James Ramsay, writing for Gothamist and WNYC, drawing on work by Rachel Bitecofer, says it doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate. Except for one thing.
In recent polls, “the Democrats, compared to each other, do equally well in match-ups against Trump.” Any of the Democratic candidates for President are likely winners. Except for one thing….
Bernie Sanders is the riskiest choice.
He is risky because so many in the Democratic Party think he is not electable. Rachel Bitecofer explains the real risk. She points to the 2018 House race in Nebraska’s 2nd District.
A young, progressive head of a non-profit won the primary – defeating the mainstream candidate – a moderate former Congressman trying to get his seat back. The Democratic Party “took their foot off the gas.” The DCCC did not invest in the race.
Notwithstanding that lack of investment, Bitecofer wrote, the progressive candidate lost by the same amount that the incumbent Democrat had lost in 2016. Botecofer was close enough. Kara Eastman lost, in 2018, 51-49, by 4,945 votes. In 2016, the incumbent Democrat, Kara Eastman’s primary opponent, Brad Ashford, lost 49-48, by 3,464 votes.
Brad Ashford lost by less than Kara Eastman did. On the other hand, he had the benefit of Ba Libertarian candidate taking votes away from his opponent. Bitecofer’s inference is right. Had the DCCC supported Kara Eastman, she might have won.
If Sanders is the nominee and Democrats “take the foot off the gas,” Sanders will lose. If Mike Bloomfield doesn’t invest the billions he promised; if Tom Steyer doesn’t invest the hundreds of millions he promised, whoever the Democratic nominee is, Trump will be reelected.
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