Americans vote during the pandemic. Are the votes in May an indication of how elections will turn out in November? Are the votes in May an indication of what kind of democracy we will have in November?
Consider Nebraska’s primary. In 2008, 20% of Nebraskans voted in the May primary. In 2012, 22%, in 2016, 23%. In 2020, 34% voted. We are not comparing apples to apples. Before 2020, Nebraska had Presidential caucuses. The primaries were only for state and local offices. In 2020, Nebraska had Presidential primaries along with state and local primaries. By the time Nebraska voted in its primaries, decisions about who would be the Presidential nominees were already decided. Call that 34% a vote for Democracy.
Nebraska’s primary was also a vote for moving the Democratic Party left. Kara Eastman, the 2018 surprise nominee for NE 02 won the primary again. By a 2-1 margin. She lost by 3 points in the 2018 general. Can she make up those points now that she has national Democrats with her?
There were two Congressional special elections in May – one in Wisconsin and one in California. Both were victories for democracy, but not for the Democrats. There were no signs of reduced turnout in either election. Plenty of people voted by mail and, this may be a shock to the President, Republicans won. The Wisconsin seat was a Republican seat and was carried by a slightly smaller margin than might be expected – 14 points instead of 20. The California seat had been Republican until 2018 and was returned to the Republican fold by an 8 point margin. The contests in November will involve the same candidates in both states. With the results be the same?
In Massachusetts, two formerly Republican State Senate seats were lost to Democrats. Now there are only four Republican State Senators. Is this some kind of sign for November? As Massachusetts goes, so goes Rhode Island?
Consider May an indication to all of us that elections will happen in November. People will vote. This is not to say that Republicans won’t find a way to prevent some Democrats from voting. This is to say that, by mail or in person, people will vote if they possibly can. Republicans will even vote by mail. Democrats, if they weren’t already aware, should know that they cannot be complacent about November