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August 2nd , 2024 Len’s Letter #72 What the world can tell us about their elections and ours
2024 General Election
Three months to go. November will be a fateful election for the United States. 2024 has been a busy year for elections – throughout the world. What can we learn from the world’s elections this year and the years preceding?
Italy in 2022
Geogia Meloni
Central to this election was the return of Fascism to Italy. Georgia Meloni, leading the Brothers of Italy, a party descended from the original Fascist Party, gained a majority in Parliament. The campaign was marked by opposition to immigrants, support for the traditional family, and dislike for membership in the EU.
Proposed blockades, agreements with Tunisia, and EU distribution around Europe have not worked well. Prohibition of children via same sex marriage and surrogacy have led people to go abroad to have children. Getting them registered, however, has been a problem. Surprisingly, Meloni has proved to be a supporter of NATO and a supporter of Ukraine. Her goal, some suggest, is to demonstrate the reliability of the Italian right.
Brazil in 2022
Lula da Silva, President
October, 2022. In the second round and, therefore, head to head voting, a socialist and the former president, who had been jailed for corruption then freed by further judicial processes, defeated the extreme right wing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by a 51-49 margin. No strongman, Bolsonaro disappeared from view. Turnout in both rounds was 79%.
In parliament, Lula’s party gained only 81 seats, fewer than Bolsonaro’s More right wing Deputies were elected than those of the left.
Israel in 2022
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
After four previous deadlocked parliaments, Netanyahu promised victory and stability. His majority was built around his traditionally center-right Likud, traditional religious parties, and extremist religious parties. Stability was not the result. Huge demonstrations of opposition responded to plans to give the government greater control over the judiciary. Harassment of Arabs in the West Bank and the consequent resistance continued.
The intentionally brutal attack by Gaza’s Hamas. The consequent Israeli response, less intentionally brutal, but more widespread and killing 40,000, a majority of them civilians. Israel and Hamas are negotiating, but may be so much at odds that the war will continue and Netanyahu will stay in office.
Poland in 2023
Prime Minister Donald Tusk
A coalition of two center coalitions and a left wing party obtained 248 seats in the 460 seat Sejm and flipped control from a majority that had been dominated by nationalist and religious extremists. The win was a democratic resurgence and a victory for a free press and an independent judiciary as well as issues like the availability of abortion and legal same sex marriage. Election turnout was 74%, an increase of 13%.
Taiwan in 2024 – January
President Lai Ching-te
The dominant issue for this island 100 miles from the shore of China is that country’s claim that Taiwan is a province. A central issue in every election in Taiwan is the nature of its relationship with China, with which it maintains cultural and economic ties. In January 2024, to replace its first female president, Tsai Ing-wen, who had completed the maximum allowed two terms, Taiwan chose among three presidential candidates. Lai Ching-te continued the dominance of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but with. only 40% of the vote. This is the first time a President was elected with a minority of the vote.
The Kuomintang Party (which descends from the he authoritarian and military opposition to the Chinese Communists whose leadership and army was driven from the mainland came in second. The third party, reformed in 2019 and named after an anti-Japanese, anti-fascist party active during the Japanese conquest, deprived Lai’s party of a majority. 72% of eligible voters voted.
The world watches how the permanent conversation about Taiwan’s relationship with and fear of China is affected by the historical roots of each of the parties.
Indonesia – February
President Prabowo Subianto
Indonesia is the fourth largest country in the world. Freedom House counts Indonesia as only partly free, but notes that Indonesia has made strides toward greater freedom since the overthrow of an authoritarian regime in 1998. Nevertheless, they comment on the extent to which corruption among officials continues as does harassment of minorities. They also describe recent legislation that “restricts insults directed at governmental institutions, expands restrictions on blasphemy, criminalizes cohabitation of unmarried people,” and more. Nevertheless, 83% of the eligible voters voted.
Three candidates ran for president. Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra Party (a nationalist, far right party), received 59% of the vote (also electing the former president’s son who ran for VP in violation of a constitutional age requirement). Anies Baswedan, who ran as an independent, received 25% of the vote, and Ganjar Pranowo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (center left, secular and nationalist), received 16% of the vote.
Can this overwhelmingly Islamic country continue to move toward democracy? Is that what Prabowo Subianto wants?
South Korea — April
President Yoon Suk-Yeol
South Korea elections in 2024 were mid-terms that occurred after redistricting. And might be considered a referendum on President Yoon Suk-Yeol and his center-liberal coalition. The governing coalition increased its number of seats over two conservative parties. Also in opposition is a new party critical of the prosecutions of former presidents for their abuse of power. 67% of those eligible, voted.
South Africa – May
President Cyril Ramaphosa
The South Africa election in May was a departure. Cyrl Ramaphos led the African National Congress to a plurality and modern South Africa’s first coalition government. To form a government, they joined with a predominantly white party that descends from opponents to the racist governing Boer party during the days of Apartheid and a small radical party called the Economic Freedom Fighters.
Not in the coalition is the uMkhonto weSizwe party led by former ANC member and former President Jacob Zuma who is from what is now the KwaZulu-Natal province. He had been dismissed from the position of Prime Minister for corruption. In an echo of American politics, he claimed the vote was rigged, that his party received a majority of votes, not 15%.
Central issues to this campaign were the disaffection of the Zulu, the inability of the ANC to make sufficient economic progress, corruption, and the strongman Jacob Zuma and the cult that supports him.
Portugal — May
Luis Monetenegro
Center-right party leader Luis Montenegro has become the leader of Portugal after elections were called because, six months earlier, the socialist prime minister’s official residence was raided and his immediate subordinates were arrested on corruption charges. The election results did not provide an automatic winner. The center-right alliance gained three seats and won a total of 80 seats in the 230 member parliament, the most of any group. The socialist party, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos, lost 42 seats after the scandal and was reduced to 78 seats. The extremist and populist right party Chega, which had, less than a decade earlier, been denied registration as a political party, gained 38 seats and was at 50 seats.
Montenegro rejected the possibility of cooperating with Chega. Instead, he is leading a minority government and has developed an informal arrangement with the socialists as they work to find enough common ground to allow for a stable government.
India – April through June
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Freedom House ranks India as only partly free6. Nevertheless, India just completed the largest election the world has ever seen. The partly free designation was earned as a result of the government’s discrimination against and persecution of Muslims, limitations on freedom of expression including restricting access to BBC broadcasts and disqualification and imprisonment of Rahul Ghandi, who was leader of the opposition. India is among the world’s poorest countries with GDP per capita at $8,379. That number earns India a rank of 120thin the world.
In the 2024 election, 67% of those eligible voted. Narendra Modi’s. party received 37% of the vote, a slight dip from the last election, which also rounded to 37%. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a Hindu religious nationalist party that leads a right wing conservative coalition called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP lost seats – from 303 to 240. That left Modi and his party with less than a majority of the 543 seat Lok Sabha or House of the People. With his NDA colleagues’ support, however, Modi remains Prime Minister with 293 seats.
The India National Congress (socialist and secular), under one Ghandi after another, was the leader in India’s post-colonial period and sustained government leadership until 1996. The current party leader is Mallikarjun Kharge who leads both the Congress Party and its alliance called INDIA, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance. He claimed a moral victory increasing the party’s percentage of the vote from 19% to 21%, increasing its number of seats from 52 to 99, and with the INDIA alliance, a total of 234 seats. The percentage of the vote of the two alliances shows Modi’s group winning 42.5 to 40.6. A moral victory, indeed.
Mexico – June
President Claudia Sheinbaum (She does not take office until fall)
Mexico is the country with the 10th largest population in the world – just under 130 million. Its per capita GDP is $21,512, making it the 71st highest in the world. Mexico is considered to be only partly free by Freedom House. The principal factor for the partly free designation appears to be the impact of widespread criminal gangs which leads to corruption of public officials, violence during elections including attacks on disfavored candidates, and attacks on journalists as well. 61% of those eligible voted.
Mexico presidents in Mexico are limited to a single six year termsucceeded her mentor Andres Manual Lopez Obrador winning with 61% of the vote. Sheinbaum’s challenge will be to cope with the United States on its northern border and to deal with the gangs that create corruption among Mexico’s elected and confounds Mexico’s society and economy.
European Union – June
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
The twenty-seven states in the European Union elect representatives based on their apportioned number of seats in the European Parliament using their own country’s electoral laws. The elected delegates join coalitions of European Parties that serve as a starting point for selecting a leader.
The European Parliament has 720 seats and coalitions with names used just for the EU. The results below are preliminary. Counting takes a long time, but it appears that the center right and further right coalition will continue to govern. However, additional far right electeds and a reduction in the number of seats held by the governing coalition could create a change in tone in the Parliament.
The European Parliament has elected Ursula von de Leyen as Commission President. Although the landscape has changed and the group that last selected the President lost a net of 38 seats, an expanded centrist group appears to have focused on defeating the extremist right.
France – July
President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emanuel Macron’s reaction to the substantial successes of the National Rally IRN) success in the election to the European parliament was to call a snap election for the 577 seat National Assembly. His rationale was, apparently, that faced with the possibility of governance by the extreme right wing, the French will come to their senses.
As in the United States, one of the main issues is and has been the extent of immigration. In the first round, the far right National Rally (RN) received plurality 33% of the vote. The second round in France is designed to be a little like an American top two primary. Except that a third candidate can be included in the run off if he or she gets 12.5% of the total registered voters (perhaps 20% of the actual voters). Voter turnout was about 66% in both rounds.
In order to prevent the far right from getting a majority, 217 third place candidates withdrew from the election, The candidate withdrawals worked. In the second round, the leftwing NFP alliance won 182 seats, Macron’s centrists won 163 and the far-right RN and its allies won 143.
Macron remains President, the Prime Minister, a fellow member of the centrist Ensemble group resigned. Macron has asked him to remain temporarily. Macron will need to name a Prime Minister who can get majority approval from the Assembly.
United Kingdom – July
Prime Minister Keir Starmer
United Kingdom held its election on July 4, the day the United States celebrates independence from England. The United Kingdom chose a new Parliament which, in turn, has chosen its Prime Minister. Like France and the United States, immigration is an issue. One of the principal reasons for Brexit’s passage was an expectation its passage would lead to fewer immigrants. The Tories have been proposing and not quite bringing to completion a plan to deport undocumented immigrants to Rwanda, paying Rwanda for accepting them.
Despite getting only 32% of the vote, Labour gained 211 seats to have 411 seats in the 650 member House of Commons. The Tories lost 251 seats and were down to 121. The Liberal Democrats, not needed to form a government, gained 64 seats to be at 72. The Conservatives did so badly because third parties, like Neil Farage’s Reform UK collected a high percentage of the vote if not many seats.
Keir Starmer promised a moderate and common sense government. We will have to wait to see how they do.
Iran – June/July
Iran scheduled a special election because of the accidental helicopter death of its president. With a score of 11, Freedom House rates Iran as not free. Nevertheless, Iran has a national election for president.
One aspect of Iran’s lack of freedom is that candidates for President must be approved by the Guardian Council. The Guardian Council approved 8 candidates and surprisingly, one of them — Masoud Pezeshkian – was a reformer. He campaigned explaining that because power rests with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he would be unlikely to change much as President. Masoud Pezeshkian emerged from the very low turnout (just under 40%) first round with 44% of the vote and earned 55% of the vote in the somewhat higher turnout second round (a touch under 50%) defeating an extreme conservative.
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei praised the country for holding “free and transparent elections.” Of course, the elections would have been freer if there had been no requirement for approval of candidates by the Guardian Council or if the Guardian Council had approved every candidate who expressed an interest in running. As for governing the country, Masoud Pezeshkian, the only approved candidate with a reform orientation, understands, as does the electorate, that all decisions go through Ali Khamenei and that the new President would have little independent authority to affect the lives of the people of Iran.
United States – November
President Joe Biden/Vice President Kamala Harris
The United States is composed of 50 states. On November 5 the United States will choose a President, elect a new House of Representatives and one third of its Senate. Almost all redistricting questions have been settled. The candidates for the Republican and Democratic Parties are settled.
The opposition Republican candidate is a cult figure and aspiring “strong man”, Donald Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee.
The United State has no second round, unlike the French or the Iranians. Third parties will collect a small percentage of the vote and have affected who the winner was in various states. Since the actual presidential election is undertaken by an electorate college chosen by states it is possible for the winner of the majority of the vote in the country to lose the election as was the case in 2016 and 2000 and was very nearly the case in 2020.
Legislative elections occur as well in 2024. The United States Congress has 435 members and is closely divided. The House of Representatives currently has 218 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 4 vacancies. All seats are up for election in 2024. The US Senate has 100 seats, 2 for each state. The Senate now has 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 4 independents each of whom vote, for organizing purposes, with the Democrats. One third of the seats are up for election in 2024. Substantially more Democrats are up for election than Republicans, creating an opportunity to change control of the Senate.
Donald Trump has made opposition to what he calls illegal immigrants central to his campaign. The Supreme Court, of which he appointed one third of the members, has overturned, to the great pleasure of the religious right, a previous opinion that declared abortion as a constitutional right. The Court has weakened the executive’s ability to regulate various aspects of American and corporate life by limiting the authority of various agencies. The court has also gone farther than what most would have expected in providing the President of the United States with immunity from criminal charges. There is now a focus on a plan for what a Trump administration would look like — beginning with replacing civil service workers with political loyalists. There also appears to be a list of 350 people the Republicans plan to charge with treason.
.What can we learn from these elections?
This is my 9th revision. Let’s hope 9 times is a charm.
We know that Donald Trump is a cheat (In New York City, where I am writing from, many people have stories about how Donald Trump refused to pay their legitimate bill or a legitimate bill of a friend). We can expect corruption in a Donald Trump presidency. Mexico has become only a partial democracy because corruption and corruption-related violence has distorted elections and governance. Portugal, on the other hand, after a popular prime minister was found entangled in corruption, the prime minister resigned. Two things happened in the election to replace him. An extreme right wing party grew. The previous opposition party, by a two seat margin, received a plurality of the seats in parliament, formed a government, and governs with the cooperation of the previous governing party. We have learned that corruption can erode democracy, trust among the established parties can prevent that erosion. Can the United States prevent that erosion if Donald Trump is elected President again?
We know that Donald Trump has transformed (or completed a transformation of) the Republican Party from a center-right party to an extreme right party. We know that Donald Trump has focused on the dangers of immigrants to American society. The problem of immigrants has been central to politics in Italy, the United Kingdom, France, and elsewhere in Europe. Right wing parties have divided their countries on this issue. Immigration was central for the United Kingdom in the Brexit decision. It was central in the Tories ridiculous plan to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda. The EU sought a solution for Italy. The EU hoped to redistribute immigrants to Italy around Europe and to reduce immigration from Tunisia by funding Tunisia’s efforts to stop people from leaving. Neither part of the plan worked. In France, the accusation that Muslims do not have a commitment to the country has contributed to the strengthening of the National Rally party. In the United States, the Democratic Party is on the verge of nominating a woman who is the daughter of an immigrant from Jamaica and an immigrant from India. We have learned that immigration is an international problem that requires international cooperation. We have also learned that just saying that is insufficient. If we cannot get countries to cut back on the causes of global warming, can we expect them to cooperate on the immigration issue? Non-draconian responses may be possible only if the United States leads the way. That could happen if the country is led a woman who is a child of immigrants.
We know that the extreme right is torn about whether to pretend they are just another party or are attempting to overthrow ordinary politics. In the UK, Reform UK got enough votes to turn a Labour victory into a Labour landslide. In Portugal, Chega drove the establishment parties into working together. In France, the National Rally, even while attempting to seem less scary, drove the Left and Center to work together, perhaps temporarily. In Israel, the extreme right parties have driven Israel into a war that is isolating the country from the rest of the world. In Italy, the extreme right party has gained control of the government. Italy, under that leadership has been retrograde domestically, but cooperative internationally. And in the United States, the extreme right has taken over the Republican Party and could win the next election. We have learned that the extreme right can win, but not in the face of united opposition. We have learned that when the extreme right does win, it must decide how dangerous it will be to national institutions and the international order.
We know that strong, cult-like leaders can show disdain for the law and for legal processes. While I did not write above about either Russia or Pakistan, we know that Russia has assassinated domestic opponents and ruled opposing parties and individuals out of elections. The tactic has left the government challenged only on the fringes. In Pakistan, the military arrested the president and has now outlawed his party. The result will make the former president and his party stronger if people are willing to defy the army. In Iran several candidates were ruled ineligible for the run for president, leaving only one reformist candidate. He was popular enough to win the presidency, while he explained constitutional control by the religious leader would prevent him from acting. In India, the President has continued his campaign to make Muslims second class citizens and to gain more absolute authority. In the elections, he lost ground – not so much in his party’s percent of the vote, but in where the votes were and the loss of seats in parliament. In South Africa, the former President who had been ousted for corruption found his party in third place and himself frozen out of government while he claimed the election counting was rigged – that he actually won a majority not 15%. In Brazil, the socialist former president won a narrow victory over the extreme right wing incumbent whose lack of a cult following left him helpless. In the United States, we will see what happens. In 2020, Donald Trump treated losing an election as if it were an obstacle in buying an office building. Even after losing the election, he tried to stay in office. We have learned that cult-like leaders and their followers with disdain for the rule of law can wreak terrible harm on a country. We have learned that these dangerous leaders can be turned back by national institutions and free elections.
We know that several countries have mechanisms that distort or destroy democracy. Russia is the most extreme as opponents of the government are jailed or murdered or excluded from the ballot. Iran has a formal system for excluding people from the ballot. But democratic countries have systems, too. With a little more than 30% of the vote, the United Kingdom awarded 63% of the seats in Parliament to the Labour Party. That is a product of the first past the post system of election. Plurality wins in every constituency.
France was different. The right win National Rally received a plurality with more than 33% of the vote in the first round. Very few seats were won with an outright majority. Where no candidate received a majority, a second round was required. The top two candidates plus, a third candidate, if that candidate received 12.5% or more of the eligible voters (roughly 20% of those voting). In a somewhat coordinated effort, more than 200 third place candidates withdrew in order to combine the left and center to defeat the extreme right. That effort succeeded. The effort succeeded because the left had been surprisingly united for the first round. In the second round, the left’s total declined from 28% to 26%; Macron’s center coalition gained from 21% to 24.5%, and the National Rally gained from 33% to 37%. But 37% is far from a majority.
The somewhat united left won 180 seats. Macron’s Ensemble won 159 seats. And the National Rally won 142 seats. The left and center, in sum, had 59% of the 577 seats in the National Assembly – gained through the 50.5% of the total vote they had received. There is something to be said for a system that ensures a majority vote – whether through a second round (as in France and in many states in the US) or through ranked voting (which, in the United States was pioneered by Maine).
There is nothing good to be said about the American system of choosing a Chief Executive. The Electoral College has led, now, to minority Presidents being chosen in 2000 and 2016 – two of the five times that has happened. Startlingly, 19 of the United States presidents, including 1992, 1996, and 2000 did not receive 50% of the vote. The United States really does have to rethink how it elects its Presidents. The electoral college is only a part of the problem. We also need to have a way to ensure that the president who is elected has earned a majority of those voting. And we need a system that ensures that everyone is, in fact, able to vote.
Meanwhile, we have to work with the system we have. DONATE to Kamala Harris. A former prosecutor, state attorney general, and the current US vice president; an articulate and enthusiastic speaker; the child of immigrants and a person of color; and no less an American patriot than previous generations of children of immigrants, she is the future and the hope of the United States of America. If she is elected.