In 2017 and 2018, Democrats lost a bunch of elections. They lost by narrowed margins — a clue to the 2018 Blue Wave that brought a Democratic House of Representatives.
2019 looked discouraging. Particularly disappointing were Republican flips of Democratic state legislative seats – in Minnesota and Connecticut. Three Democrats who left the legislature to work for new governors created open Democratic seats that elected Republicans.
March ended a little better. In Louisiana, Democrat Jeremy LaCambe held a vulnerable House seat 69-31, beating both Hillary Clinton’s margin and Barack Obama’s margin. Independent Roy Daryl Adams flipped a Republican House seat in a district won by Trump and Romney by double digits. A large turnout, particularly a large African-American turnout was a factor here. This is a victory whether or not Adams caucuses with Democrats.
April began with mixed results. Democrats continue to win in big cities. Chicago elected Lori Lightfoot mayor, a gay African-American woman; defeating another African-American woman overwhelmingly. Lightfoot’s opponent was embarrassed by her close ties to the city political machine that was having one more corruption scandal. Two Democrats emerged from the non-partisan primary Kansas City, Missouri.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat Pam Iovino flipped a Republican Senate seat with a 54-46 victory. That brings Republican control of the Pennsylvania Senate down to 26-22. With a Democratic Lt. Governor, that Democrats are within three seats of control of the Pennsylvania Senate.
Except for Wisconsin. This would have been a great start to April, except for Wisconsin. Republican Jim Hagedorn, at least as retrograde as Brett Kavanaugh, is leading Lisa Neubauer 50.2 to 49.8 – a margin of about 5,500 votes. There will be a recount. Don’t get your hopes up. A Hagedorn victory expands the conservative majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Don’t count on Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election either.