Coupling loosely
If you read about how organizations are coupled – loosely or tightly, one thing is clear. These are terms that are a fit for discussions of computer software.
You may want to skip the following paragraph.
Wikipedia says: Components in a loosely coupled system can be replaced with alternative implementations that provide the same services. Components in a loosely coupled system are less constrained to the same platform, language, operating system, or built environment. If systems are decoupled in time, it is difficult to also provide transactional integrity; additional coordination protocols are required. Data replication across different systems provides loose coupling (in availability) but create issues in maintaining consistency (data synchronization).
Keep it simple.
Tightly coupled organizations are tightly controlled. Loosely coupled organizations have less control and may be less permanent.
Robert Dreeben and a co-author used these terms to describe schools. School principals cannot enforce an effort to ensure that all teachers are teaching the same thing in the same way. In that respect, schools are loosely coupled. Teachers are (or, at least, used to be) too autonomous for enforcement.
School principals usually have considerable authority regarding which teacher is assigned to teach which group of students. In that respect schools are tightly coupled regardless of principals inability tocontrol what and how teachers teach.
We are entering the 2020 presidential campaign. Elizabeth Warren has announced her candidacy. Kamala Harris will be announcing her candidacy. Others are making announcements or getting ready to make announcements.
Analysts are analyzing. Primary voters and caucus attenders are picking candidates. You will choose who you like.
Nate Silver has described five categories of voters.
- Party Loyalists
- The Left
- Millennials and their friends
- Black voters
- Hispanic voters (and Asians who may vote with them)
Party Loyalists, he says, are more likely than those in other groups to support Joe Biden. Members of The Left are more likely than those in other groups to support Bernie Sanders – or, maybe, Elizabeth Warren. Millennials and their friends are more likely than those in other groups to support Beto O’Rourke. Black voters may be more likely to support Kamala Harris or Cory Booker. Hispanic voters may prefer Julian Castro. A winning candidate needs to gain substantial support from at least three of these groups.
THIS IS A PLEA
Do not hold on too tightly. Couple yourself to a candidate loosely.
When your candidate falls behind. Loses. Drops out. Accept the loss. Look for the next candidate.
This will cost you money. Support the candidate you love. If that doesn’t work out, support the candidate you love a little less.
THIS IS A PLEA
Tout your candidate’s strengths. Describe what you see as other candidates’ weaknesses. That’s OK. Describe the weaknesses in a way that will allow you to join that candidate if your candidate falters. The candidate you have criticized may become the nominee. Describe weaknesses in a way that does not diminish other candidate for the general election.
THIS A PLEA
Remember. Every serious Democratic candidate for President is a vast improvement over what we have now. Approach the presidential campaign with that in mind.
Notes from the past.
Readers ask. How did my predictions work for 2017 and 2018? I’ll tell you below. A high percentage is not what I was after. The focus was on candidates who might lose; who might win; candidate for whom a little bit of help might make a difference. A Democrat who a few of you supported who won by 100 votes would be the model subject of a Political Note.
Congressional races were the heart of the Notes. I wrote about 86 Congressional candidates running in the 2018 Congressional election. 48 won. 33 lost. Four withdrew. One race is not resolved.
I also wrote about nine special elections for Congress. Seven lost; two won.
I wrote about three special elections for the US Senate. Doug Jones and Tina Smith won. Mike Espy lost.
I wrote about seventeen US Senate races. Ten won. Seven lost.
Many Notes were about state level elections.
Nine were special legislative elections in states that ranged from Connecticut to Washington from Oklahoma to Florida. Seven won. Two lost.
Twenty were for general elections for state legislatures. Most of those were in Virginia part of an effort that was almost achieved – to get a Democratic majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. There were 16 wins, 4 losses, and one withdrawal. One Virginia loss was actually a tie, decided for the Republican by drawing lots.
Eighteen Notes were about candidates for Governor. Ten won. Eight lost.
Four Notes were about candidates for other offices, the most important of which may have been the North Carolina Supreme Court. All four of those races were won by Democrats.
I preferred to avoid primaries. My goal was to elect Democrats. I really didn’t want to choose among Democrats.
In two instances, I did not pay enough attention. An insurgent Democrats who I discounted or did not know was coming defeated the more conventional candidate in a primary. I had written a Note to support each of the more conventional candidates for the general election. Sadly, both of the very appealing insurgent candidates lost in the general election.
In one instance, I supported a progressive Democrat against a deeply social conservative Democratic Member of Congress in a district that would elect a Democrat no matter what. The progressive Democrat lost. The incumbent was reelected.
In five instances, I wrote to support NO IDC New York Senate candidates. The IDC (Independent Democratic Caucus) had been organizing with Republicans in the New York Senate, giving the Republicans control of that body. Four of the five NO IDC candidates I wrote about won their primary and were elected to the New York Senate, which is now overwhelmingly Democratic. Of the eight total IDC candidates six lost in the primary.
Some meaningless numbers: In elections against Republicans, 83 Democrats about whom I wrote Notes were elected. 58 were not. In primaries, 4 candidates about whom I wrote won the primary and were elected; 4 did not win the primary.