated poll reported on September 3rd that Demings was behind by 3
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 31st that Beasley was behind by 2
    • A Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on August 30th that Demings was behind by 1
    • A Democratic funded unrated poll reported on August 18th that Demings was behind by 3
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 14th that Val Demings was behind by 7
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on August 12th that Val Demings was ahead by 4
    • A Democratic funded A/B rated poll reported on August 5th that the race was tied between Demings and Rubio
    • A Democratic funded B/C rated poll reported on July 31st that the race was tied between Demings and Rubio
  • Open Secrets reported that on August 3 Val Demings had $8.8 million for her campaign; Rubio had $15 million

Democrats running who have a hope or a prayer or, maybe, just the slimmest of possibilities. I believe one of them (I don’t know which one) will break through, come close, and maybe even win.

 Iowa

Mike Franken (Political Note #481) is an Iowan.  He was the ninth of nine children on the farm, went to college with a ROTC scholarship, and joined the navy. Eventually he became an admiral and lived around the world.  He has campaigned against the incumbent arguing that Grassley questioning his Iowan bona fides is questioning the patriotism of all members of the service.  He has also campaigned against Grassley for being complicit in Donald Trump’s plan to vitiate the 2020 election.  He does not raise Chuck Grassley’s age in his campaign.  Everyone knows that he is 88.

  • On September 12 538 said that Mike Franken would win 2 out of 100 times. He would probably lose by a 41.7-58.3 margin.
  • Recent polls could tell us something.
    • A Republican funded B rated poll reported on July 14th that Mike Franken was behind by 8 points
    • A media funded A+ rated poll reported on July 13th that Franken was behind by 8 points
    • A Democratic funded B- rated poll reported on July 4th that Franken was behind by 5.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Mike Franken had $1.1 million for his campaign; Grassley had $4 million on the same date.

 Utah

Evan McMullin (Political Note #427) is not a Democrat.  He was, until recently, a Republican.  He ran for president as an Independent, pretty much only in Utah.  He is running for the US Senate from Utah as an independent and has the state’s Democratic Party endorsement.  This time, he has roiled the Republicans. An example of MAGA violence, not long ago, he was nearly run into oncoming traffic by a large pick up truck.  A Brigham Young graduate, former CIA agent and former chief policy director for House Republicans, he became deeply opposed to Donald Trump. His is running against Trump acolyte Senator Mike Lee.  Lee’s father was solicitor general under Ronald Reagan and the founding Dean of the Brigham Young University Law School. Mike Lee is a former Clerk for Samuel Alito.

  • On September 12 538 said that Evan McMullin would win 6 out of 100 times. He would probably lose by a 38.1- 52.2 margin.
  • Recent polls could tell us something.
    • A McMullin funded B/C rated poll reported on September 1st that McMullin was leading by 1
    • An independent funded B rated poll reported on July 18th that McMullin was behind by 5
    • A media and university funded B rated poll reported on July 14th that Evan McMullin was behind by 5 points
    • A Republican funded B/C rated poll reported on July 14th that McMullin was behind by 14
    • An independently funded unrated poll reported on July 12th that McMullin was behind by 10.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Evan McMullin had $1.3 million for his campaign; Lee had $2.5 million

Kentucky

Charles Booker (Political Note #408), running with virtually no money, came within two points of Amy McGrath in the 2020 Democratic primary. She was a prodigious fund raiser and the national favorite to take on Mitch McConnell.  Booker relied on organizing supporters and has created a kind of movement – From the hood to the holler.  Neither of his parents went to college.  Money for food was a struggle. He made it through college and law school at the University of Louisville, worked for the state and the city and served a term as a state rep.  He inspires his followers.  His opponent is incumbent Rand Paul, the son of Libertarian former Congressman Ron Paul. Paul blocked the 9/11 victim compensation fund, wanted to name the whistle blower who complained Trump tried to intimidate Zelensky, describes himself as 100% pro-life, insists that the executive order that created DACA was illegal, and could be considered the foremost foreign policy isolationist in the Senate.

  • On September 12 538 said that Charles Booker would win less than 1 time out of 100 times. He would probably lose by a 38.9 — 61.1margin.
  • Recent polls could tell us something, but there has been only one poll and it is much too long ago.
    • An independently funded A- rated poll reported on January 22nd that Booker was behind by 16.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Charles Booker had less than $1 million for his campaign; Rand Paul had $9.2 million

Indiana

Thomas McDermott Jr. (Political Note #420) is a candidate who Democrats have given little or no support to while Republicans have been complacent. He is the five term mayor of Hammond, Indiana; the Democratic son of a Republican mayor of that city.  He lived with his divorced mother in California and joined the navy after high school.   When he came home, he got his BA from Purdue Northwest, his law degree from Notre Dame, and practiced law in Hammond.  He ran for mayor, winning by 700 votes and survived the old fashioned rough and tumble politics of the area.  Recent wins have been by more than 80%.  Thomas McDermott Jr is brash. Open his website, you are greeted with his picture and a heading: “All Hoosier, No Bullshit. He touts the successes that led the US Conference of Mayors to award Hammond its Livability Award and the Governor of Indiana to name him a Sagamore of the Wabash. His opponent, Todd Young, is Indiana’s respectable Senator. He seeks to be bi-partisan.  He acknowledged Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, though only at the very last minute before the interrupted electoral college vote counting began. A recent poll, the only poll of this race, suggests the election is surprisingly close.

  • On September 12 538 said that Tom McDermott Jr would win 1 time out of 100 times. He would probably lose by a 38.9 — 58.4 margin.
  • Recent polls, or in this case, the only poll could tell us something.
    • A McDermott funded B- rated poll reported on August 24th that McDermott was behind by 3 points.
  • Open Secrets reported that on July 1 Tom McDermott Jr had $165,000 for his campaign; Todd Young had $6.8 million

Missouri

Trudy Busch Valentine was a late entry to the Missouri Democratic Party Senate Primary.  She could afford to be late; she is the heir to the Busch fortune, described by Forbes as the 16th largest in the country.  She defeated anti-corporate activist Lance Kunce by a relatively narrow 5 points and is now facing Missouri’s Attorney General.

Trudy Busch Valentine attended St. Louis university where she got a degree in nursing in 1980.  In 2019, St. Louis University’s nursing school was named the Trudy Busch Valentine School of nursing.  In 2007, five years after the death of her 49 year old husband, attorney John Dee Valentine, she earned a Master of Arts in pastoral studies from the Aquinas Institute of Theology, an extension of her life-long commitment to Catholicism.  She is currently married to John Fries who she met in 2015.

Trudy Busch Valentine describes herself as a nurse and an advocate for children.  This is not to say her life was solely about nursing and philanthropy.  The death of her son from an opioid overdose spurred her to a particular commitment to ending the opioid crisis.  She refers to the importance of women’s voices in her decision to take an interest in electoral politics.  The first issue on her website is “protecting safe and legal abortion.” The second is “standing with the LGBTQ community.”

Her opponent, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, is a graduate of a Jesuit High School, Truman State University, and St. Louis University law school. As Missouri’s attorney general, he has sought to have courts put an end to the Affordable Care Act, covid-related mask requirements, and workplace discrimination protections for LGBT people.  He opposed the Biden administration’s environmental policies, sued China for its responsibility for the covid epidemic (so did Mississippi), and joined other Attorneys General in attempting to invalidate the 2020 election.

  • On September 12 538 said that Trudy Busch Valentine would win 2 times out of 100 times. She would probably lose by a 39.0 – 55.7 margin.
  • Recent polls could tell us something.
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on August 25th that Busch Valentine was behind by 11 points.
    • An independently funded B rated poll reported on August 16th that Busch Valentine was behind by 11 points
  • Open Secrets reported that mid-July Trudy Busch Valentine had $700,000 for her campaign; Eric Schmitt had $1 million

Last thoughts

If you had $1,000 to give, you might consider

$200 for

Raphael Warnock of Georgia, the most endangered Democratic q    incumbent

$100 for

Catherine Cortez Masto whose reelection is also problematic

Mandela Barnes who has a good chance of defeating an incumbent

Cheri Beasley, who leads polls not funded by Republicans

Michael Bennet whose reelection may be in danger,

$75 for

Mark Kelly who is winning, but still. Do not be overconfident

Maggie Hassan, same as above

Val Demings who could defeat a weakened Rubio

Tim Ryan, who could win in Republican Ohio against a weak Republican

John Fetterman, who is the Democrats best hope for flipping a seat

$50 for

            Evan McMullin who is a long shot in Utah

            Mike Franken who is an equal long shot in Iowa

$25 for

            Charles Booker as a representative of the longest shots

            Another donation to Tom McDermott Jr.

            A donation to Trudy Busch Valentine

            Patty Murray because you should never be overconfident

Did you notice?  That comes to $1,175.  Spend more than you planned.

 

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